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In the context of a $12-billion industry, the Brewers aren’t a very wealthy team. With an estimated 2023 payroll of $120 million, they need to be precise in whom they trade for and whom they sign. The two most notable trades of the offseason were those for Jesse Winker and William Contreras. Winker had a rough year in Seattle, but based on his history batting against the Brewers at American Family Field, there is a high probability that he could make a comeback to the player he was in 2021. Contreras is a young catcher from Atlanta who has a very good slugging percentage and a lot of potential for growth. The best part of this deal is that the Brewers acquired him by trading Esteury Ruiz, whom they acquired in the Josh Hader trade. In the Winker trade, the team also landed infielder Abraham Toro. The Ruiz-Contreras deal, part of a larger three-team transaction, netted them not only Contreras, but right-handed reliever Joel Payamps and a minor-league arm.
Beyond those two deals, the Brewers have signed third baseman Brian Anderson and left-handed pitcher Wade Miley as free agents; traded for first baseman Owen Miller; and purchased the rights to right-handed hurler Bryse Wilson, along with signing a few minor-league contracts. Each of these players still has the potential to grow, with the oldest players being Anderson (turning 30 this year) and Payamps (turning 29). While some players, like Toro, show signs of progress in OPS, there isn’t anything spectacular about their statistics.
There are those on social media who think that the Brewers haven’t made enough big trades, and should invest in more elite players in order to contend for a playoff spot this year. As the Brewers’ top three All-Stars (Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff) draw closer to free agency with no long-term contracts made, this patient approach seems risky.
It’s actually the opposite. It appears the Brewers are spreading out their player investments, rather than focusing on a few star players. The second long-term deal the team signed with Ryan Braun, agreed to in 2011 but extending his deal from 2016-20, failed to deliver excess value. Their nine-year commitment to Christian Yelich, on the heels of his huge breakout years, looks likely to have a similarly uninspiring return on investment.
As with stocks, acquiring great ballplayers is as much about timing as about pure talent identification. The Brewers, being a small-market team, don’t have the money to be wasteful or to miss on big financial bets. By signing a bunch of young players and good prospects for cheap, they don’t have to bank on the performance of a single player and can increase their likelihood of developing a future All-Star at a more affordable price.
In summary, the Brewers didn’t lose many of their key players, and still acquired two notable new ones. While it’s disappointing that the Brewers aren’t as loud this offseason as other teams, sometimes we forget that it’s not just about who the Brewers sign, but also who they don’t sign.
My final thought hearkens to the movie, Miracle. During a meeting to make out the roster for Team USA, assistant coach Craig Patrick (played by Noah Emmerich) says to coach Herb Brooks (Kurt Russell), “You’re missing some of the best players.” Brooks replies, “I’m not looking for the best players, Craig. I’m looking for the right ones.” Have the Brewers found the right players? We’ll find out, starting on March 30.
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