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  • The Top 10 Milwaukee Brewers Assets in 2023: #6-10


    Kyle Ginsbach

    The Milwaukee Brewers are a small market team that needs to effectively manage its assets, often with an eye to the future. Here are some of the most valuable assets the team currently holds.

    Image courtesy of © Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    The rankings below are a relative view of Brewers players and prospects based on the answer to one question: How valuable is this player to the Milwaukee Brewers organization?

    We’ve done our best to account for all things a baseball player can provide in value, including age, contract, controllability, potential, etc. The rankings do not directly correlate with trade value. Instead, the list better represents how valuable a player is to the organization.

    With that setup, here are my picks for the 6th through 10th most valuable assets in the Milwaukee Brewers organization heading into the 2023 season.

    The Top 10 Brewers Assets for 2023: 6 through 10

    Honorable Mention. Christian Yelich, OF
    Conventionally, Christain Yelich’s contract single-handedly ruins his monetary value. There’s no denying that, but Yelich can be worth more than his contract with the Brewers. 

    For whatever reason, the MVP form of Christian Yelich has disappeared over the last three years. Still, Yelich is now one of the longest-tenured Brewers and still possesses a high offensive ceiling with a relatively low floor. By giving him an honorable mention nod, I’m betting Yelich will take steps towards returning to being the player he was in 2018-2019, which can come with improved health and some minor adjustments.

    A fully healthy Yelich is still capable of playing 140+ games, hitting 20 home runs, and getting on base at a high clip. Will he play at a $26 million level? Probably not, but there’s no denying Yelich will be a key contributor if the Brewers are successful.

    10. Rowdy Tellez, 1B
    With two more years of inexpensive control left, Tellez has a shot at breaking out this year. The first base job is his to lose, and with changes to the shift coming, Tellez’s already plus bat could see an uptick in production. If Tellez can find a way to have a few more hits fall, he has the potential to be one of the better-hitting first basemen in the league. 

    If Rowdy Tellez puts it all together, there's a world where the Brewers keep him around for a long time. Already a key clubhouse member, Rowdy is a larger-than-life personality who also swings a pretty good bat.

    9. Jesse Winker, OF/DH
    Coming into a contract year, Jesse Winker could be a huge contributor for the Brewers offensively. His checkered bill of health is concerning, as is his poor performance last year, but there’s plenty of reason to believe Winker can be the player the Brewers saw back when he was a member of the Cincinnati Reds. 

    There’s also a possibility that Winker will be moved near the trade deadline. I see two scenarios where this is possible: one where the Brewers are out of the race early or a world where Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer can comfortably fill a vacant spot should Winker be moved. It may seem unlikely now, but it’s worth mentioning. 

    A healthy Jesse Winker can quickly become an offensive nucleus for the Brewers. Even though Winker likely won't be in a Brewer past 2023, I expect him to be an important bat in a competitive season, even if it's only for a single season.

    8. Luis Urías, 2B
    Luis Urías is still only 25 years old. He has three years of control and has already proven he can be valuable with the glove and bat.

    His power is what makes Urías such a pleasant surprise. Coming through the minor leagues with the Padres, Urías wasn't given a friendly grade regarding his power but has shown he can slug over .400 while popping 20 homers. 

    Throughout his young career, Urías has been able to stay relatively healthy, showing he can play multiple infield positions. Urias may not be the most exciting player, but he’ll generate 3-4 WAR for a low price.

    7. Devin Williams, RP
    The only thing hurting Devin Williams’ overall value is that he’s a relief pitcher. Williams made his first all-star game in 2022 and took over the closer role following the Josh Hader trade. His season numbers were excellent, posting a 1.93 ERA, a WHIP of 1.005, and FIP of just 2.01. 

    There’s no doubt Williams will be able to replicate his dominance on the mound in the future, but as a closer, the Brewers need to win late for him to get into games. The more that happens, the more valuable Williams will become.

    The Brewers will lean on Williams to navigate them in and out of trouble in 2022 and beyond and there's no reasonable doubt he can't do it.

    6.  Jackson Chourio, OF
    You could very well argue that Jackson Chourio is the most valuable player in the Brewers organization right now, and in many ways, you’d be right.

    At just 18 years of age, Chourio is not only the Brewers' top prospect but also one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He had a fantastic season throughout the minor leagues in 2022, including being named the Carolina League Most Valuable Player, winning a MILB gold glove, and slashing .288/.342/.538 between three teams.

    There’s no doubt that Chourio, traditionally speaking, is the most valuable asset the Brewers have. However, there’s one thing holding him back on my list. Jackson Chourio’s impact likely won’t be felt in 2023. It might not even be felt in 2024. He’s too valuable to be traded and too young to impact the big-league club. With only a handful of AA games under his belt, Chourio still has a ways to go before he's ready to contribute to the big league club. Because of that, Chourio needs time, so for as valuable and talented as he is, there’s nothing we can do but wait.

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    I don't even see the point mentioning Singleton. Singleton's career was derailed by his substance abuse issues. Who knows what he could have done if it wasn't for that. 

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    22 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

    Guys like Kieth Law? That Harvard educated economist slash sports journalist who never played baseball? 

    You know, the guy who published an article in September titled “Guys I was Wrong About”

     If it was a science or required a specific skill not everyone could do it. Yet literally anyone can compile a list of baseball players and argue until they’re blue in the face how awesome they are or how dumb anyone who questions them may be. 

    Yes, because you should take what one expert/evaluator says and accept it as the law (pun intended). As opposed to looking at a multiplicity of experts/evaluators and averaging out their collective opinions. 

    But you so obviously don’t know what you’re talking about, so I’m just gonna stop here..

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    1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

    Nope. I’ve got a calculator and baseball reference bookmarked. 
     

    You too with a little time and effort could calculate Singleton’s PAs and OPS through age 20, and then even determine exactly how much offensive production Chourio will have to generate in the next two seasons to match it. 
     

    Singleton wasn’t a slouch in the low levels of the minors. 

    You seem to think you have it figured out. Bless you.

     

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    12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

    Who says they're comparable? Sportswriters looking for clicks? And "Actual Comparables" is based on what; other players who had big minor league seasons as kids in the low level minors? None of the prospect game is scientific, it's heartstrings and hopes and making educated guesses. 

    To illustrate further:

    Singleton-Low A at 18: 872 OPS (450 ABs), High A at 19 : .834 OPS(530 ABs), AA at 20: .893 (555 ABs).

    Chourio-Low A at 18: 973 OPS (250 ABs) High A at 18: .805 OPS (127 ABs), AA at 18: .284 OPS (23 ABs).

    Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

    When someone has made their mind up and won't consider alternative possibilities, there's no real point in further discussion.

    However, I'm sure you didn't realize but it is worth noting anyways, Chourio did play for the Brewers rookie ball team in '21 in the Dominican Rookie Summer League. It's really splitting hairs to assert he "skipped rookie ball entirely".  

    Is it in any way fair to compare Chourio to Singleton when one is 18 and one is 20? I'd also point out Chourios numbers at Wisconsin were exceptional especially considering the BABIP at least 50 points lower than I'd expect of a speedster in high A

    Obviously he needs to keep developing but all the scouts are talking about his swing, the exit velos for a guy his size, and it seems very mookie like/ rodriguez like.

    Obviously time will tell, but if he fills out that frame at all, and can develop slightly to cover the pitch away a bit better, watch out, Big time

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    I've seen trade value lists and I've seen lists of value to a team this year. This list seems to be trying to split the difference and it has led to some real strange results.

    While I might not put them my list, I wouldn't quibble with Winker or Tellez being put on a list of highest value to the team for this year. Winker has had some great offensive seasons and Tellez seems like the type who has at least one 2018 Jesus Aguilar season in him. That said, neither belong anywhere near a trade value top 10. And similarly, Chourio seems tracking toward a 2024 debut, or at least really late 2023, so he doesn't belong on a list of contributors for this season.

    Basically you have to really contort and combine criteria to create a list with both Chourio and Winker/Tellez on it.

    As far as trade value goes, I'd be pretty close to the list SveumRules posted earlier. I might be tempted to swap Frelick and Quero, but that would be more of my own personal opinion rather than what they would bring back in a trade.

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    21 hours ago, Robocaller said:

    By BTV, it's:

    1. Burnes

    2. Chourio

    3.  Peralta

    4. Woodruff

    5. Adames

    6. Contreras

    7. Williams

    8. Ashby

    9. Frelick

    10. Urias

    11. Mitchell

    12. Wiemer

    13. Taylor

    14. Turang.

    15. Brown

    16. Black

    17. Lauer

    18. Quero.

    I can't see justification for moving any of them more than 2-3 slots.

     

     

    That's a pretty good compilation of "Brewers' most valuable assets." 

    Put another way, if the Brewers traded for a prospect of Chourio's level for someone like Winker, Tellez, Lauer or Houser, Arnold would immediately go down in GM folklore. Heck, if he could trade Tellez for someone on Frelick's level he'd do it in a heartbeat without regard to the 2022 first base situation.

    It's also kind of funny that Urias, the guy so many people are clamoring to replace, is one of our most valuable assets. I'd prefer he play second base, but he's not someone we should be looking to turn into a utility infielder.

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