The Weekly Dispatch: A Rule of Thirds

That's 41 teams, and only about half of them made it to October. The best statistical corollary to what the Brewers have done thus far is a few rows below their current campaign: last year's San Francisco Giants, who eked out the NL West on a hot final third of the season and were dismissed from the October proceedings at the hands of their ancient, transcontinental enemies in the Dodgers.

What's also notable about this list is that it is in no way a determinant of success: there are the 2003 Cincinnati Reds, who hammered the ball to roughly a .500 record and finished the season 69-93. There are also the 2017 Chicago Cubs, who were similarly around .500 and went on to win the division in 2017. Only two clubs, as you can see, won the whole dang thing. 

The Brewers have done this offensive work before, in 2001, 2017 and 2019, with Richie Sexson, Jeromy Burnitz, Jose Hernandez and Geoff Jenkins swinging away toward a 68-94 record in '01. That 2017 club that came one heartbreaking game shy of playing postseason ball. And 2019, similarly hopeful, similarly heartbreaking, except that the broken heart came when Josh Hader was extraordinarily human (Remember when he wasn't destroying batters every night?) and Trent Grisham made the error that would, in time, give the Brewers Luis Urias and Eric Lauer.

The other story here in the midst of all this offensive data is that it takes really good pitching to make offense count; that's what the Brewers have done thus far, and how the 2019 Washington Nationals and 2021 Atlanta Braves similarly 1) drove the Brewers out of October and 2) beat the Houston Astros to win it all. It's not a well-substantiated blueprint for success, but a [recent] blueprint nonetheless.

There are still reasons to be bullish on this Brewers squad: The disproportionately road-heavy schedule now is complemented by a much more palatable second half featuring five of six series at home to close the season and zero three-city road trips. It won't necessarily be an easier schedule, but it's nothing compared to the logistical meat grinder the Brewers have been thrown into here in the front half of the season. The defense (and offense) will soon be bolstered by the return of Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe. Three teams in the Central are not actively trying to win and the Brewers have 35 games against them the rest of the way; the Brewers have been fairly effective in 2022 at taking care of business against beatable opponents.

There are also reasons to be concerned: as mentioned above, performance now is no indicator of future success. Some teams go on to the postseason, some flame out, most that do make it don't win pennants and none of these teams that played October ball had an OBP at the end of May as low as the 2022 Brewers. There are the soft tissue injuries (Adames, Brosseau, Renfroe, Urias) that seldom entirely resolve as a season grinds on. Christian Yelich surfaced for a moment and is mired again, now in a 3-29 slump entering Saturday, while batting nearly 100 points beneath his weight and OBP is not far over it.

What if the bats come back to life? What if the pitching falters? What if the defensive yips up and down the roster continue? What if the team is plagued by more injuries? What if the Stearns-Arnold administration makes a move? The sense we get of this Brewers club is that there isn't much sense we can make of this club.

And that kind of uncertainty engenders a disquiet amongst fans and followers that understandably leads to skepticism and doubt. What complicates this skepticism is that the Brewers have been postseason players for three years now with nothing to show for it but excruciating losses. At some point, people grow numb to a team that wins enough to lose when it really counts.

Our rule of thirds here is that there are two-thirds of a season that can swing this club wildly in any direction. The Brewers are in a mix of contenders and cellar-dwellars and could as easily follow two of the last three World Series champions as they could those 2003 Reds, or, far more unlikely, their 2001 forebears. It's quite literally all in play.