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Sometimes sound judgments are made, but things don't work out. It happens on a small scale game during games (such as when to bring in a certain reliever) and on a larger scale with personnel decisions. Other times, people make foolish choices. It appears both types consistently burned the 2022 Brewers throughout the season.
Regardless, MLB is a results-oriented business, so no moral victories exist. Three of the calls and outcomes that didn't go the Brewers' way had the greatest impact on a disappointing season that ended short of the playoffs.
ANDREW MCCUTCHEN FREE AGENT SIGNING
It has often been said that a one-year contract carries no risk. That isn't entirely true, especially when a team like the Brewers apparently have a limited budget. Signing Andrew McCutchen to a one-year, $8.5 million didn't break the bank, but it did burn Milwaukee.
As the one major free agent move, the Brewers made, relying on a 35-year-old to repeat his 2021 performance was fool's gold. Therein laid the risk, counting on an aging veteran with no complementary move to cover a potential slide - which is what happened. McCutchen murdered lefties in 2021, then fell flat on his face against southpaws with the Brewers.
You can see why David Stearns was intrigued, but it turned out to be a harmful move. It's almost hard to believe how far McCutchen's numbers dipped against left-handers. Was it bad luck? Was it predictable that Cutch wouldn't come close to matching his huge season versus lefties at age 35? Perhaps the problem was manager Craig Counsell using McCutchen too often against righties. While McCutchen's numbers improved slightly versus righties, Counsell gave him 35 more plate appearances (and counting) this year after two sub-.700 OPS in the past couple of years. That may have worn him down unnecessarily and hurt his performance against lefties.
Technically, the Brewers' offense was statistically better this season, but they were frustratingly inconsistent and benefited from a DH in 2022. With McCutchen in the DH role for more than 60% of his plate appearances, he wasn't close to good enough. Maybe it was telling no other MLB clubs went after him - at least at that price. Perhaps if the Brewers paid McCutchen only $5 million, they would have had some leftover funds for another player to impact the team positively.
PLANNING TO RELY ON ETHAN SMALL
Now the 12th-rated prospect in Milwaukee's system, the Brewers thought Small was ready to contribute to the big league club in 2022. Counsell expressed in Spring Training that the 25-year-old hurler earned time with the Brewers.
Craig Counsell this morning, ahead of Small's start against the Dodgers: "Ethan Small is going to make starts for us this year. The way he's going right now, he's gonna make starts for us. You still have to earn yourself into that conversation. And he has done that."
— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) March 18, 2022
Small made exactly two starts with Milwaukee: 6.1 IP, five earned runs (7.11 ERA), seven strikeouts, eight walks, and a 2.526 WHIP. In a season that saw 18 fewer starts from Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Adrian Houser due to injuries, Milwaukee needed another quality arm to step up. Small was supposed to be that guy.
One problem was that Stearns and company didn't plan a fail-safe. In past seasons, they signed guys like Brett Anderson, who could at least offer a reliable amount of average outings to keep the team in games. Instead, unknown Jason Alexander took the hill for 11 starts. He owned a 4.82 ERA in those starts but had a fair amount of blowup games that not only put the Brewers behind but caused them to burn through bullpen arms.
It was a double whammy. On the one hand, the Brewers misevaluated Small, whose lack of command grew worse in 2022 (5.1 walks per nine innings). On the other hand, Milwaukee had no other young pitchers or veteran hurlers ready to take the ball when injuries predictably struck. That significantly impacted Milwaukee's decline in run prevention and the tax on the bullpen that imploded in the second half.
TRADE DEADLINE DEALS AND NO DEALS
I'm not here to blame all things on the trading of Josh Hader. It certainly took an emotional and mental toll on the club for a while after the move, but it was not the only problem with the Brewers' trade deadline. Milwaukee also struggled before August 2, but they had won six of eight games leading up to the trade to hold a three-game lead in the NL Central. The events at the trade deadline move them backward instead.
Hader was a hot mess before the shocking deal with the San Diego Padres and struggled initially in his new threads, but lately, his luck has turned. In his last 10 outings (9.1 innings), Hader has 13 strikeouts and one walk while giving up zero earned runs on four hits. Whatever he was going through, he has figured it out just in time to push San Diego to the playoffs and give them confidence in his arm in October.
Meanwhile, Stearns' three acquisitions to "replace" Hader went in the wrong direction. Trevor Rosenthal got hurt (after recovering from another injury) and never pitched for the Brewers. Matt Bush came from the Texas Rangers with a 2.95 ERA and 1.2 HR/9, only to post a 4.30 ERA and 2.3 HR/9 in Milwaukee. The third piece, who came over in the Hader deal, was lefty Taylor Rogers. He had some issues in San Diego, but things got worse with the Brewers, producing a 5.73 ERA and 2.5 HR/9 (0.2 HR/9 with the Padres). Bush and Rogers were at the heart of Milwaukee's bullpen issues and homer-happy problems that gutted the Crew on far too many occasions during the season's final two months.
As for the offense at the deadline, not one move was made. Despite an offense with positions needing an upgrade and a lineup that continued to struggle against left-handed pitching, Stearns failed to acquire even one bat. Yes, it takes two teams to tango, and the price for certain players may have been too high in Stearns' mind. That doesn't excuse failing to improve the lineup or depth, especially with an offense that relies on matchups. Plus, trading for a bat may have counteracted the Hader trade and showed the remaining players, "we're still going for it this season." We'll never know what another option in the lineup could have meant for the club, physically and mentally.
And considering the decline in the starting rotation's overall performance - as well as the injuries that hampered them - it was negligent to fail to acquire some type of help there, either. There are always veteran pitchers with expiring contracts that could be had, including someone like the Brewers' favorite nemesis, Jose Quintana, who went to the St. Louis Cardinals instead. It was an overall failure to replace the club's lost production from 2021.
It took a total team effort to miss out on one of six playoff spots in the NL. However, these three decisions had the most immense impact on the first non-playoff season since 2017 for the Milwaukee Brewers.
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