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Despite injuries to top-of-the-rotation starters Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, the Brewers starting staff once again bolstered the team amid a season where the bullpen struggled at times, especially after ace closer Josh Hader was dealt to the Padres. The Brewers' top seven starters from 2022 remain with the team as of mid-December. Let's take a look at the projections and break things down.
| Name | Team | GS | G | IP | W | L | QS | SV | HLD | H | ER | HR | SO | BB | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR | RA9-WAR | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | MIL | 32 | 32 | 197.0 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 69 | 21 | 239 | 55 | 1.10 | 10.92 | 2.51 | 3.15 | 3.03 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 999.0 |
| Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 31 | 31 | 182.0 | 12 | 10 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 70 | 23 | 209 | 51 | 1.13 | 10.29 | 2.50 | 3.47 | 3.39 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 999.0 |
| Aaron Ashby | MIL | 21 | 37 | 127.0 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 110 | 48 | 12 | 138 | 53 | 1.28 | 9.78 | 3.76 | 3.43 | 3.51 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 999.0 |
| Freddy Peralta | MIL | 26 | 26 | 138.0 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 61 | 19 | 150 | 52 | 1.24 | 9.80 | 3.41 | 3.99 | 4.04 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 999.0 |
| Eric Lauer | MIL | 28 | 28 | 156.0 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 74 | 24 | 150 | 59 | 1.32 | 8.69 | 3.39 | 4.30 | 4.42 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 999.0 |
| Adrian Houser | MIL | 13 | 61 | 117.0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 122 | 58 | 14 | 88 | 47 | 1.44 | 6.76 | 3.62 | 4.46 | 4.49 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 999.0 |
| Jason Alexander | MIL | 5 | 43 | 65.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 70 | 32 | 8 | 46 | 21 | 1.39 | 6.32 | 2.90 | 4.40 | 4.47 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 999.0 |
| Robert Gasser | MIL | 2 | 2 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 1.38 | 7.69 | 3.53 | 4.52 | 4.71 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 999.0 |
| Ethan Small | MIL | 3 | 37 | 52.0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 49 | 25 | 7 | 48 | 25 | 1.42 | 8.35 | 4.40 | 4.33 | 4.61 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 999. |
Corbin Burnes was once again the unquestioned ace of the staff; after winning the National League Cy Young in 2021, he followed up in 2022 by leading the senior circuit with 243 strikeouts while sporting a 2.94 E.R.A, 3.14 FIP, to go along with his 12-8 record, while finishing seventh in the Cy Young voting. The Brewers are getting close to a point where they'll have to decide about his near-term future in Milwaukee, but for 2023, they can ride it out and hold onto Burnes if they're in or close to a playoff spot. General Manager Matt Arnold's hand isn't forced just yet, but trading Burnes could become a reality if the Brewers fade from playoff contention by mid-summer. Steamer projections have solid confidence in a follow-up season from Burnes, with an ERA just a shade over three and projecting almost 240 strikeouts.
Brandon Woodruff played a fine second fiddle to Burnes in 2022, going 13-4 with a 3.05 ERA (3.08 FIP) along with 190 strikeouts in just 153 1/3 innings pitched. Woodruff spent a few weeks on the disabled list in June and returned strong, giving up two or fewer earned runs in nine of his next 11 starts. After a five earned run hiccup against the Diamondbacks, he finished out September by going six or more innings and allowing two or fewer runs in six straight starts. A healthy Woodruff looks like a safe bet to be a quality number two again in 2023, with Steamer projections of a 3.43 E.R.A and 209 strikeouts. Like Burnes, however, the Brewers have some tough decisions about Woody's future in Milwaukee, regarding whether they will trade, keep, or even try to extend him.
Freddy Peralta pitched well to start the year but spent a fair amount of time on the disabled list. Steamer projections have Peralta notched at 26 starts, 138 innings pitched, and a 3.99 ERA and 2.0 WAR. Peralta has pitched well when healthy and, entering his age 27 season, should be reaching his peak, so those numbers seem on the conservative side, but Peralta has to get and stay healthy. Peralta was incredible in 2021, striking out nearly 200 batters and posting an ERA under three in 27 starts, so there is potential to be a dominant mid-rotation pitcher. Peralta's strikeout rate fell off quite a bit in 2022, which may be concerning, so it'll be something to watch and see where that trends in 2023. Steamer doesn't project much more of a falloff in that category, but it's still concerning to see Peralta regress in that area.
Steamer projections look at Aaron Ashby as a pitcher who will take a step forward this season. Ashby struggled at times last year but also suffered from some extreme bad luck.
| Season | Team | Level | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% | SIERA | xFIP- | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | MIL | R | 2.00 | 22.4% | 51.7% | 25.9% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 39.7% | 20.7% | 39.7% | 4.89 | |||||||
| 2018 | MIL | A | 2.13 | 23.5% | 52.0% | 24.5% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 37.4% | 26.3% | 36.4% | 2.25 | |||||||
| 2019 | MIL | A | 1.43 | 16.8% | 49.0% | 34.2% | 15.7% | 7.8% | 38.2% | 22.8% | 39.0% | 3.13 | |||||||
| 2019 | MIL | A+ | 1.52 | 19.3% | 48.6% | 32.0% | 36.2% | 1.7% | 46.0% | 20.3% | 33.7% | 4.10 | |||||||
| 2021 | MIL | AAA | 5.69 | 21.3% | 66.9% | 11.8% | 6.3% | 25.0% | 44.8% | 20.3% | 35.0% | 2.26 | |||||||
| 2021 | MIL | MLB | 2.45 | 13.8% | 61.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 10.2% | 100.0% | 42.0% | 30.9% | 27.2% | 18.5% | 55.6% | 25.9% | 3.18 | 72 | 3.05 |
| 2022 | MIL | MLB | 2.17 | 16.9% | 56.9% | 26.2% | 6.6% | 19.7% | 12.7% | 33.3% | 40.5% | 34.8% | 24.7% | 17.9% | 54.7% | 27.4% | 3.48 | 83 | 3.29 |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 2.23 | 16.2% | 57.8% | 25.9% | 5.2% | 19.8% | 12.1% | 42.9% | 40.8% | 34.0% | 25.2% | 18.0% | 54.9% | 27.1% | 3.41 | 80 |
3.24 |
Ashby has an above-average strikeout rate for a starter (10.6 per 9 innings), has a solid groundball-to-flyball ratio, and doesn't allow much hard contact. The crazy outlier in his data set is that a whopping 19.7% of flyballs hit off of Ashby went for home runs in 2022. That's almost double the major league average, and probably (hopefully) an anomaly, and something that reverts to the mean in the future. Ashby's ERA this past season was 4.44, his FIP (fielding independent pitching) was 4.06, and his xFIP (fielding independent pitching normalized for an average home run rate) was 3.29. Ashby's a good pitcher. There are control issues with the walks but there was also a bit of bad luck. Here's to a big bounce back in 2023 and Steamer appears to agree.
Eric Lauer started hot for the Brewers in 2022. He was so good through early June that he was referred to as the Brewers' "fourth ace," deservedly so. As all good things must, his hot streak ended, and Lauer returned to earth. He still put together a solid campaign, winning 11 games against seven losses with a 3.69 ERA while striking out a batter per inning. Lauer has been talked about as a trade chip and asset that could bring some much-needed hitting talent to Milwaukee. Still, until one of the younger pitchers like Ashby, Gasser, or Small forces Lauer out of the picture, it's tough to see how a number four guy with Lauer's stuff will be removed from the rotation. Eventually, he may price himself out of the Brewers' plans but for now, having a pitcher at the bottom of the rotation with Lauer's makeup is a luxury most baseball teams do not enjoy. Steamer projects a relatively large jump in ERA for Lauer this coming season, despite putting up a 3.19 and 3.69 ERA each of the previous two seasons. It'll be interesting to see how Lauer performs this coming year after having a stellar start to the season, followed by inconsistent ball down the stretch.
Adrian Houser could be the odd man if the Brewers go with a five-man rotation. Houser's ERA jumped by a full one and a half runs to 4.73, while his FIP actually dropped from 4.33 to 4.21. Steamer projects him to be adequately mediocre again in 2023. Houser isn't a bad guy to have around as a long bullpen piece or a starter to run through the rotation four or five times if someone hits the disabled list for a few weeks, but it seems like the league has seen his stuff enough times to know what he has to offer. Houser may still have some trade value for a team looking for a back-end starter, so like Lauer, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the off-season plays out with a few of these players.
The rest of the starter depth is about what you'll expect out of number seven starter material. Jason Alexander (no, not THAT Jason Alexander), a rookie at age 29, had a few successful weeks filling in for injured starters, and then when the league had some looks at him, it became clear why he was a rookie at age 29. Still, he was serviceable for a short time and may fill that emergency starter role again in 2023.
Neither Ethan Small nor Robert Gasser figures to play any significant role in the rotation in 2023, but Steamer has each of them making a few starts. Small profiles as more of a reliever at this point, but the Brewers have made no indication yet that they aren't going to try to have him stick at starter. If things go wildly out of control on the injury front, we could see Small or Gasser making a start or two or possibly see a September call-up, but aside from that, I wouldn't figure to see either of these prospects see significant time in the rotation.
So, what do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Based on what we see today, the Brewers will "run it back" with the same rotation. Is that the right approach? Do the Steamer projections look about right to you? How does the rotation stack up? Let us know in the comment section!
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