The Weekly: One step back, to steps forward

The Weekly is a column on the Brewers. 'On' may do heavier lifting on some weeks than others.

We shouldn't call it regression, because that's not really what it is. Regression is a deterioration -- or perhaps, for us on the outside looking in, a recalibration -- of ability.

For example, Brady Anderson and his sideburns weren't actually as good as he was in 1996, when he hit a most-suspicious 50 home runs with a 1.000+ OPS and almost immediately regressed to career-expected numbers. Brady Anderson wasn't bad, per se; he enjoyed a 15-year career, logged over 1600 major league hits, over 600 of those for extra bases. But '96 was the exception and not the rule. He regressed. For a more contemporary example of Baltimore Orioles regression, see Davis, Chris. Side note: The good people of Baltimore deserve better.

(And better is coming! Have you seen Cedric Mullins play? And the young guys in Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini and more coming up, with Adley Rutschman in the wings and John Means anchoring the rotation? Last year's Orioles team was the best 50-win team in baseball history, and the AL East needs to take them seriously in 2022 or they're going to add 20-25 wins to last season's total. Don't look at the payroll, look at the team control. I digress.)

With pitchers, seldom is that initial, coruscating burst of greatness sustained throughout a career. And that's where we should probably actually discuss matters germane to a site named Brewer Fanatic. 

Corbin Burnes, once unfairly and cruelly maligned by much of the Packers-fans-in-summer contingency of Brewers Twitter, finally assembled an all-world campaign in 2021, fulfilling all the promise he brought as a rising prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers farm system. The numbers were gaudy, aside from innings pitched: a 1.63 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, ERA+ of 176, 234 strikeouts, 34 walks, while yielding a scant seven dingers. To mention an otherwise-impressive 2.43 ERA almost does those prior figures a disservice.

He threw eight innings of a no-hitter, the second in Brewers history, knocking out the one leg Bill Schroeder had to stand on from his catbird seat/bully pulpit in the press box. The Brewers lost six games in which he started due to their dreadful offense, as opposed to the outright criminal lack of run support provided to co-ace Brandon Woodruff, who got squeezed by both his own team at the plate and the umpires behind it. It was appointment television. Corbin Burnes starts, that is, not the pitiful offense or atrocious umpiring.

It's not unfair or unrealistic, though, to expect a drawback in Burnes' 2022 numbers.

First, he won't be taking teams by surprise. The book is out on Burnes and, like reliever with changeup par excellence Devin Williams, teams can begin analyzing video to determine how to adjust plate approach.

Secondly, good, young pitchers tend to take time in countering the counter. Let's look at a few examples: