The State of the Brewers: Starting Rotation – Depth And Questions

The top three of the rotation – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta – all would be aces on just about any other major-league team. But while the short-term situation looks very good, what happens to the Crew over the medium and long term as service time accumulates?

The 40-Man Roster
Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta will be the Crew’s top three starters at the start of 2023. Put it in indelible ink. All three have dominated, and that dominance has fueled the latter half of the Brewers’ four consecutive playoff appearances, not to mention the near-miss of 2022.

Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Aaron Ashby, and Wade Miley are right behind them. With Ashby likely headed to the disabled list with shoulder soreness, joining 2022 depth option Jason Alexander, who is already on the 60-day DL, the Crew’s depth is still okay. Still, already, an eye is looking to Nashville. The pitchers in this second tier could easily range from a high-end #2 starter (Lauer) to solid #3 pitchers (Ashby, Miley, and Houser).

In Nashville, the Brewers have Ethan Small, who dominated in AAA but struggled in Milwaukee. Bryse Wilson and Janson Junk have primarily been starters in their major-league careers, giving the Brewers some additional options until Ashby and Alexander get healthy.

The Non-Roster Invitees
Robert Gasser is another young left-handed pitcher, the last player left on the Brewers from the infamous Josh Hader deal. He’s put up some solid numbers in his minor-league career and could be an option if the 60-day DL gets more occupants.

J.C. Mejia has done both starting and relieving in his professional career, while Colin Rea put in a starter-like outing in 2021 for the Crew from the bullpen. Tobias Myers is only 23 but has a lot of experience in minor-league rotations. Tyler Herb is 30, with a long career of starting in the minors and independent-league ball.

X-Factors/Potential Breakouts
Justin Jarvis, a fifth-round pick in 2018, will likely start in AA but has looked solid and dependable. Victor Castenada has also emerged as a decent option who would move into the Brewers’ second tier by the end of 2023. Brandon Knarr, an undrafted free agent, has looked like an incredible Suter-esque find.

Further down the minors, the Brewers have some exciting prospects in Stiven Cruz, Carlos Rodriguez, and Jacob Misiorowski. Cruz, an international free agent, and Rodriguez, a sixth-round pick in 2021, posted more strikeouts than innings pitched. Misiorowski had just two games, but his potential is already exciting some fans.

Two others who could sneak into the discussion are Logan Henderson and Tyler Woessner. The former, a fourth-round pick in 2021, debuted in 2022 and posted Hader-like K/9s as a starter. The latter, a sixth-round pick in 2022, dominated in a brief sample.

Then there are some true X-factors/unknowns: Who will come in what seems to be the inevitable Burnes and Woodruff trades, for starters? We have yet to learn who that could be or if a miracle extension happens for one (or both) of these players. We know the Brewers will insist on at least some young pitchers, but we don’t know who they will be or where they will be on the road to MLB.

Overview
For 2023, the Brewers are in excellent shape. There appears to be enough depth to overcome what looks like, for now, two of their second-tier starting pitchers going on the DL to start the season, while their top three look to be intact. The medium-term has questions, primarily due to the uncertainty of the Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer situation past this season. Will they stick around, or will they be dealt? There are some decent options in the upper minors, though, and for the long term, the Brewers could have some very excellent starting pitchers come down the pike.