Three Pitchers' Major Impact During Brewers' Skid

You can be mad at the offense for a lack of runs. You can want someone to hold the manager accountable. You can even curse David Stearns for not bringing in different players. The reality is, if you're going to place blame on a few people, it comes down to three starters: Corbin Burnes, Eric Lauer, and Adrian Houser. They were critical to the Brewers' fantastic start to the season but have recently dipped together. 

Houser was steady at the back of the rotation (2.98 ERA), while Burnes (2.18 ERA) and Lauer (2.16 ERA) were completely lights out on the mound - one more surprising than the other. As much as the trio's production carried Milwaukee to a franchise-best start, their consistent quality spared the bullpen from overuse. That is an especially valuable perk of excellent starting pitching early in the year. The way these three arms set the tone into the last week of May gave fans the belief the club was unstoppable.

Unfortunately, the last three times through the rotation have not been so kind. It was an even bigger blow with Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta out of commission. In fact, Burnes, Lauer, and Houser's issues have not only shown up in the stats but in the inability to go deep in games as they had before. They have had a profound, long-lasting impact on the Brewers. The comparison of the two periods is stark:

Lauer and Houser crashed hard with 6.60 ERAs in their last three starts, and that is stunning. Lauer's strikeout percentage (K%) getting cut in half is an enormous reason. Couple that with nearly three times the percentage of walks, and it's significant trouble. Houser's ERA problem goes deeper into how batters have done with balls in play.

Burnes' 3.60 ERA in his last three starts is respectable and shows he is human, but he has also been hurt by the increase in walks. Each pitcher has one thing in common: their innings per game average dropping to five. That compounded the Brewers' problem through this rough stretch. Falling behind early and exiting before the sixth is a recipe for disaster with a banged-up roster.

In these cases, Craig Counsell then goes to the "B" and "C" bullpen arms, who often would fail to hold the opposition down. Even if the offense puts up a fight, arms get burned, and a weary relief corps goes from tired to exhausted. The cycle continues and creates a vortex of daily defeats with a dash of hopelessness until the starters return to form.

Rotation stability has been a staple for the Brewers the past few seasons. As the uncertainty of the starters increased, particularly with the three we're focused on, it lessens the control of the game Counsell often enjoys. Can this trio turn things around starting Tuesday? Let's examine what has been happening.

O-Contact% is the percentage of times contact is made on pitches outside the strike zone. Z-Contact% is for pitches within the zone. Swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) is swings and misses divided by total pitches thrown. All of these stats, essentially, are about hitters' contact and pitchers "missing bats." As you can see, it's gone the wrong way in most cases.

Burnes' Z-Contact% is steady, but hitters are making 13% more contact on pitches out of the zone and whiffing three percent less often overall. Lauer's numbers across the board have blown up. In his last three starts, he has seen a 14% and 12% increase in contact, respectively, and seven percent fewer swinging strikes.

Meanwhile, Houser remained roughly the same, except for about a five percent jump in the zone. The most stunning outcome is the 116-point jump in opponent batting average from .217 to .323. The most significant culprits for Houser have been fewer groundballs (his bread and butter) and more hard-hit balls. Harder struck balls lead to more hits, while more flies lead to homers.

First eight starts:

• 48.4% ground balls
• 31% hard-hit
• One home run allowed

Last three starts:

• 42.6% ground balls
• 37% hard-hit
• Five home runs allowed

With this sudden change in fortune for Burnes, Lauer, and Houser, it is fair to wonder if something else is going on. Why are hitters chasing fewer bad pitches and making more contact when they swing? Their lack of whiffs is contributing to the added walks. Early in the season, hitters would go after a pitch off the plate; now that they take that ball, the pitch count and free passes rise.

Have teams figured something out with how these hurlers work? Is there a predictable pattern in their pitch selection that scouting has uncovered? Some might even suggest tipping pitches; however, that would seem unlikely with three different hurlers. It could also have something to do with Omar Narvaez's absence and something he brings to the table by recognizing necessary adjustments. Or, it's simply a bad stretch of small-sample outings with bad, coincidental timing.

Whatever the reasoning, the Brewers need a correction in a hurry. Struggling starters' impact is felt more on this club than any other. Should even two of Burnes, Lauer, and Houser return to their first six-week performances, it will positively spread throughout the team. Relievers won't be needed before the seventh inning, allowing more rest for guys and the best bullpen arms to pitch more often - and with the lead. The offense then, hopefully, can relax and find a groove. Going to the plate with pressure to score every inning is the opposite of ideal. Hitting, and not hitting, are contagious.

With the losing streak snapped and a challenging foe in the next series, it's up to the veteran starters to step up their games and lead the way back to consistent victories.