Yelich's Decline and the Brewers' Current Offense

10 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Imagine THIS Christian Yelich is a FA. What's he going to get?

MAYBE 2/20 with a 3rd year option. So 25M guaranteed.

There's no WAY a team is taking back ~180M in contract obligations for a year and a half of Hader...who himself will cost ~17M next year.

I really don't even want to think about what it'd cost to unload Yelich contract at this point. I'm pretty sure it'd be part of a Burnes/Woodruff trade and you'd still have to eat a pretty significant chunk and take a whole lot less back in terms of prospects. 

I think the best way to proceed is just...hope Yelich can figure something out. Maybe try something different with his back and then hope he can get going again in some way or just be happy with what you've got. The horse is out of the barn. Unless he suddenly figures it out, it's a sunken cost we've just got to deal with. It sucks, but the only way forward is to try and keep churning out young, talented, valuable controllable players. We can compete while paying Yelich 26M a year(22 and then deferred money)...it's just gonna be difficult. 

Yeah, there isn't much you can do other than this. He's also got the full NTC anyway. I suppose somewhere down the line 3 or 4 years from now, if he stays somewhat productive, I could see a deal where he goes to a big market club in a salary dump type situation where we pick up half the tab, if he's receptive to moving. 

26 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Imagine THIS Christian Yelich is a FA. What's he going to get?

MAYBE 2/20 with a 3rd year option. So 25M guaranteed.

There's no WAY a team is taking back ~180M in contract obligations for a year and a half of Hader...who himself will cost ~17M next year.

I really don't even want to think about what it'd cost to unload Yelich contract at this point. I'm pretty sure it'd be part of a Burnes/Woodruff trade and you'd still have to eat a pretty significant chunk and take a whole lot less back in terms of prospects. 

I think the best way to proceed is just...hope Yelich can figure something out. Maybe try something different with his back and then hope he can get going again in some way or just be happy with what you've got. The horse is out of the barn. Unless he suddenly figures it out, it's a sunken cost we've just got to deal with. It sucks, but the only way forward is to try and keep churning out young, talented, valuable controllable players. We can compete while paying Yelich 26M a year(22 and then deferred money)...it's just gonna be difficult. 

Burnes and Yelich would basically cancel one another out, so you could get back some FV 35 prospects as face savings.

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

 

First of all, the Brewers have access to the doctors treating Yelich and his medical records,  fans don't. Second, the Brewers have access to Yelich in the off-season and could observe how he looks in whatever rehabilitation he had to do, running, hitting, etc., fans don't.  Third, the Brewers coaching staff, doctors, and front office personnel saw him in spring training before he signed the extension, I think its logical to believe they were confident in Yelich's long-term health when he signed his extension and with nearly two hundred million dollars of the owner's money at stake,  were simply not taking a guess that he'd be fully recovered from a knee cap fracture. 

As to any complaints about the timing of the extension given Yelich had years remaining on his contract when the extension was signed, keep in mind it takes two to tango. For all we know as fans, Yelich told the Brewers "it's now or never" on a contract extension. Who knows? I can tell you if Yelich had continued to crush as a Brewer and walked as a free agent, there would be a percentage of fans calling the GM an idiot for letting him walk that is equal to the percentage that are critical of the extension. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

Sure, but what they failed to do was see how any sort of recovered/healed knee and mindset translated to on-the-field performance in game situations before offering a contract extension they had no urgent need to offer.  

If Yelich's camp told the Brewers' FO that "it's now or never" in early spring 2020, I'd have simply said, "Ok, guess it's never, or we'll address this again over the next offseason when you still have 2 seasons left on your current contract"

Yelich is 30 years old this year, which would have been his last under his former contract assuming the Brewers would have picked up his 2022 option (something that would actually be very open to debate given Yelich's 2020-2021 season performance).  I'd have been just fine letting him walk after this season and not thought twice about it even if he maintained MVP-level production, because I just don't want to see the Brewers extending players longterm once they are beyond 30 years old.  

A couple of thoughts on the Yelich deal.  I hope Brewer fans stop getting attached to players/individuals, but rather enjoy the team.  If baseball is a business why do team's extend player's who have a history of injuries.  Millions of dollars are at stake that is a pretty risky venture.

I can tell you through people in the industry that arguably the biggest problem with Yelich is that he is absolutely not someone that works hard (or at all) both during the season or in the off-season.  Think Ben Sheets.  You'd literally need to walk him to the weight room for him to realize it exists.  That said, the contract he received was extended with MA and DS fully knowing that which is inexcusable, although the entire thing felt like MA's doing given the relationship with Yelich.  

40 minutes ago, TigerUppercut said:

I can tell you through people in the industry that arguably the biggest problem with Yelich is that he is absolutely not someone that works hard (or at all) both during the season or in the off-season.  Think Ben Sheets.  You'd literally need to walk him to the weight room for him to realize it exists.  That said, the contract he received was extended with MA and DS fully knowing that which is inexcusable, although the entire thing felt like MA's doing given the relationship with Yelich.  

I feel there is still hope, even this year. It is ok to play him 7th in the order against a tough lefty too. 

45 minutes ago, TigerUppercut said:

I can tell you through people in the industry that arguably the biggest problem with Yelich is that he is absolutely not someone that works hard (or at all) both during the season or in the off-season.  Think Ben Sheets.  You'd literally need to walk him to the weight room for him to realize it exists.  That said, the contract he received was extended with MA and DS fully knowing that which is inexcusable, although the entire thing felt like MA's doing given the relationship with Yelich.  

If that's true, David Stearns is a complete idiot for extending him. I don't know if it's true so I will reserve judgment.

I do know this though--you cannot give a lazy player a huge/long contract and expect things to turn out well.

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Yes. The Dodgers make a ton of money with ~400M in TV money each year. The Yankees make a ton of money with at least that, AND a whole helluva lot more in tickets revenue.

I don't recall when it's been studied or reported that the Brewers are making a "ton" of money. 

 

 

This. They may be able to increase their payroll, but by the same token everyone else can too, and most to a greater extent. They'll always be chasing that carrot as long as the financial structure of the game stays as is.

7 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

 I understand you can't force a trade, but it sounds like there was little push for a bat because of prospect hoarding, IMO.

 

If you're talking one of the top 8-9 guys in the system for Drury, then I'm all-in on the hoarding philosophy (and I like Drury). A package involving guys in the teens or twenties, sure. Whether we explored that avenue no one knows, but I doubt that would've matched what they got from SD.

Peralta or Naquin I agree would've come cheaper but I don't think they checked the versatility box the Brewers seem to value. Just a guess, but I also think they would've preferred a RH bat.

3 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I feel there is still hope, even this year. It is ok to play him 7th in the order against a tough lefty too. 

I agree, there's plenty of hope. He's had stretches where he's been very effective, especially before the recent 7-8 day skid. But the effectiveness is pretty much limited to reaching base only. IMO you have to leave him in the leadoff spot, or else hit him 9th.

7 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

Again, I understand you can't force a trade, but it sounds like there was little push for a bat because of prospect hoarding, IMO.

 

John Heyman reported that the Brewers made a push for Bell (WAS had to include him to get the prospects they wanted from SD), and Joc Pederson (Giants decided not to sell), and inquired about Gallo and Drury.

For sure the knee injury at the end of 2019 into the disaster of what was 2020 hurt. In addition,  the league unjuiced the balls and had the cheating scandals Astros, Red Sox, and whatever the Yankees did that the league seemingly won't unseen evidence (unless they have and I missed it). I say that because the Cubs complained a bunch about our bullpen giving some kind of signals.

Put a bunch of that together with some natural regression and wa-la.

6 hours ago, TigerUppercut said:

I can tell you through people in the industry that arguably the biggest problem with Yelich is that he is absolutely not someone that works hard (or at all) both during the season or in the off-season.  Think Ben Sheets.  You'd literally need to walk him to the weight room for him to realize it exists.  That said, the contract he received was extended with MA and DS fully knowing that which is inexcusable, although the entire thing felt like MA's doing given the relationship with Yelich.  

This is a pretty major accusation.  Not saying an untrue one, I have no idea one way or another, but a small market extending a $215M franchise record extension to a player with a known poor work ethic would be egregiously negligent.

6 hours ago, TigerUppercut said:

I can tell you through people in the industry that arguably the biggest problem with Yelich is that he is absolutely not someone that works hard (or at all) both during the season or in the off-season.  Think Ben Sheets.  You'd literally need to walk him to the weight room for him to realize it exists.  That said, the contract he received was extended with MA and DS fully knowing that which is inexcusable, although the entire thing felt like MA's doing given the relationship with Yelich.  

This is a pretty major accusation.  Not saying an untrue one, I have no idea one way or another, but a small market extending a $215M franchise record extension to a player with a known poor work ethic would be egregiously negligent.

Pretty clear on the videos Yelich's swing speed is vastly faster than the Yelich of today.  That would tie in more to back issues disallowing him to swing as fast.  I've believed it was fear on hurting his knee with swinging timidly, but now it's clearly the back nearing 3years later.  If he were a golfer this is like a prime PGA player turned senior the next years. Bat speed must be multiple miles per hour slower. The hard exit velocity is just how well his swing plane and barrel of the ball is.

Pretty clear on the videos Yelich's swing speed is vastly faster than the Yelich of today.  That would tie in more to back issues disallowing him to swing as fast.  I've believed it was fear on hurting his knee with swinging timidly, but now it's clearly the back nearing 3years later.  If he were a golfer this is like a prime PGA player turned senior the next years. Bat speed must be multiple miles per hour slower. The hard exit velocity is just how well his swing plane and barrel of the ball is.

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

This is a pretty major accusation.  Not saying an untrue one, I have no idea one way or another, but a small market extending a $215M franchise record extension to a player with a known poor work ethic would be egregiously negligent.

I'm inherently skeptical of the un-named sources in the industry when it's a Jeff Passan...

That seems like too obvious of a thing to first start coming out 3 years after an injury that ended his second straight MVP season in a failed attempt to try and explain why he just feel off a cliff. I also have friends who work in or around the industry. One who works for Bally telling me Khris Middleton was coming back Gm 5 of the Celtics series, then telling me everyone on the team was questioning his toughness. I'm pretty sure that person just wasn't privy to that information at all because their job in no way is related to the health of the players. 

Now...that's not to say Tigeruppercut is wrong or that he doesn't know reputable people in the front offices of Major League Baseball(though it'd really have to be the Brewers or how would they know how hard he is or isn't working right now?)...I'll just say I take these types of insults with a grain of salt. You're really kinda insulting who he is as a man and as a person. So I need more than an anonymous person repeating what other anonymous people say before I'll put any credibility into that. 

With Sheets, we HEARD people questioning his lack of commitment to his conditioning. We saw a very different personality. I don't see that from Yelich. Again, doesn't mean it's not that...I just don't see it). 

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

This is a pretty major accusation.  Not saying an untrue one, I have no idea one way or another, but a small market extending a $215M franchise record extension to a player with a known poor work ethic would be egregiously negligent.

I'm inherently skeptical of the un-named sources in the industry when it's a Jeff Passan...

That seems like too obvious of a thing to first start coming out 3 years after an injury that ended his second straight MVP season in a failed attempt to try and explain why he just feel off a cliff. I also have friends who work in or around the industry. One who works for Bally telling me Khris Middleton was coming back Gm 5 of the Celtics series, then telling me everyone on the team was questioning his toughness. I'm pretty sure that person just wasn't privy to that information at all because their job in no way is related to the health of the players. 

Now...that's not to say Tigeruppercut is wrong or that he doesn't know reputable people in the front offices of Major League Baseball(though it'd really have to be the Brewers or how would they know how hard he is or isn't working right now?)...I'll just say I take these types of insults with a grain of salt. You're really kinda insulting who he is as a man and as a person. So I need more than an anonymous person repeating what other anonymous people say before I'll put any credibility into that. 

With Sheets, we HEARD people questioning his lack of commitment to his conditioning. We saw a very different personality. I don't see that from Yelich. Again, doesn't mean it's not that...I just don't see it). 

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Pretty clear on the videos Yelich's swing speed is vastly faster than the Yelich of today.  That would tie in more to back issues disallowing him to swing as fast.  I've believed it was fear on hurting his knee with swinging timidly, but now it's clearly the back nearing 3years later.  If he were a golfer this is like a prime PGA player turned senior the next years. Bat speed must be multiple miles per hour slower. The hard exit velocity is just how well his swing plane and barrel of the ball is.

I agree, I think it was the back.

After that shot to right though, I'm also hoping that back has some life left in it!

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Pretty clear on the videos Yelich's swing speed is vastly faster than the Yelich of today.  That would tie in more to back issues disallowing him to swing as fast.  I've believed it was fear on hurting his knee with swinging timidly, but now it's clearly the back nearing 3years later.  If he were a golfer this is like a prime PGA player turned senior the next years. Bat speed must be multiple miles per hour slower. The hard exit velocity is just how well his swing plane and barrel of the ball is.

I agree, I think it was the back.

After that shot to right though, I'm also hoping that back has some life left in it!

Yelich is no 2.6 WAR player in 2022 according to Baseball reference.

with a decent finish he could get to 3.