What the Brewers' Offense Most Needs to Change in 2023

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Something to keep in mind about batting average is that AmFam is one of the hardest stadiums to hit singles in, last playing above average for singles in 2014.

Here are AmFam’s individual season StatCast Park Factors for singles…

2022: 87 (30th)
2021: 97 (20th)
2019: 91 (29th)
2018: 95 (23rd)
2017: 98 (18th)
2016: 91 (28th)
2015: 94 (23rd)
2014: 102 (8th)

Meanwhile, here are individual season HR ratings at AmFam over that same time frame…

2022: 117 (9th)
2021: 103 (12th)
2019: 105 (11th)
2018: 108 (11th)
2017: 109 (11th)
2016: 113 (10th)
2015: 134 (2nd)
2014: 119 (6th)

I like that the FO has appeared to trend increasingly towards more contact oriented hitters recently, but it might end up being a suboptimal strategy at AmFam.

This is a weird stat without changing the field dimensions or other teams changing field dimension or new ball parks.  We have the dome ability to block bad weather. So if not the addition of the 3 factors I mentioned above, how do you adjust singles ball park factors over the years? Does this number come as a reflection to the Pitching on the mound for both teams? The hitters and the combined k rate?  

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

The numbers jump around considerably year to year because every season sees a different array of players with a different array of results. The ball changing year to year (and even within any given year) plays a large roll too.

League average OPS has jumped around pretty considerably over the same time frame from 711 (in 2014) to 733 to 750 to 762 to 740 to 769 to 739 to 706 (in 2022), so components thereof doing the same, especially when isolated to a tiny sample of only 81 games at one stadium isn't really that out of the ordinary.

This is the methodology quoted on the StatCast page...

"Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks."

Here is the full array of single season data for AmFam going back to 2002. If you click over to "Three Year Rolling: Yes" it smooths out the results considerably as they encompass more data.

 

You can't sell me on this one.  This doesn't sound like Park Factors at all.  Determined by looking at each pitcher and batter, controlled by handedness and comparing the frequency of that metric in a selected park to the performance of the players in those other parks.  So it's a guess.  An assumption.  I mean the sample size to create such a number and then implement players in a different ballpark and guess the results at that ball park.  You would be putting pitchers and players in ballparks where they didn't even play in, in to that equation.  Brewer hitters strike out a ton as do opposing hitters vs Brewer Batters.  So either that is a huge factor in this ranking, or the sample size they are taking from Miller Park numbers is smaller than typical ballparks. 

2014: Brewer pitchers at home  21.713 k pct  Batters at home  18.574 k pct

2022:Brewer pitchers at home 26.937 k pct  Batters at home 24.538 k pct. 

So if striking out goes in to this park factor well that's quite the change right there between 2014 and 2022.  Or like I said reduces the amount balls put in play making a smaller sample determining this park factor on singles.

Brewer bats overall hit .235 at home in 22  .258 at home in 2014

Pitchers against  .218 at home in 22   against .242 at home in 2014.  

You can see how projections works with K pct affecting Batting averages. 

They need to better with RISP 

47 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

They need to better with RISP 

The Brewers literally had the 2nd highest OPS with RISP last year

16 hours ago, sveumrules said:

It’s not a guess. It’s based on every player’s (both Brewers and opponents)  collective performance in AmFam for that season versus those same players’ collective performance in all other parks for that same season.

There are also columns for K/BB because different stadiums have exerted observed effects in those areas over numerous seasons of results with changing player pools. The most extreme example being Coors which is bright red across the board on Three Year Rolling except for the solid blue line for K and lighter blue line for BB.

Yes, as singles become less common the sample size influencing that specific park factor will necessarily be smaller and subject to greater year over year variation as visible in the OP. That’s why (similar to defensive metrics or reliever stats or platoon splits or even just player performance in general) it’s best to look at multiple seasons to get a more reliable idea of what is going on.

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

38 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

It'll be interesting to see where the Brewers rank over the next 3 years when Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio, and Wiemer take on full time rolls. Contreras and Turang as well. The k pct should lower, BA higher so do we go back above 15th or stay lower 6.

There is a lot of wish casting on this forum of the Brewers getting in high contact, high average, and low K players.  This is not a new thing (Luis Urias was going to be  new model of Brewer player who hits .300 and doesn't strike out!). But that isn't what is happening.  Frelick is that, but those others are not. 

Mitchell and Wiemer are high K players likely with K rates near 30% or even higher. Wiemer may bring his down to mid 20s. Contreas is a pretty high K player as well, with a K rate above 25%. Turang is a low average moderate K player though his K rate of near 20% in AAA main mean a higher rate in MLB.

18 minutes ago, endaround said:

There is a lot of wish casting on this forum of the Brewers getting in high contact, high average, and low K players.  This is not a new thing (Luis Urias was going to be  new model of Brewer player who hits .300 and doesn't strike out!). But that isn't what is happening.  Frelick is that, but those others are not. 

Mitchell and Wiemer are high K players likely with K rates near 30% or even higher. Wiemer may bring his down to mid 20s. Contreas is a pretty high K player as well, with a K rate above 25%. Turang is a low average moderate K player though his K rate of near 20% in AAA main mean a higher rate in MLB.

Looks like for Urias he changed his approach to hit more HRs which got him his debut. With the shift ban, the launch angle craze may dwindle a little not focusing on hitting it over well placed fielders to even over the wall and being able to send solid contact through the holes that wasn't there the previous seasons.  All the guys I listed except Frelick are 23-26 k pct.  I'll wait til they are through their age 27 season before believing they can't improve their contact skills.