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Plainly, that's a question every fan has to answer for themselves. That doesn't mean there aren't some wrong answers, but there's a long list of right ones. This is a franchise still in search of its first World Series title, and just its second pennant. This year marks a quarter-century of play in the National League, and no National League pennant has yet belonged to the Brewers. The Bucks have won their championship. The Packers are a source of frequent frustration, but also perennial competitiveness, and they've won two titles in the lifetime of the average Brewers fan. It's fair to argue that this team, with three stars nearing free agency and one erstwhile superstar locked in for the long haul, needs to put an end to one of those droughts in order to be called a success.
It's no less valid, though, to counter that the model of sustainable competition put in place by David Stearns and carried forward, now, by Matt Arnold depends on defining success more broadly than that. For that matter, Mark Attanasio thinks along the same lines.
"I hope to never go through a rebuild here," he said last Opening Day. "At the trade deadline, we'll be looking carefully. We definitely have some flexibility this year." He said all that in the context of trying to get the team over the hump and deeper into October, but come July, they used that flexibility in a different way.
While Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, and Brandon Woodruff catch all the headlines, Eric Lauer is also only two years from free agency. Devin Williams is just three years away. This team has to at least contend this season, but given the way the front office and the owner each think about the challenge of winning consistently in a small market, we have to think through what shape success could take even if one of those players is traded before August begins.
Certainly, a resurgent power season from Christian Yelich would shift the narrative on his contract in a welcome way. That narrative has already outstripped any real damage the team is suffering from having signed Yelich, though. His demise is much-exaggerated, especially in light of new defensive metrics from Baseball Prospectus that show him to have been almost perfectly average over the last three years. (The previous state of the art in defensive evaluation marked him almost 10 runs worse.)
Most important, though, especially because of the way this team prefers to operate, is what we see from young players. If Jackson Chourio's development continues at anywhere near the pace and the level that it sustained last year, he'll arrive in the majors during the second half and make an immediate impact. Even failing that perfect an outcome, they should have the playing time and the normal evaluative conditions to get a firmer handle on which of Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer can be long-term regulars in the outfield. The same goes for Luis Urías and Brice Turang on the infield. Walker McKinven will try to prove, once again, the team's prowess at developing catcher defense, which could render William Contreras a superstar if it works yet again.
I'm willing to give a list of boxes that need to be checked for this year to be a success, even if the championship eludes the club again.
- The team should resolve the uncertainty around at least two of Woodruff, Adames, and Burnes. Extensions are ideal, of course, and I'd certainly hope for at least one of those, but failing that, they should exploit the trade market and get back more controllable talent, staying competitive while sowing more of the seeds of long-term contention. Their organizational paradigm won't do well with the challenges that come if two of these guys are just a year from free agency come the fall.
- The outfield of the medium-term future needs to be clear. If Tyrone Taylor has his hoped-for breakout, terrific, but it seems more likely that they'll need to see at least two of Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, and Chourio have good years in order to feel the kind of confidence I'm talking about. That's a reasonable hope, given the caliber of those young players, but it's far from guaranteed.
- Another pitcher emerges. With Aaron Ashby starting spring training behind schedule, and with the myriad questions that encircle the top four starters on staff, the team needs to enjoy another breakout performance, like the ones they've gotten from Woodruff, Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Lauer in succession over the last four years. Chris Hook has more than adequately replaced Derek Johnson, which seemed so improbable upon his departure, but now he faces another tough test. Given what Hook does well, I would sooner bet on Robert Gasser or Jansen Junk than Ethan Small to make the leap required, but all three are candidates. So, for that matter, is Bryse Wilson, although his opportunities to prove himself as a starter for 2023 will be much more limited. The same goes for Gus Varland.
- The team has to make the playoffs. This is a "last but not least" situation, if ever there was one. All four of these criteria are, to me, necessary, but none of them are sufficient without the rest.
The infallibility of some of the larger-market NL Wild Card contenders has been oversold. The Cardinals are hardly an unbeatable division favorite. The Brewers have to play some home games at Miller Park in the playoffs in order to call their season a success. That said, there are good cases to be made that they can be successful without winning the pennant, or even winning the division. Again, though, this is deeply subjective, and I welcome your thoughts and your lists of criteria for a satisfying Brewers year.
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