The Curious Case of Keston Hiura: What Will His Role Be in 2023?

I guess he will be back for this season hopefully he can be used correctly 

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I'd make a case we have no idea what to expect from Winker because he'll be recovering from two surgeries after having a very atypical season in 2022.  He could revert to his pre-2022 self, or he could continue to fall off a cliff. No one knows 100%. I suspect he'll be closer to his pre-2022 performance, but there's literally no telling.

Yeah, Winker is no guarantee, not sure why anyone is willing to die on that hill.

I'm hoping we get the good version, but we could just as easily get last year's version.

50/50 shot imo.

I think its a lot to hope that all the possible youngsters contribute right away.

6 hours ago, TURBO said:

Yeah, Winker is no guarantee, not sure why anyone is willing to die on that hill.

I'm hoping we get the good version, but we could just as easily get last year's version.

50/50 shot imo.

Last year's version of Winker is still an above average hitter.

9 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Last year's version of Winker is still an above average hitter.

Better than Renfroe?  Wong?  Hiura?

13 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Better than Renfroe?  Wong?  Hiura?

Better than McCutchen. 

Hiura also got like 300 less at-bats...Given his K rate and other metrics, he likely would've fallen below Winker, too. 

Steamer Projections for 2023:

Winker: .249/.355/.424 (122 wRC+)

Hiura: .215/.298/.408 (99 wRC+)

Renfroe: .240/.304/.468 (116 wRC+)

Wong: .251/.323/.387 (109 wRC+)

Probably a conservative estimate for Winker, too, given his career line....

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Steamer Projections for 2023:

Winker: .249/.355/.424 (122 wRC+)

Hiura: .215/.298/.408 (99 wRC+)

Renfroe: .240/.304/.468 (116 wRC+)

Wong: .251/.323/.387 (109 wRC+)

Probably a conservative estimate for Winker, too, given his career line....

I understand you are really high on Winker, but I think your fandom might be tainting your views a bit.

The guy was horrendous last year, and has had major surgery in the off season.

I truly hope he is all that you think he will be, but I don't think we can anoint him our savior just yet.

Apparently OPS is no longer a sought after stat teams should use to build offensive rosters, since the Brewers shipped away two of their top 3 bats from last season in that department (Renfroe and Wong) and all of Hiura's other metrics make him a terrible hitter who can't possibly maintain an above league average OPS...despite the fact he carried an above league average OPS last season in sporadic playing time.

Getting on base and hitting for power/slugging (all other metrics on how a player gets there be damned) must not matter much in today's MLB...except for the fact the 2022 MLB playoff teams accounted for 8 of the top 10 and 11 of the top 16 offenses in MLB based on team OPS last season.  The Brewers were somehow 10th in team OPS last year, which indicates if they pitched up to expectations they would've been a playoff team.

My point isn't necessarily that Hiura should be the everyday DH in 2023 based on the current roster configuration...I hope Winker reverts back to pre 2022 production and Hiura improves against lefties enough so they both are positive offensive contributors.  I think his role will get sorted out in Spring Training if he's still on the roster - my point is the production Hiura did provide in 2022 warranted him getting more opportunities last year with that teams' offensive roster, and he wasn't given them at the MLB level primarily because they paid a mid 30s OF on the physical decline $8.5M to provide a 0.700 OPS across 580 plate appearances as the primary DH.

To me the worst decision was to send Hiura to AAA early in the season, after he had a good Spring Training then proceeded to be a bench player who had most of his ABs come against lefthanded pitching into May.  The same people saying small samples should be discounted then taking a 3 week stretch of semi-consistent at bats from Hiura in late August/early September as a reason why he stinks is just too ironic for me.  Hiura really has just 1.5 seasons of MLB plate appearance across parts of 4 MLB seasons, which is honestly still not enough of a sample to accurately forecast what he'll do moving forward.

Hiura's total regular season plate appearance totals since 2018 (minors + majors):

2018:  535 - K rate of about 20%  between A+ and AA

2019:  591 - K rate of about 28% between AAA and MLB

2020:  246  (COVID year) - K rate of 34%

2021:  403  - K rate of about 37% between MLB and AAA

2022:  325 - K rate of about 39% between MLB and AAA

I don't believe he's suffered a major injury to cause him to miss significant time over the previous 2 seasons, so those season-long plate appearance totals in 2021-2022 are a disservice to his development as a hitter, particularly at the MLB level.  Is there a correlation between a higher K rate and more sporadic ABs?  Sure there is, but then the flip side is he likely wouldn't have had as as much turbulence out of lineups at the MLB level if he wasn't striking out so much, too.  He also dealt with having his mother fighting lymphoma throughout 2021.

Many players scuffled offensively during that shortened COVID season in 2020 - but I think it impacted Hiura moreso than other more established hitters, as he had to suffer through trying to make that 1st adjustment all young hitters do against MLB pitching once they've gotten a book on him during a season without video assistance in the clubhouse and when extra work/practice opportunities were severely limited for fear of virus transmission. 

the most easily explainable reason for the sky-high k rates in recent years is likely the changes made to his swing path to improve launch angle and HR rate, which reduces the length of time his bat is in the hitting area of a swing....for a guy who leans on hand speed so heavily to do damage at the plate and naturally has more of a slider-speed bat in today's game because of it, that was probably a very poor decision for his career arc. But, I also really hope he's gotten his eyesight checked....

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

Better than Renfroe?  Wong?  Hiura?

Based on the actual performance, those 3 were better last year. Based on the expected performance stats from statcast, Winker was better than all 3 last year. He had a BABIP .046 points below his career average last season. His career numbers dwarf their career numbers.

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hiura's total regular season plate appearance totals since 2018 (minors + majors):

2018:  535 - K rate of about 20%  between A+ and AA

2019:  591 - K rate of about 28% between AAA and MLB

2020:  246  (COVID year) - K rate of 34%

2021:  403  - K rate of about 37% between MLB and AAA

2022:  325 - K rate of about 39% between MLB and AAA

I don't believe he's suffered a major injury to cause him to miss significant time over the previous 2 seasons, so those season-long plate appearance totals in 2021-2022 are a disservice to his development as a hitter, particularly at the MLB level.  Is there a correlation between a higher K rate and more sporadic ABs?  Sure there is, but then the flip side is he likely wouldn't have had as as much turbulence out of lineups at the MLB level if he wasn't striking out so much, too.  He also dealt with having his mother fighting lymphoma throughout 2021.

Many players scuffled offensively during that shortened COVID season in 2020 - but I think it impacted Hiura moreso than other more established hitters, as he had to suffer through trying to make that 1st adjustment all young hitters do against MLB pitching once they've gotten a book on him during a season without video assistance in the clubhouse and when extra work/practice opportunities were severely limited for fear of virus transmission. 

the most easily explainable reason for the sky-high k rates in recent years is likely the changes made to his swing path to improve launch angle and HR rate, which reduces the length of time his bat is in the hitting area of a swing....for a guy who leans on hand speed so heavily to do damage at the plate and naturally has more of a slider-speed bat in today's game because of it, that was probably a very poor decision for his career arc. But, I also really hope he's gotten his eyesight checked....

 

 

Hiura has a consistent hole in his swing dating back to his rookie season that he hasn't shown he can close yet. Until that happens, he's going to continue to struggle making consistent contact.

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

I understand you are really high on Winker, but I think your fandom might be tainting your views a bit.

The guy was horrendous last year, and has had major surgery in the off season.

I truly hope he is all that you think he will be, but I don't think we can anoint him our savior just yet.

I never anointed him as a savior. That's just putting words in my mouth. 

I don't know how you can say fandom is tainting my views either when I'm literally just regurgitating widely available stats. All of which, aside from 2022 (where Hiura had almost 300 less plate appearances), say that Winker is a superior hitter. And the two season previous to that, Winker was a top 15 hitter in the entire game.

Nor was he even "horrendous" last season. Statistically, he was an above average hitter (109 wRC+).

We do have to wait and see how he responds to surgery, but I see no reason not to be optimistic given that he's only 29...God knows we can use his high OBP/low K profile in this lineup at the bare minimum. 

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Winker had a 109 wRC+ last year. That is horrendous?

I guess if you want to compare it to the 145 wRC+ he posted from 2020-21, sure.

Against righties it was a bit lower… 99? The saving grace was him walking at a high rate, not actually hitting the ball.(211 vs RHP). This is the issue for me. It’s a risk where Wong was less risky and filled 2B/ infield with more certainty. But like others said, he was extraordinarily good against RHP in the previous few years when presumably healthy, even just in 2021. Is Wong worth it to find out? We’ll find out.

18 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Against righties it was a bit lower… 99? The saving grace was him walking at a high rate, not actually hitting the ball.(211 vs RHP). This is the issue for me. It’s a risk where Wong was less risky and filled 2B/ infield with more certainty. But like others said, he was extraordinarily good against RHP in the previous few years when presumably healthy, even just in 2021. Is Wong worth it to find out? We’ll find out.

Was Wong less risky? He set career best offensive seasons in his 2 years with the Brewers. Does he maintain that in 2023 or does he return to Cardinals Wong without the elite defense?

26 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Was Wong less risky? He set career best offensive seasons in his 2 years with the Brewers. Does he maintain that in 2023 or does he return to Cardinals Wong without the elite defense?

I'm thinking the latter given that he'll be hitting in more cavernous T-Mobile. Am Fam was about as friendly as it gets for his particular swing. 

3 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Was Wong less risky? He set career best offensive seasons in his 2 years with the Brewers. Does he maintain that in 2023 or does he return to Cardinals Wong without the elite defense?

Wong was/is less risky, yes. Imo, Winker is a bigger question mark than Wong. However, the ceiling is higher with Winker while the floor is also lower. Opening 2B up involves higher risk too than trying to fill an OF spot, where we have several  candidates to fill innings and at bats.

20 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Wong was/is less risky, yes. Imo, Winker is a bigger question mark than Wong. However, the ceiling is higher with Winker while the floor is also lower. Opening 2B up involves higher risk too than trying to fill an OF spot, where we have several  candidates to fill innings and at bats.

Winker is likely to be a DH predominantly.  He’s our replacement for McCutchen.

3B heart throb 

On 12/28/2022 at 1:06 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Better than McCutchen. 

Hiura also got like 300 less at-bats...Given his K rate and other metrics, he likely would've fallen below Winker, too. 

I agree completely

Hiura was dreadful last year … 42% strike out rate (worst in MLB) … only made contact 68% of the time with balls in strike zone (4th worst in MLB) … I hope he plays elsewhere in 2023 

I can’t fathom bringing back McCutcheon for another season either … I’d rather see Wiemer get a chance - even if he struggles as a rookie

On 12/28/2022 at 1:43 PM, sveumrules said:

Even with sporadic playing time spread out over multiple seasons, two things can be accurately forecasted. His K% and defensive ineptitude. Barring a major adjustment or approach change he is going to strikeout at an alarming rate and never be relied upon to provide any defensive value.

This is the primary reason he only has 1.5 seasons of PAs over four years. Well, that and he stunk from 2020-21. 

His results moving forward will depend entirely on batted ball luck just as they have in the past....

2019: 348 PA | .402 BABIP | 24.1 HR/FB% | 139 wRC+
2020-21: 443 PA | .271 BABIP | 18.9 HR/FB% | 71 wRC+
2022: 266 PA | .355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB% | 115 wRC+  

Bingo

time to move on from Hiura 

On 12/27/2022 at 6:29 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, we'll see. I wouldn't be absolutely opposed to Hiura being on the opening day roster. Just not as someone who we'd be relying on to play a major role in this offense. 

Boo … ?

On 12/27/2022 at 9:44 AM, Jopal78 said:

Since arbitration salaries are not guaranteed until opening day there is no risk for Milwaukee bringing him to camp as depth.

 

 

 

 

 

This actually changed in the latest CBA.  Arbitration salaries are fully guaranteed.