The Curious Case of Keston Hiura: What Will His Role Be in 2023?

25 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think he has a role on the team. I doubt he makes it to Spring Training as a Brewer.

I think they would have shipped him off by now if they didn’t want him…but his usage with Counsell as manager was pretty sad. Unless they are hoping some team ends up wanting him as a backup option at DH/1B/2B if they can’t find better by March.

I just for some reason doubt they would offer him arbitration unless they felt they would actually want him in some form. Unlike Wong/Renfroe, he isn’t exactly that intriguing or valuable in a trade.

The Brewers should just give the poor guy a fresh start with a rebuilding team who will give him consistent playing time.  The back and forth between AAA and MLB and the very sporadic playing time isn't doing him any good.

I think Keston can be useful and have a role on the team. He needs to be used in a proper way to succeed however and that was not done in 2022.

1 minute ago, wallus said:

I think Keston can be useful and have a role on the team. He needs to be used in a proper way to succeed however and that was not done in 2022.

If we are versatile enough, he is a decent bench bay fill-in guy.

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hmm. I see Wil Myers signed with the Reds for a $7.5m base with incentives. Yet another bat the Brewers could have used... editing the piece to now mention Longoria, one of the only names left that interests me even a little bit.

Yeah the list of even remotely interesting free agents is almost down to none for me. Maybe a couple of bullpen arms.

I'll always contend that Keston is a victim of the launch-angle craze.  In college and coming up, he was a line drive machine.  Screaming missiles, gap to gap.  A doubles hitter, not a home run hitter.  Changing his swing to try to increase his launch angle is to blame for his struggles more than anything.  

This is what I worry about with things like launch angle. It can screw up a potentially valuable player. Yeah, Hiura was homeless defensively, but if it hadn't been for the launch-angle junk, he might have been the answer at DH.

He had his BABIP go up to .355 as opposed to .270 ish... I wonder if that was luck or maybe he went back somewhat to his line-drive type, his EV and hard hit percentages were his best since 2019. Big issue is strikeouts, and if he can put more balls in play...

26 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

This is what I worry about with things like launch angle. It can screw up a potentially valuable player. Yeah, Hiura was homeless defensively, but if it hadn't been for the launch-angle junk, he might have been the answer at DH.

He had his BABIP go up to .355 as opposed to .270 ish... I wonder if that was luck or maybe he went back somewhat to his line-drive type, his EV and hard hit percentages were his best since 2019. Big issue is strikeouts, and if he can put more balls in play...

Exit velocity is another.  Esteury Ruiz has a low exit velocity, so he has no future as a hitter.  But his career SLG in the minors (.457) is more than 40 points higher than William Contreras (.413).  And that doesn't include all the "single and steal second" doubles that he's capable of.

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think he has a role on the team. I doubt he makes it to Spring Training as a Brewer.

I hope you are correct … I believe it is in the best interest of both parties. I know I’m tired of seeing him strike out. His defense is horrid. An occasional breath-taking HR doesn’t offset his many deficiencies. Time for a change - hopefully a “change of scenery” type trade. 

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hmm. I see Wil Myers signed with the Reds for a $7.5m base with incentives. Yet another bat the Brewers could have used... editing the piece to now mention Longoria, one of the only names left that interests me even a little bit.

I sighed a huge sigh of frustration when I saw both the Drury & Myers #’s … both are contracts that would have fit nicely on this team & would have been reason to cheer. I’m quite under-impressed with the current roster. I hope Hiura is not in FO plans for 2023. 

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers were in on Myers around that price range. May have just been a case of picking the Reds because there is a clearer path to playing time.

I would have loved Myers on this team … quite disappointed that we lost out on him & Drury (assuming we were bidding on one or the other)

I fear we will have to trade away some top-level talent to secure a solid RH bat

I know there are a few months before Spring Training … but we need more offense than is currently on the 40-man roster

52 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

This is what I worry about with things like launch angle. It can screw up a potentially valuable player. Yeah, Hiura was homeless defensively, but if it hadn't been for the launch-angle junk, he might have been the answer at DH.

He had his BABIP go up to .355 as opposed to .270 ish... I wonder if that was luck or maybe he went back somewhat to his line-drive type, his EV and hard hit percentages were his best since 2019. Big issue is strikeouts, and if he can put more balls in play...

He’s had plenty of opportunities & he’s been terrible for three years … it appears 2019 was the exception … what we’ve seen since is the norm … time for a change in scenery 

46 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's certainly possible but it'd be hard to see Myers choose the Reds over the Brewers given the level of competition of each club and the fact it's likely he's flipped to a team he doesn't choose in July.

But who knows what drives any individual free agent?

Maybe the Reds guaranteed more playing time than us?

The launch angle comments may be valid, the most disturbing thing is the swings and misses for him have been in the strike zone and for a major leaguer that is rare.

In another universe, Hiura would've been drafted by a bad team; he'd have been allowed to start everyday at 1B/DH, and been a hot commodity at the trade deadline for a contending team needing a stick.

I love him, but the gaping holes in his player profile prevent me from being able to laud his inclusion in an everyday lineup for a contender.

I also feel like he's the baseball equivalent of a "volume scorer" in basketball... he needs regular ABs to prove his worth.

9 hours ago, Lou Buell said:

The launch angle comments may be valid, the most disturbing thing is the swings and misses for him have been in the strike zone and for a major leaguer that is rare.

Just to reiterate this point, Keston had the 4th worst Zone Contact % of any hitter with over 150PA's according to Fangraphs.

 

8 minutes ago, Baldkin said:

Just to reiterate this point, Keston had the 4th worst Zone Contact % of any hitter with over 150PA's according to Fangraphs.

 

Just above Brett Phillips and just below Joey Gallo. Not good company to keep. Especially if you walk as infrequently as Keston does. 

On 12/22/2022 at 2:22 PM, edfunderburk said:

He’s had plenty of opportunities & he’s been terrible for three years … it appears 2019 was the exception … what we’ve seen since is the norm … time for a change in scenery 

Better OPS than Adames in 2022… our star #2 hitter who we could not afford having out of that #2 spot.

And this is with jerking Hiura around positions, spot batting for large stretches against lefties instead of righties whom he destroyed last year, and then put up and down from AAA, and having desserts of playing time sitting for 4 or 5 days and getting a spot start or pinch hit. Total and complete mismanagement so Cutch can hit and underachieve pretty much all year. Just playing him regularly last year, batting him low in lineup as a DH, giving him at bats instead of Cutch gets us in the playoffs imho.

1 minute ago, rickh150 said:

Just playing him regularly last year, batting him low in lineup as a DH, giving him at bats instead of Cutch gets us in the playoffs imho.

Doubtful as Hiura had short period where he was good and then was basically garbage.  In September Hiura played in 4 less games than McCutchen and only put up a 41 wRC+ while McCutchen put up a 98 wRC+.

Hiura's splits by month:

There is a pattern here he has an unsustainable BABIP which when it crashed his results started to come crashing back down.  A .400 and .500 BABIP are not sustainable.  Hiura is probably more of a .750-.800 OPS player than he is a .900+ OPS player. 

As for Hiura's future it is not with the Brewers.  I fully expect him to be traded and he won't be on the Brewers OD roster. 

23 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Better OPS than Adames in 2022… our star #2 hitter who we could not afford having out of that #2 spot.

And this is with jerking Hiura around positions, spot batting for large stretches against lefties instead of righties whom he destroyed last year, and then put up and down from AAA, and having desserts of playing time sitting for 4 or 5 days and getting a spot start or pinch hit. Total and complete mismanagement so Cutch can hit and underachieve pretty much all year. Just playing him regularly last year, batting him low in lineup as a DH, giving him at bats instead of Cutch gets us in the playoffs imho.

 

The reason Hiura is jerked around at positions is because he's a terrible fielder....I disagree with how stubborn the team was in batting Cutch cleanup against RHP, but I don't think it was the difference in us missing the postseason. We missed the playoffs because of injuries and underperformance in our pitching, as well as a downturn in our fielding. 

I think it's best for both parties to separate.

I wish he had gotten 20+ more of McCutchen's starts vs. RH starters. We'd have a good sense of his value. But he was misused in 2022.

I think we're waiting for some team to offer an A-ball lottery ticket for him. Maybe if he's hitting .400 in S.T. and some team has an injury, we might get more.