Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run

1)Regression from hitters       Narvaez, Taylor, Cain, even Rowdy and Adames hit like 40 points lower than last year.

2)Starting pitching injuries          Not only did this hurt the starting rotation but then it hurts the bullpen as the pen is needing to pitch more innings from shorter starts.

3)Pig-headed front office/manager towards the offense    I am going to lump not trading for a bat at the deadline and refusing to alter the lineup together. One quality middle of the order bat probably would have been enough to get the playoffs and I hated that Adames and Rowdy hit 2/3 most of the year despite low average and obp. numbers. Counsil should have road a more hot hand approach with the top/middle of the order while try to find a consistent 2/3/4/5 bat(s).

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19 hours ago, yourout said:

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level).  I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general).  So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs.  The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline.  There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

19 hours ago, yourout said:

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

So one way I wanted to address whether our perception that the Brewers were bad at turning runners into runs was to look at LOB numbers in relation to OBP (If you get on at a high level you would also LOB at a higher level).  I "lost" the excel file so I can't post a graph or the numbers, but the Brewers were above the trendline for OBP vs LOB (MLB in general).  So the Brewers LOB number was lower than you would expect given their OBP. So our perception is just that a perception and didn't match the reality that the Brewers were slightly better than expected (based on OBP) of converting runners into runs.  The one outlier I noticed at the high end of LOB was the Padres as they left many more men on base than their OBP indicated which kinda makes sense that they were desperate to upgrade their offense at the trade deadline.  There were other outliers I just don't recall them. From what I recall the Brewers were about the same location WRT the trendline as the Dodgers (Higher OBP, Higher LOB) and pretty close to the Cubs.

15 hours ago, UpandIn said:

The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the  ball in place with less than 2 outs. 

Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right?

That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well?

The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply?

I said "over the last 20-50 years." It's been a process. 

I give up. It's an element of your religion, and it's wrong for me to question it.

15 hours ago, UpandIn said:

The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the  ball in place with less than 2 outs. 

Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right?

That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well?

The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply?

I said "over the last 20-50 years." It's been a process. 

I give up. It's an element of your religion, and it's wrong for me to question it.

11 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Can't say exactly when it was made, but the train probably started to leave the station in the '70s when free agency became a bigger thing. $$$$$$$$.

MLB K rate has jumped from 8% in just the past 8 years, but I think you nailed it. I don't think anyone decided it was "smarter" to not play situational baseball. In fact...again, Kolten Wong talked about how he liked the "freedom" he had in Milwaukee that he DIDN'T have in St Louis. How he was expected to shorten up with 2 strikes in STL.

Feels like these are kinda the reasons people are excited about Frelick in particular, but also Mitchell, Black, Ruiz. 

Because we've had SUCH a stagnant offense. One that goes station to station. That DOESN'T mean that was our only problem this year or the main problem this year...but it was a problem that all came to a head when we couldn't get a runner in from 2nd in a must win elimination game in back to back extra innings. 

11 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Can't say exactly when it was made, but the train probably started to leave the station in the '70s when free agency became a bigger thing. $$$$$$$$.

MLB K rate has jumped from 8% in just the past 8 years, but I think you nailed it. I don't think anyone decided it was "smarter" to not play situational baseball. In fact...again, Kolten Wong talked about how he liked the "freedom" he had in Milwaukee that he DIDN'T have in St Louis. How he was expected to shorten up with 2 strikes in STL.

Feels like these are kinda the reasons people are excited about Frelick in particular, but also Mitchell, Black, Ruiz. 

Because we've had SUCH a stagnant offense. One that goes station to station. That DOESN'T mean that was our only problem this year or the main problem this year...but it was a problem that all came to a head when we couldn't get a runner in from 2nd in a must win elimination game in back to back extra innings. 

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I said "over the last 20-50 years." It's been a process. 

I give up. It's an element of your religion, and it's wrong for me to question it.

 

They progressively started to get smart...didn't tell the best players until they retired and then their intellect peaked 20 years ago?

But sure, it's...an "element of my religion." My religion is apparently observing area's the Brewers had issues with that...we're not supposed to talk about? 

That tracks!

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I said "over the last 20-50 years." It's been a process. 

I give up. It's an element of your religion, and it's wrong for me to question it.

 

They progressively started to get smart...didn't tell the best players until they retired and then their intellect peaked 20 years ago?

But sure, it's...an "element of my religion." My religion is apparently observing area's the Brewers had issues with that...we're not supposed to talk about? 

That tracks!