Yelich's Decline and the Brewers' Current Offense

I am curious why do people feel the need to defend Christian Yelich and David Stearns at all costs?  Why aren't people allowed to call out this dumpster fire.  In the end the Brewers will lose out on all of the quality pitching and improving young players.  Also why does every fan assume the Brewers have endless amounts of cash to withstand blunders like this and Lorenzo Cain.  These two alone are nearly 30% of the Brewers salaries.

1 hour ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I am curious why do people feel the need to defend Christian Yelich and David Stearns at all costs?  Why aren't people allowed to call out this dumpster fire.  In the end the Brewers will lose out on all of the quality pitching and improving young players.  Also why does every fan assume the Brewers have endless amounts of cash to withstand blunders like this and Lorenzo Cain.  These two alone are nearly 30% of the Brewers salaries.

Huh...I could have sworn I've seen people calling out David Stearns the last month on this site(at least it's felt like a month since the deadline). Yelich CERTAINLY gets called out.

Who exactly is not "allowing" you to do this?

They also paid Lo Cain 65M over 4 years and a week and got back 12 WAR. Not REALLY a "blunder," in my opinion. 

Edit-I'd also LOVE to go back to my much younger self, watching the Brewers trade away star player with seemingly no plan in place, losing 90-100 games a year...with a 20 year high being a 10 game winning streak that would come to an end vs the Reds that would bring the Brewers to the staggering heights of...58-75...I'd love to be able to tell him, "don't worry about it, in the future when the Brewers are slumping, they'll call 61-53 a "dumpster fire."
 

24 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

Lastly, yes, the Brewers are hurt by large contracts with little production - more so than many other teams. However, as has been studied and reported on many times, MLB teams typically make a ton of money every year.

Yes. The Dodgers make a ton of money with ~400M in TV money each year. The Yankees make a ton of money with at least that, AND a whole helluva lot more in tickets revenue.

I don't recall when it's been studied or reported that the Brewers are making a "ton" of money. 

Even still, that's not the reason they failed to get Drury, Bell...and I forget who the 3rd player they'd gone after but were unable to acquire at the deadline. Money wasn't the reason. It was almost certainly not wanting to give up the prospects that are the lifeblood of this team in order to get an impact player in return. 

Bell was part of the Soto deal, so as I said in another thread...I can't imagine the Nats holding a firm line there during negotiations and saying, 'well, if you don't want to include Bell, we can't do Hassell.' So that's just messy in trying to separate what it would have cost. 

Joey Gallo...who's been discussed here, cost the Dodgers a 50 FV type arm.

I wanted a bat badly as well. I also did NOT want to see them give up Turang, the 3 OFers who are in AAA, Chourio or one of our top 2 pitching prospects(which they ended up doing anyway, though they got another back). 

So I've gotta ask, what was the trade they should have made? You don't just force a trade just to make at trade, right? Last year, Escobar was available, the Brewers went out and got him. Who was that player this year?

Stearns' biggest mistake, IMO, is giving Yelich that contract extension before seeing exactly how he recovered from that knee injury when they still had him under his previous contract for up to 3 more seasons at very friendly prices for their payroll.  Conversely, this is probably the best move Yelich's agent made in their entire career.  By waiting would the Brewers have risked not being able to extend Yelich had he continued raking offensively?  Yes, but they also could have gotten 3 more years of his prime without burdening their payroll longterm - something a team with the payroll limitations the Brewers have must focus on instead of extending players well into their 30s so we can watch their inevitable decline.  The Brewers built their whole window around him being the 2018-2019 version of himself through the years when most of their young pitching core would reach free agency.  Not having that player in the middle of their lineup really hurts, especially now that they are paying him to be that type of hitter and instead they get a "serviceable" leadoff hitter who is a declining defender.

The trade for Yelich was highway robbery given the fact none of the prospects shipped to the Marlins have amounted to anything and the Brewers instantly got an MVP-caliber OF in his prime under an incredibly team-friendly contract.  The Brewers could have waited 1 or 2 seasons to see how Yelich's career arc trended after that knee injury before working out a mega contract extension, and if they did Stearns and company could have actually walked away from Yelich after 2021 without offering him an option year for this season.  In retrospect, Braun's extension looks incredibly team-friendly and a better use of limited  payroll than Yelich's, and we are barely into the teeth of this organizational albatross of a contract for a small market club.

Why shouldnt yelich be blamed?  He simply is late on every pitch and has hit nothing with authority to the pull side in years.  He has made zero adjustments-- looks exactly the same as he did in 2019.  this is exactly what I was told from a scout from the Giants-- who I sat next to at a recent game.  

Huira finally realized his leg kick and approach had to change.  Why does yelich get a pass?

Yelich should learn from Lyman Bostick and donate back the money he is stealing.

If you add his ISO to the tables, there clearly is a huge drop to the levels he was at when 21/22 and just starting in MLB. Exit Velocity is irrelevant if you are only converting that into hard hit singles. 

And, since he is just starting or goes into a slump whenever I comment that he hasn't been that bad, I am going to just stop defending him.  He's a 10 ton anchor on a dingy.

There is a line between defending Yelich and recognizing that blame in certain areas is incorrect. Is he living up to the contract? No, of course not. However, he shouldn't be to blame for signing it (the Brewers offered), and his decline does not appear to be because of anything he has done negatively (lack of effort, prior PED use, etc.).

As for Stearns, he has earned some benefit of the doubt; however, myself and many others have been ALL OVER him for this year's deadline. Not necessarily the Hader move on its own, but the way weaknesses weren't addressed and how it seemed like selling while they were in first place. And as I say in this article, he didn't adjust to Yelich's slide enough - if at all - to improve the offense.

Lastly, yes, the Brewers are hurt by large contracts with little production - more so than many other teams. However, as has been studied and reported on many times, MLB teams typically make a ton of money every year. There is always room for more expenditures on payroll, and especially when you might be looking at a 2 or 3-year window with talent to get you a Championship.  Plenty of "blame" to go around if they can't take advantage of the pitching they have had during this run and get to a World Series.

Thanks for the answer Tim, I guess my questions are part of a larger problem of how frustrating it is to follow a small market team while watching the front office stop going for it all in the name of remaining competitive.  It is a good way to make the playoffs but never really win anything.  I don't know what to think about this idea.

55 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Lorenzo Cain was far from a blunder. He was outstanding in 2018 and just fine in 2019 and 2021. It was only this year, the last of a long-term deal, where the wheels came off. And that's usually the case in any contract more than three years long, particularly to a guy in his 30s when the contract began.

From a Cumulative WAR point of view, he was worth the contract (8.4 WAR/$80M = $9.5M per WAR).  Unfortunately it wasn't nearly as spread out as the Brewers may have liked since 73% came in one season (2018).  On the other hand, we don't get to the 7th game of the NLCS in 2018 without that contribution.

I think I'm not going out on a limb and say that when the Yelich contract is done we will look back at the Cain deal and think what a great contract.

Any deal to move Hader should have included Yelich, the Dodgers, Yankee's etc could afford to make that deal.  That would have set the team up financially to load and go.

2 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

But Yelich HAS been making adjustments and he has been somewhat productive most of this season...just obviously not to the level that his contract would indicate. I had an article earlier this year for those who begrudge him for having that contract or that he should "give money back."  What about the insane value he provided when he was far underpaid. If you lookup that article, you'll find it's close to even at this point in terms of value. However, without major improvements, he will ultimately underperform what he's been paid in Milwaukee by the end - no doubt.

In the end, I see a slow bat on many nights and no one knows for sure why...but it is probably a combination of factors. Again, you can blame him if you'd like. It stinks. My point is simply that 1) He has been trying to live up to the deal (adjustments, extra work, accountability, etc.) as noted in this piece. It's not like he is being lazy or a bad teammate or something; 2) It's not his fault the Brewers offered him the contract. If they offered it to me, I would take it right now knowing full well I wouldn't live up to 1% of it.

The quote from the Giants scout was he has done zero adjustments.  Moving from to a toe tap and then no toe tap are not adjustments-- his set up and swing path are exactly the same as before.  He is late to the ball on virtually every pitch.  He is a $20 million a year slap hitter who is terrible defensively.  Could live with the defense if he had any production at the plate.

22 minutes ago, Lou Buell said:

Any deal to move Hader should have included Yelich, the Dodgers, Yankee's etc could afford to make that deal.  That would have set the team up financially to load and go.

Yes the Yankees and Dodgers could afford the Yelich contract but all you are getting back for Hader and Yelich is a signed baseball by a homeless guy in New York or Los Angeles.  Also the Dodgers and Yankees would want the Brewers to pay for some of Yelich's contract in that trade so you are now paying Yelich to play for the Dodgers or Yankees.  

It would have been an absolutely horrible idea to include Yelich in a Hader trade.  

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Stearns' biggest mistake, IMO, is giving Yelich that contract extension before seeing exactly how he recovered from that knee injury when they still had him under his previous contract for up to 3 more seasons at very friendly prices for their payroll.  Conversely, this is probably the best move Yelich's agent made in their entire career.  By waiting would the Brewers have risked not being able to extend Yelich had he continued raking offensively?  Yes, but they also could have gotten 3 more years of his prime without burdening their payroll longterm - something a team with the payroll limitations the Brewers have must focus on instead of extending players well into their 30s so we can watch their inevitable decline.  The Brewers built their whole window around him being the 2018-2019 version of himself through the years when most of their young pitching core would reach free agency.  Not having that player in the middle of their lineup really hurts, especially now that they are paying him to be that type of hitter and instead they get a "serviceable" leadoff hitter who is a declining defender.

 

35 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

Questioning the timing of the contract extension and not knowing how he would bounce back after the knee injury (assuming that what started the decline or is a contributing factor)....that is a great point in terms of biggest criticism of Stearns when it comes to Yelich.

First of all, the Brewers have access to the doctors treating Yelich and his medical records,  fans don't. Second, the Brewers have access to Yelich in the off-season and could observe how he looks in whatever rehabilitation he had to do, running, hitting, etc., fans don't.  Third, the Brewers coaching staff, doctors, and front office personnel saw him in spring training before he signed the extension, I think its logical to believe they were confident in Yelich's long-term health when he signed his extension and with nearly two hundred million dollars of the owner's money at stake,  were simply not taking a guess that he'd be fully recovered from a knee cap fracture. 

As to any complaints about the timing of the extension given Yelich had years remaining on his contract when the extension was signed, keep in mind it takes two to tango. For all we know as fans, Yelich told the Brewers "it's now or never" on a contract extension. Who knows? I can tell you if Yelich had continued to crush as a Brewer and walked as a free agent, there would be a percentage of fans calling the GM an idiot for letting him walk that is equal to the percentage that are critical of the extension. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 

39 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

David Peralta and Tyler Naquin would have been strong deals to make as platoon options for McCutchen against RH & spell Renfore/Yelich depending on matchup.

I really wonder what the Brewers think in terms of some of these players.  McCutcheon is almost out there every day no matter what the stats say about his ability to hit RH pitching.  He's even in the field where he and Yelich make butchering seem like an art form.  Hiura sits and sits (oh no he strikes out too much in a lineup we created of all or nothing hitters - can't have that) and yet he produces more than the crappy vets they put out there day after day.  We keep wondering why they didn't add a hitter at the deadline?  Maybe they have no problem with the way the offense has been assembled. I really am beginning to think that they just have an inflated view of the quality of the players they have acquired and trot out day after day.  Maybe the best thing for this team is to fall apart over the next 7 weeks so a few in the front office will maybe consider that their decisions aren't working.

1 hour ago, Lou Buell said:

Any deal to move Hader should have included Yelich, the Dodgers, Yankee's etc could afford to make that deal.  That would have set the team up financially to load and go.

Yelich's contract is probably 100 million or more of negative underwater value. 

I know the big market clubs have a lot of money, but that doesn't mean they're going to just eat our bad investment just for Josh Hader.

42 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

David Peralta and Tyler Naquin would have been strong deals to make as platoon options for McCutchen against RH & spell Renfore/Yelich depending on matchup. Plus quality LH options late in games. Peralta was had for the Rays' #19 prospect, so Milwaukee certainly could have made a play for a "cheap" cost there. Naquin was dealt with another player for 2 low level minor leaguers. Not sure on their rankings...but again, couldn't have cost much for Naquin himself. Yes, it takes two to tango, but we will never know.

Brandon Drury was still the best fit at, I think, would have been an affordable prospect cost. I agree you weren't dealing any of your top 5 guys, but could there have been a fit for a 6-10 player that the Brewers have depth for already? Offer a pair of Top 30 guys that entice Cincy? Sounds like Stearns likely didn't even engage much for him. Again, I understand you can't force a trade, but it sounds like there was little push for a bat because of prospect hoarding, IMO.

 

It sounds like he did try to acquire a few bats. Drury, Joc Peterson, Josh Bell and...even Joey Gallo(who I was not a particular fan of, but nonetheless).

I wonder if the Reds weren't trying to tax the Brewers a bit to acquire a bat that fit so well as Drury did. It's hard to really form an opinion without knowing exactly what they wanted...but I will say I'm not a fan of trading away LA Bonus Babies before you really get a feel for what they can do. The chances you trade away a Tatis Jr(an example that's suddenly been made to look much worse, but I think the point remains) is very low, but...they still got a pretty highly regarded SS/2B who was in his first year of full season ball. Do you risk giving up a guy like Hedbert Perez with his upside? Even with the very long odds that he ever becomes a productive player? Would that even have been enough? I don't know. Stears seems more comfortable trading away players with higher floors and lower ceilings(Alex Binelas types for example). 

https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-the-2-former-all-star-hitters-that-the-brewers-looked-to-acquire-at-mlb-trade-deadline-revealed/

As for David Peralta and Tyler Naquin, sure. They could have provided...something. Both are really bad vs lefties, but have been able to hit righties a little. Pretty similar to Keston Hiura but lower strikeout rates. 

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

From a Cumulative WAR point of view, he was worth the contract (8.4 WAR/$80M = $9.5M per WAR).  Unfortunately it wasn't nearly as spread out as the Brewers may have liked since 73% came in one season (2018).  On the other hand, we don't get to the 7th game of the NLCS in 2018 without that contribution.

I think I'm not going out on a limb and say that when the Yelich contract is done we will look back at the Cain deal and think what a great contract.

But he didn't get paid 80M. He got paid ~65M. 

And it's 11.6 WAR per Bref

8.4 per Fangraphs
We got pretty lucky he opted in before opting out in 2020 or we'd be on the hook for another year(likely why the Brewers were willing to wait to DFA him).

11 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

 

Yelich's contract is probably 100 million or more of negative underwater value. 

I know the big market clubs have a lot of money, but that doesn't mean they're going to just eat our bad investment just for Josh Hader.

Imagine THIS Christian Yelich is a FA. What's he going to get?

MAYBE 2/20 with a 3rd year option. So 25M guaranteed.

There's no WAY a team is taking back ~180M in contract obligations for a year and a half of Hader...who himself will cost ~17M next year.

I really don't even want to think about what it'd cost to unload Yelich contract at this point. I'm pretty sure it'd be part of a Burnes/Woodruff trade and you'd still have to eat a pretty significant chunk and take a whole lot less back in terms of prospects. 

I think the best way to proceed is just...hope Yelich can figure something out. Maybe try something different with his back and then hope he can get going again in some way or just be happy with what you've got. The horse is out of the barn. Unless he suddenly figures it out, it's a sunken cost we've just got to deal with. It sucks, but the only way forward is to try and keep churning out young, talented, valuable controllable players. We can compete while paying Yelich 26M a year(22 and then deferred money)...it's just gonna be difficult. 

37 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

Zero adjustments from what point? I think that scout was either exaggerating or talking about major adjustments. He has had changes over the last 2 seasons to his hand location, front foot location (during stance and when landing), leg kick, etc. If that were true that he NOR the Brewers worked on ZERO adjustments, then that is damning of both. As for the slap hitter comment...I guess you have to decide on what you want. I think right now, he helps the team best by drawing walks and making contact with an emphasis on getting on base (not power). That is what is somewhat working. It would seem the last couple of seasons that trying to be the same hitter as 18-19 wasn't working, so why keep down that path?

The defense...there is nothing to say. He is worse all around, but players don't get big deals because of their defense. So to your point, if he were hitting anywhere near like he did before, it would not matter at all. Last night's throw to home...it looked like it hurt to make a long throw. Sad, really.

This is why I'm pretty confident that his injury has just been his back injury getting progressively worse. 

It was an issue when he was 25 years old. In 2020, it appeared he was still mostly the same player, just hitting into incredibly poor luck in a small sample size, but still hitting for power. 

2021, more back issues, missing time. The power is gone and now....we are where we are.