Yelich's Decline and the Brewers' Current Offense

This is not a piece laying blame at the feet of Christian Yelich for the Brewers' inability to reach the World Series or for "hurting" the club with his nine-year, $215 million contract. It's simply a look at how much President of Baseball Operations David Stearns planned to lean on Yelich's incredible production, with a blueprint to surround the (basically) two-time MVP with decent but unspectacular hitters. I recently watched highlights from 2018 and 2019, and it is easy to forget just how insanely amazing Yelich performed in those years.

Stop. Pitching. To. Yelich.

That's 3 for the MVP! pic.twitter.com/ZJpKTbu2Tb

— MLB (@MLB) April 16, 2019

Christian Yelich playing like the NL MVP pic.twitter.com/zXJ2q46w1B

— SI MLB (@si_mlb) September 30, 2018

What Yelich did in the second half of 2018 was as close to a Barry Bonds type of run as we've seen - albeit for a much shorter time. We know one fantastic hitter doesn't make a lineup potent; however, a truly feared player that delivers every night and can change a game's outcome with one swing makes a world of difference. No matter what statistics you want to use, Yelich of 2018-19 was disgusting in all the right ways.

These are truly incredible numbers. Aside from Mookie Betts and Mike Trout, Yelich was the best hitter in MLB those two seasons. You can see why the Brewers relied so heavily on him when you look at 36 and 44 home runs in those seasons, leading to 110 and 97 RBI, respectively. And keep in mind Yelich's 2019 season was cut short by the fractured kneecap limiting him to only 130 games. Despite the freak injury, nobody thought Yelich would become a shell of himself in the following seasons. Maybe in six or seven years as he hit his mid-30s, but not right now.

Unfortunately, the fall-off was immediate, and its depth of decline remains staggering. 

Even leaving out 2020 for obvious reasons, the slide from elite power bat to slap hitter with on-base skills is tragic. One number to focus on is Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), the most comprehensive statistic for offensive performance. Let's say Yelich gets up to 110 wRC+ this season (he is currently at 106); that is more than 60 wRC+ "lost" from the 2019 version of Yelich. Even if you expected a slight decline each year, that is a colossal production hole you need to recoup through other players.

No one has truly figured out why he ended up here, though many believe it started with the knee injury and mental barrier that could have changed his swing and aggressiveness. Being 30 years old doesn't help either, but one can't blame the swift and cavernous valley on age alone.

As with most things, it's likely a combination of many factors, including the ridiculous improvement by MLB pitchers since 2019. But again, this isn't to say fans should be chastising Yelich. By all accounts, he continues to put in the work, make adjustments to find solutions, and acknowledge that he hasn't lived up to his (or anyone else's) expectations. Frustration with him is understandable, and it's not for me to say how fans should react.

Yelich has been more productive this season than last, especially after manager Craig Counsell moved him into the leadoff spot where his current skill set better suits him. Despite a recent 0-for-23 cold spell, he's coming out of the St. Louis Cardinals series with a .354 OBP and 107 OPS+. No, it isn't "good enough" for what he was supposed to be and what his contract provides, but it's not an abject failure, either. The problem is that Yelich's current production has prevented the Brewers' offense from reaching stable success like Stearns planned.

At the same time, Yelich's unforeseen dip doesn't absolve Stearns of the current situation. Milwaukee displayed its true offensive colors in 2021, even after acquiring Willy Adames to spark their production. Whether by choice or lack of options, Milwaukee mostly remained the same type of offense without an elite bat's legitimate, everyday threat in the lineup. And as the offense continued to be Jekyll and Hyde most nights before the trade deadline, no one was brought in to help redistribute Yelich's expected numbers elsewhere.

Perhaps the Brewers thought Adames would step into that role, but unfortunately, he has had his ups and downs, too. Without a hitter like Yelich at his peak (or someone close), the offense Stearns put together isn't nearly as effective. It was never meant to be a "star and scrubs" lineup, but reliant on that key anchor in the middle that gets help from complementary pieces every game. Unfortunately, without the big bat, the offense finds it more difficult to reach their potential regularly. Sure, Yelich's contract is a hinderance to more spending (in theory). The truth is, the Brewers, like all MLB teams, could easily push their payroll higher without great risk to the bottom line.

What does it all mean? Baseball, like life, is more unpredictable than we can imagine. Even things that are "guarantees" can quickly fade into disappointment. Stearns clearly had a plan that revolved around Yelich as the nucleus of the offense that would drive everyone else to succeed on a higher level. Yelich lost something, and Stearns lost his preferred offense without enough answers in time to turn things around.

This doesn't mean the team is terrible, Yelich is trash, and the offense will never do enough. There is talent all around, Yelich included, but the Brewers have to find different ways to make it all work after the grand Yelich plan had to go out the window. I'll still take issue with Stearns' lack of assertiveness on the market for a hitter, grumble when the offense fails to score more than three runs, and long to see the Yelich of a few seasons ago. At the same time, I'll be there every night rooting for my team and hoping that the Brewers discover new ways to land in the win column each night until they are the last ones standing.