The Top 10 Milwaukee Brewers Assets in 2023: #6-10

I don’t want to hurt the author’s feelings, but if Tellez and Winker are the Brewers 9th and 10th most valuable assets they’re in big trouble. They might not even be the 9-10th most valuable assets on their 40 man roster. 

37 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I agree with this. I was thinking the same thing as I read it. But then I saw Chourio at #6 and thought if he's at #6, this organization is in a great spot! 

But even #6 is kind of a goofy position to take. An intriguing prospect, absolutely. But still a child, and multiple seasons away from being a regular in the majors. Moreover, with only low level minors experience, but good numbers at that, anything can still happen to his trajectory at this point: boom or bust.
 

With that being said, all of their key every day  major leaguers are more valuable to the organization in the here and now, as well as the few premium prospects they have who are near major league ready. 

I think if Chourio has a good 2022 season, he's going to be in Milwaukee sooner than a couple seasons from now.

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I think if Chourio has a good 2022 season, he's going to be in Milwaukee sooner than a couple seasons from now.

 

He already had a good season with in ‘22. You mean ‘23. Sure if he puts up a .900 OPS in AA maybe they skip AAA altogether but that’s not really the Brewers style, especially a player who isn’t even 19 yet.

8 minutes ago, Kyle Ginsbach said:

No need to worry about my feelings! 

I certainly see the thought process behind not being a fan of seeing both Winker and Tellez on the list, but I truly think both Winker and Tellez are slated to have great offensive seasons in 2023. I could certainly see prospects such as Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer getting spots on this list if I were to put it together at the All-Star Break, but they all have areas to improve (Mitchell's concerning MLB K% or Frelick's power tool for example), and I hesitate to value a prospect highly when they don't have the type of ceiling Chourio does. Sure the years of control are attractive, but they'll mean nothing If they aren't successful at the big league level.

That being said, If guys like the aforementioned Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer take strike this year, they'll certainly be on the list next year. Even guys like Turang, Gasser, Black, and Quero have chances to crack the list next year. I'm a fan of some of all the young minor league talent the Brewers have, but I'm trying to be cautiously optimistic. 

I suppose, but how can 1-4 be anything but Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer? Then Adames and Contreras at 5-6, then you have to figure Houser and Ashby around 7-8 as they both are bonafide major leaguers who can start and relieve with better than average results. Add in Urias, Devin Williams, that's 10 right there. As highly touted minor leaguers at the cusp of the majors you'd have to have Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer somewhere near there. Then, Tyrone Taylor (not my favorite player) but plays all three OF spots and remains pre-arbitration eligible. Now we'd be getting into the flawed players area where I think Winker, Tellez fit. Yelich is the great unknown too. I doubt he ever "finds it" again, but if he did he would be #1 or #2 with a bullet. 

I think if you're talking pure value in terms of trade values and what you'd get in a return, Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta are top of the list (Peralta because of his team friendly deal)

Chourio could be in that group and was suggested he'd have been 1-1 in this years draft, comfortably by Keith Law

Adames would be next at Number 5, and comfortably so

Urias

may be 6 due to his contract and + Offensive bat, plus he's a quality defender

7-10 take your pick

52 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

I would argue that the fact that he has about 8-9 years of team control, including another minor league season or even two, 3-4 years of cheap cost, and then 3-4 arbitration years. 

Woodruff is very valuable in 2023 and probably will cost around $10 million, but he's only got two years of service time yet. 

In a trade, the Brewers could get more for dealing just Chourio than probably anyone but Burnes and Adames... 

Not a chance. Major league  league starting pitching brings more every time. 
 

Chourio doesn’t have as much value to other clubs as one would think.
 

1.) Elite prospect for elite prospect trades rarely if ever happen.

2.) Teams trying to compete now, aren’t going to trade key veterans for Chourio as it’s counter intuitive. 

3.) Given where the Brewers competitive window is, they can’t really afford to trade too many young players for veterans from the non-contenders. 

As for his internal value to the Brewers, Chourio could very well be the next Ryan Braun, but nobody is going to have more than blind guess (ex. check out his winter league stats… they’re not good) if that’s true (best case scenario) at least for another year or possibly more, by which that time most of the current 25 man roster will either be gone or almost out the door. 
It would be a different story if he blew the doors off of AA last year and was ticketed for AAA, he’s still a ways away.

Honestly, if we're talking about surplus value, Chourio is probably up there with Corbin Burnes as our most valuable franchise asset. Indeed, this is backed up by BTV, which has Chourio just three points shy of Burnes. I get that he's a prospect. but he's among the elites of elites in terms of prospects (Acuna, Rodriguez, Soto, etc.) for what he's already accomplished at his age. 

13 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 

As for his internal value to the Brewers, Chourio could very well be the next Ryan Braun, but nobody is going to have more than blind guess (ex. check out his winter league stats… they’re not good) if that’s true (best case scenario) at least for another year or possibly more, by which that time most of the current 25 man roster will either be gone or almost out the door. 
It would be a different story if he blew the doors off of AA last year and was ticketed for AAA, he’s still a ways away.

First of all, you can take his winter league stats with less than a grain of salt considering the extremely small sample size and the fact that he's more than a decade younger than the average player....

Second, he's not as far away as you think. The median expectation from industry experts is that he'll arrive in the majors sometime next season, while there are a non-trivial number of evaluators who think he could make his debut later in this coming season. 

I also contest that it's no more than a "blind guess" that he'll pan out for the Brewers. What he's accomplished at his age is something that only a handful of prospects have done in recent years (Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Rodriguez, etc.), and all of them ended up becoming superstars. Chourio could ultimately prove to be the exception given the inherently fickle nature of prospects, but it's certainly more than a "blind guess" given the company he's established himself to be in...

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

First of all, you can take his winter league stats with less than a grain of salt considering the extremely small sample size and the fact that he's more than a decade younger than the average player....

Second, he's not as far away as you think. The median expectation from industry experts is that he'll arrive in the majors sometime next season, while there are a non-trivial number of evaluators who think he could make his debut later in this coming season. 

I also contest that it's no more than a "blind guess" that he'll pan out for the Brewers. What he's accomplished at his age is something that only a handful of prospects have done in recent years (Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr., Vlad Jr., Rodriguez, etc.), and all of them ended up becoming superstars. Chourio could ultimately prove to be the exception given the inherently fickle nature of prospects, but it's certainly more than a "blind guess" given the company he's established himself to be in...

It is a blind guess because for every Tatis Jr. there’s a Jon Singleton. He looks promising I hope it turns out that way, but it’s still just guessing on future production based on past performance. 
 

As for timing, never say never, but in the last 25 years the Brewers haven’t really skipped any of their prospects through the upper minors to the major leagues, so it likely will be sometime before Chourio is a major league regular even if he continues to rake. Prince Fielder the best high school prospect they previously had; put up a 921 OPS in the minors yet played most of a season at each level. 

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It is a blind guess because for every Tatis Jr. there’s a Jon Singleton. He looks promising I hope it turns out that way, but it’s still just guessing on future production based on past performance. 
 

As for timing, never say never, but in the last 25 years the Brewers haven’t really skipped any of their prospects through the upper minors to the major leagues, so it likely will be sometime before Chourio is a major league regular even if he continues to rake. Prince Fielder the best high school prospect they previously had; put up a 921 OPS in the minors yet played most of a season at each level. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. Tatis Jr. and Singleton are not, and never will be, remotely comparable prospects. Tatis Jr. and Chourio are comparable. But Singleton has no relevance to them. When you look at Chourio's actual comparables (Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Rodriguez) you can see that it's more than a "blind guess". Not a certainty, but not a blind guess...

Also, you do realize that, in this past season alone, Chourio skipped rookie ball entirely, and then moved up three whole levels??? Not sure why 25 years or Prince Fielder is relevant here when we have definitive, recent evidence that the Brewers are willing to push Chourio up the ladder...

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B.

Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS.

Those are two way different calibres of prospects.

And Chourio is already at 2 (BA) following his age 18 season...

Considering some assortment of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Adames/Contreras have to be 1-5 I would agree with the list for the most part. Since this is about how valuable the player is to the Brewers organization I would think Yelich would be somewhere in the 8-10 range as he is still the face of the franchise, likely would be the number one answer if a Family Feud type question was asked of a 100 random fans outside the stadium. 

This will likely be the lowest Chourio will be for a long  time but okay at 7 right now.. Agree with Winker on the list because the Brewers are pretty much counting on him to have a bounce back season. I think Ashby can make a strong case to be on the list, clearly they targeted him as somebody they will count on for a long time and somebody to take over for Woodruff/Burnes when they leave.

39 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No. Tatis Jr. and Singleton are not, and never will be, remotely comparable prospects. Tatis Jr. and Chourio are comparable. But Singleton has no relevance to them. When you look at Chourio's actual comparables (Soto, Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Rodriguez) you can see that it's more than a "blind guess". Not a certainty, but not a blind guess...

Also, you do realize that, in this past season alone, Chourio skipped rookie ball entirely, and then moved up three whole levels??? Not sure why 25 years or Prince Fielder is relevant here when we have definitive, recent evidence that the Brewers are willing to push Chourio up the ladder...

Who says they're comparable? Sportswriters looking for clicks? And "Actual Comparables" is based on what; other players who had big minor league seasons as kids in the low level minors? None of the prospect game is scientific, it's heartstrings and hopes and making educated guesses. 

To illustrate further:

Singleton-Low A at 18: 872 OPS (450 ABs), High A at 19 : .834 OPS(530 ABs), AA at 20: .893 (555 ABs).

Chourio-Low A at 18: 973 OPS (250 ABs) High A at 18: .805 OPS (127 ABs), AA at 18: .284 OPS (23 ABs).

Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

When someone has made their mind up and won't consider alternative possibilities, there's no real point in further discussion.

However, I'm sure you didn't realize but it is worth noting anyways, Chourio did play for the Brewers rookie ball team in '21 in the Dominican Rookie Summer League. It's really splitting hairs to assert he "skipped rookie ball entirely".  

By BTV, it's:

1. Burnes

2. Chourio

3.  Peralta

4. Woodruff

5. Adames

6. Contreras

7. Williams

8. Ashby

9. Frelick

10. Urias

11. Mitchell

12. Wiemer

13. Taylor

14. Turang.

15. Brown

16. Black

17. Lauer

18. Quero.

I can't see justification for moving any of them more than 2-3 slots.

21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

If so, you have greater wisdom than just about everyone who studies baseball prospects.

30 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Who says they're comparable? Sportswriters looking for clicks? And "Actual Comparables" is based on what; other players who had big minor league seasons as kids in the low level minors? None of the prospect game is scientific, it's heartstrings and hopes and making educated guesses. 

To illustrate further:

Singleton-Low A at 18: 872 OPS (450 ABs), High A at 19 : .834 OPS(530 ABs), AA at 20: .893 (555 ABs).

Chourio-Low A at 18: 973 OPS (250 ABs) High A at 18: .805 OPS (127 ABs), AA at 18: .284 OPS (23 ABs).

Chourio will have to be on top of his game for the next two years, just to match what Singleton did in the minors through age 20, yet they're not comparable prospects for some reason?

When someone has made their mind up and won't consider alternative possibilities, there's no real point in further discussion.

However, I'm sure you didn't realize but it is worth noting anyways, Chourio did play for the Brewers rookie ball team in '21 in the Dominican Rookie Summer League. It's really splitting hairs to assert he "skipped rookie ball entirely".  

Who says? Actual prospect industry scouts, experts, and evaluators...You know, people who do this for a living. As @sveumrules pointed out, Chourio and Tatis Jr. are/were top 5 multitool teenage prospects, while Singleton was a hit-only prospect who peaked at #25. Even then, Chourio's age 18 season with the bat was significantly better than Singleton's age 18 season with the bat. 

Also, the DSL, while technically "rookie ball", is in practice a level beneath the Brewers' Arizona rookie affiliates. Henry Mendez, for instance, was in the same international FA class as Chourio, but still did the DSL AND ACL, while Chourio skipped the ACL entirely and then progressed all the way to AA. But, yes, 25 years and Prince Fielder are more relevant for thinking about how the Brewers will handle Chourio's progression...

24 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

If so, you have greater wisdom than just about everyone who studies baseball prospects.

 

Nope. I’ve got a calculator and baseball reference bookmarked. 
 

You too with a little time and effort could calculate Singleton’s PAs and OPS through age 20, and then even determine exactly how much offensive production Chourio will have to generate in the next two seasons to match it. 
 

Singleton wasn’t a slouch in the low levels of the minors. 

25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Who says? Actual prospect industry scouts, experts, and evaluators...You know, people who do this for a living.

Guys like Kieth Law? That Harvard educated economist slash sports journalist who never played baseball? 

You know, the guy who published an article in September titled “Guys I was Wrong About”

 If it was a science or required a specific skill not everyone could do it. Yet literally anyone can compile a list of baseball players and argue until they’re blue in the face how awesome they are or how dumb anyone who questions them may be.