Steamer's Projections of the Brewers Bullpen

1 hour ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

The Brewers' bullpen had its share of ups and downs in 2022. With the midseason trade of closer Josh Hader, the entire group saw a change in roles, and the 2023 bullpen will look a bit different. We'll take a look at the Steamer projections and more today.

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The Brewer bullpen took on a new look at the trade deadline in July of 2022 when All-Star closer and fan favorite Josh Hader was sent to the Padres for a package of players, including Padres closer Taylor Rogers. The Brewers pen struggled at times down the stretch, with Rogers never regaining his previous form and Matt Bush (acquired from the Texas Rangers) giving up six home runs in only 23 innings pitched. 

The Brewer relief corps still had its share of bright spots in 2022. Devin Williams was a dominant force after a rocky first month, posting an ERA of 1.93 and striking out 96 in just 60 2/3 innings. Hoby Milner became a useful middle-inning reliever and should figure into the Brewers' plans again in 2023. Peter Strzelecki, a 27-year-old rookie, pitched well in limited use, with an ERA under three and punching out just over ten batters per nine innings pitched.

Looking ahead, however, the Brewers' pen is going to have a very different look next year. Gone (obviously) is Hader, as are Taylor Rogers. Brad Boxberger, Brent Suter, and Trevor Gott who have signed free-agent contracts elsewhere. As we stand near the end of December, what does this leave the Brewers relief corps looking like? And what do the Steamer projections think of the arms they currently have?

Name	Team	GS	G	IP	W	L	QS	SV	HLD	H	ER	HR	SO	BB	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9-WAR	ADP
Devin Williams	MIL	0	65	65.0	4	3	0	28	2	49	22	6	84	29	1.20	11.69	4.07	3.12	3.20	0.8	0.9	999.0
Matt Bush	MIL	0	63	63.0	3	3	0	2	12	52	25	8	77	23	1.19	10.93	3.22	3.53	3.46	0.6	0.6	999.0
Jake Cousins	MIL	0	58	58.0	3	3	0	0	10	49	24	7	67	26	1.29	10.34	4.07	3.72	3.80	0.3	0.4	999.0
Hoby Milner	MIL	0	62	62.0	3	3	0	1	12	60	27	8	58	19	1.27	8.48	2.70	3.88	3.96	0.2	0.3	999.0
Joel Payamps	MIL	0	54	54.0	3	3	0	0	6	53	25	7	46	18	1.31	7.72	3.03	4.11	4.23	0.2	0.1	999.0
Peter Strzelecki	MIL	0	63	63.0	3	3	0	1	14	56	28	8	67	25	1.29	9.55	3.60	4.03	4.07	0.1	0.3	999.0
Jason Alexander	MIL	5	43	65.0	3	4	2	0	1	70	32	8	46	21	1.39	6.32	2.90	4.40	4.47	0.1	0.1	999.0
Ethan Small	MIL	3	37	52.0	3	3	1	0	1	49	25	7	48	25	1.42	8.35	4.40	4.33	4.61	0.0	0.2	999.0
Janson Junk	MIL	2	14	21.0	1	1	1	0	1	21	10	3	18	6	1.29	7.55	2.54	4.39	4.44	0.0	0.1	999.0
Elvis Peguero	MIL	0	20	20.0	1	1	0	0	1	19	9	2	18	8	1.34	8.09	3.38	4.01	4.08	0.0	0.0	999.0

As always, it's important to remember that these projections are middle-ground models, 

Devin Williams, "The Last Airbender," as affectionately named by fans, looks to slot into the closer role, as he did down the stretch in 2022. While understanding how projections work, I'm a bit surprised at the projected K/9 rate, as he's been at 14.5/9 and 14.2/9 each of the previous two seasons. It's unlikely the Brewers will spend whatever budget they have left on a closer, so it's a solid bet that Williams takes this role. Despite the relative volatility of relievers, I think the Brewers have seen enough dominance from Williams to hand him the role and expect results.

Hoby Milner pitched well for the first half of 2022 but struggled a bit down the stretch. A high 80's sidearm lefty, Milner had struggled in the majors before last year but found success on the Brewers' staff. Steamer's projections for Milner see a return to form, but it remains to be seen if Milner's season was marred by wearing down or if the league has seen his offerings enough not to be fooled by his sidearm delivery.

Steamer's projections for Matt Bush look solid enough, and if he can punch out 10.9/9ip and post an ERA in the mid three's, he could vie for the seventh or eighth-inning role. He'll need to get the home runs under control, as he gave up eleven in under 60 innings between Texas and Milwaukee. 

Jake Cousins has been very good for the Brewers when he's healthy but comes into 2023 with less than 50 major league innings under his belt. Steamer projects him conservatively for an ERA just under four but also projects 58 innings pitched. If Cousins can stay on the field and pitch well, he may also contend for a late-inning role. 

Newly acquired Joel Payamps should figure strongly into the mix in a middle-inning role. Payamps has been effective in the previous two seasons as a heavy ground ball pitcher, striking out less than seven per nine but having an over 2-1 ground ball to fly out ratio. Steamer projects Payamps to take a bit of a jump in his strikeout rate but conservatively projects him to have an ERA over four this season. I don't know if Steamer projections are taking the ban on the shift into account, but that definitely will hurt groundball pitchers like Payamps. 

Peter Strzelecki was brought up to the big club in June and pitched effectively out of the pen for the Crew, pinning down an ERA of 2.83 and striking out ten per nine innings. Strzelecki should be in the club's bullpen blueprint for 2023. Steamer projects him for an ERA just a shade over four while maintaining his strikeout rate. Depending on how he continues to develop, he could slot into a long or middle-inning role. 

There are other players, of course, and the Brewers will likely end up with fifteen or more players contributing in the pen. These are the guys they have now who are the most prominent contributors. As it stands, one of the more pressing needs for the Brewers for the rest of the off-season is a front-end bullpen piece. Aside from Devin Williams, there appear to be only a few who project to be dominating, a shut-down reliever who can reliably nail down a late-inning role. The Brewers' bullpens recently have had fairly well-defined roles, with Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brad Boxberger handling those duties. 

Despite these projections being "regression to the mean," nobody here stands out (and I even feel that Williams' projection is overly conservative). But it may be that someone like Cousins or Strzelecki takes a step forward and becomes that next dominant eighth-inning reliever that Williams did in 2020. 

What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the bullpen ready to tackle 2023? How do the Steamer projections look? How do you think the roles will shake out in the coming season? Let us know in the comment section!

 

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Yeah, the projection on Devin Williams is way too conservative. It’s been three straight seasons of top 5/3 relief work from him. I’m actually really glad that he’s pitching in the WBC this spring as he’s started slow the last two years before going on to dominate the rest of the season. Hopefully, that experience will enable him to start faster from the closer role.

I still think we’re a set-up man short of having a great bullpen. I like Bush/Strzlecki a lot better in the seventh inning then in the eighth. Unfortunately, no one left on the FA market who could fit in that role, with the possible exception of Chafin.

Look out for Abner Uribe. I could see him having a 2020 Devin Williams-style breakout if the control gains he showed in the AFL are for real.

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, the projection on Devin Williams is way too conservative. It’s been three straight seasons of top 5/3 relief work from him. I’m actually really glad that he’s pitching in the WBC this spring as he’s started slow the last two years before going on to dominate the rest of the season. Hopefully, that experience will enable him to start faster from the closer role.

I still think we’re a set-up man short of having a great bullpen. I like Bush/Strzlecki a lot better in the seventh inning then in the eighth. Unfortunately, no one left on the FA market who could fit in that role, with the possible exception of Chafin.

Look out for Abner Uribe. I could see him having a 2020 Devin Williams-style breakout if the control gains he showed in the AFL are for real.

I think we already have a great bullpen without the veteran set-up man like a Chafin, which I just don’t see the team spending the money to sign.

Williams-Bush-Milner-Strezelecki should be set. With an enormous number of legit potentials from among Cousins-Topa-Peguero-Guerra-Varland-Miller-Uribe-Robinson-Payamps-Middendorf.

Then we have potential multi-inning arms in Small-Junk and hopefully Houser (if we acquire another starter) and later in the year, Gasser.

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

I think we already have a great bullpen without the veteran set-up man like a Chafin, which I just don’t see the team spending the money to sign.

Williams-Bush-Milner-Strezelecki should be set. With an enormous number of legit potentials from among Cousins-Topa-Peguero-Guerra-Varland-Miller-Uribe-Robinson-Payamps-Middendorf.

Then we have potential multi-inning arms in Small-Junk and hopefully Houser (if we acquire another starter) and later in the year, Gasser.

 

Bullpens are weird, but this is the hole right now...IMO. 

Uribe could certainly come in and just gain confidence and become a stud. That's hardly unusual. He could be the closer by the end of this year. 
Our #7 Prospect(per fangraphs)
 

Quote

At instructs and in the AFL he sat 98-101 mph with an upper-80s power slider, which has ridiculous, curveball-like depth at 87-89 mph. He will peak in the 103-104 range on occasion. His delivery isn’t especially violent for someone who routinely sits in the mid-90s and above, which creates optimism that the strike-throwing progression is for real. Uribe is cut from late-inning cloth, brings a Papelbonesque edge to the mound and has big, bombastic energy in the dugout. There’s definitely risk of regression here, and perhaps Uribe will have stretches (he had a few terrible late-November appearances in LIDOM) where he’s fighting himself like a right-handed José Alvarado. But if things have actually clicked (which is how he is evaluated here), then Uribe is going to be a part of the Brewers’ late-inning bullpen mix very soon.

Justin Topa-70 grade FB, 60 grade slider;
Struggles staying healthy have been a problem, but he's also got the stuff to be a late inning reliever. 

Two guys who were position prospects who moved to the mound, the later after being a top ~50 prospect.
Lucas Ecerg...less likely he could become a late inning man, but pitchers with his stuff can figure it out quickly(which is a common theme here and it only takes 1 or 2 to do so the pen looks entirely different).

Javy Guerra can hit 100 and had the stuff to be a late inning reliever. High spin rates, he was dominant last year in AAA.
He was a top 50 prospect at a position player, but also has the stuff to be a SU man and a closer. 

Justin Yeager, part of the...robbery that was the Contreras trade throws in the upper 95-98(+2MPH) having added velocity last year per scouting reports, he's throwing his slider in the 87-90 up 3 MPH...and apparently a high spin rate, but he nibbles too much. 

Cam Robinson, sits mid 90s, his FB has a 60 grade, two other above average pitchers(potentially) and he had 63% ground ball rate. 

Gus Varland was apparently hitting 98 when he moved to the BP. Exceptionally unlucky last year with a .374 BABIP against him. Good strikeout rate and was pitching well in a relievers role. 

Quote

Varland, like most great pitchers, centers everything around his fastball and when he throws it to the “glove side” corner it looks like a ball to lefties, then “hops” back over the plate due to the pitches “riding effect”. In other words, when a left handed hitter has to commit to whether to swing at this pitch or not, it appears as if the pitch is going to sink down and out of the zone.  But, because of the high spin rate of the pitch, it doesn’t sink, and thus gives the “riding” effect and stays in the zone.  This pitch, combined with the “cutter” Varland is developing should give him the ability to get left handed hitters out. 

Ethan Small-Apparently hits 96 in shorter stints? I don't know, haven't seen it, but he's got a 70 grade change, struggled badly last year with his command as he was nibbling too much, but his fastball is deceptive and he's had a good curve in the past. He wouldn't be my pick, but he could certainly play a role in a as multi-inning reliever. Or hell, if he's ACTUALLY touching 96 in shorter stints, he could be an effective 7th inning man depending on match-ups?

These are just some of the pitchers(the most likely, but still, only some) who could find themselves pitching in the late innings of playoff games or contributing in some significant way...or they never make the 26 and are marginal AAA relievers. 

That's in addition to all the pitchers already listed. 

If feels like good bullpens come together through a couple anchors and then trial and error. We lost a big anchor next year...so it's sure be nice if between Williams, Bush, Uribe, Cousins, we could get a couple of anchors. 

The Brewers have gone back to their strategy of "throwing crap at the wall and seeing what sticks," to build a bullpen. "Crap" basically means guys who haven't established themselves as quality ML pitchers, but have something going for them that suggests they might.
It has worked in the past (notably when we weren't predicted to compete for the playoffs), but I really wish they acquired one established late-inning guy. A guy who can be closer 1b, or at least push Bush and Strzelecki down the hierarchy.

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Bullpens are weird, but this is the hole right now...IMO. 

Uribe could certainly come in and just gain confidence and become a stud. That's hardly unusual. He could be the closer by the end of this year. 
Our #7 Prospect(per fangraphs)
 

Justin Topa-70 grade FB, 60 grade slider;
Struggles staying healthy have been a problem, but he's also got the stuff to be a late inning reliever. 

Two guys who were position prospects who moved to the mound, the later after being a top ~50 prospect.
Lucas Ecerg...less likely he could become a late inning man, but pitchers with his stuff can figure it out quickly(which is a common theme here and it only takes 1 or 2 to do so the pen looks entirely different).

Javy Guerra can hit 100 and had the stuff to be a late inning reliever. High spin rates, he was dominant last year in AAA.
He was a top 50 prospect at a position player, but also has the stuff to be a SU man and a closer. 

Justin Yeager, part of the...robbery that was the Contreras trade throws in the upper 95-98(+2MPH) having added velocity last year per scouting reports, he's throwing his slider in the 87-90 up 3 MPH...and apparently a high spin rate, but he nibbles too much. 

Cam Robinson, sits mid 90s, his FB has a 60 grade, two other above average pitchers(potentially) and he had 63% ground ball rate. 

Gus Varland was apparently hitting 98 when he moved to the BP. Exceptionally unlucky last year with a .374 BABIP against him. Good strikeout rate and was pitching well in a relievers role. 

Ethan Small-Apparently hits 96 in shorter stints? I don't know, haven't seen it, but he's got a 70 grade change, struggled badly last year with his command as he was nibbling too much, but his fastball is deceptive and he's had a good curve in the past. He wouldn't be my pick, but he could certainly play a role in a as multi-inning reliever. Or hell, if he's ACTUALLY touching 96 in shorter stints, he could be an effective 7th inning man depending on match-ups?

 

These are just some of the pitchers(the most likely, but still, only some) who could find themselves pitching in the late innings of playoff games or contributing in some significant way...or they never make the 26 and are marginal AAA relievers. 

That's in addition to all the pitchers already listed. 

 

If feels like good bullpens come together through a couple anchors and then trial and error. We lost a big anchor next year...so it's sure be nice if between Williams, Bush, Uribe, Cousins, we could get a couple of anchors. 

 

Don’t forget Elvis Peguero. Big-time stuff. If the winter-leagues are any indication of what’s ahead — 16.2 innings 12H with only 1 walk and 23K’s, we could see quite the breakout from him if that command holds.

incredibly disappointing final outing from Uribe in his final WL outing. Couldn’t get near the plate before he was removed from the game. Hopefully just a blip with losing his release point, but not a good way to end the year for him.

Hopefully another year post flexor surgery helps Topa get back closer to his pre-injury velo, which is down 2-3 mph from his peak 2020.

But even if the team can’t get much this season from Topa or Uribe, they have enough arms stabled to put together a dynamic bullpen imo.

20 hours ago, Robocaller said:

The Brewers have gone back to their strategy of "throwing crap at the wall and seeing what sticks," to build a bullpen. "Crap" basically means guys who haven't established themselves as quality ML pitchers, but have something going for them that suggests they might.
It has worked in the past (notably when we weren't predicted to compete for the playoffs), but I really wish they acquired one established late-inning guy. A guy who can be closer 1b, or at least push Bush and Strzelecki down the hierarchy.

In fairness, most of the time when they've done this, it hasn't worked out. 

But with reports that the Brewers are willing to trade an OFer for Pitching, it made more sense it'd be for a young, controllable reliever. Felix Bautista would look SO good in this pen...unlikely as that may be. 

16 hours ago, SF70 said:

Don’t forget Elvis Peguero. Big-time stuff. If the winter-leagues are any indication of what’s ahead — 16.2 innings 12H with only 1 walk and 23K’s, we could see quite the breakout from him if that command holds.

incredibly disappointing final outing from Uribe in his final WL outing. Couldn’t get near the plate before he was removed from the game. Hopefully just a blip with losing his release point, but not a good way to end the year for him.

Hopefully another year post flexor surgery helps Topa get back closer to his pre-injury velo, which is down 2-3 mph from his peak 2020.

But even if the team can’t get much this season from Topa or Uribe, they have enough arms stabled to put together a dynamic bullpen imo.

Good call. 60 FB, 60 SL. There are just SO many guys who could potentially break out...it's impossible to guess who actually will. 

But he's definitely one. So is Ashby. Maybe they make him a multi-inning reliever?

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

So is Ashby. Maybe they make him a multi-inning reliever?

I really hope they haven't given up on him as a starter, because his stuff is filthy. If they have, they need to acquire another starter; maybe a FA from the trash heap.

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I really hope they haven't given up on him as a starter, because his stuff is filthy. If they have, they need to acquire another starter; maybe a FA from the trash heap.

I'm not saying give up on him as a starter. I'm just suggesting he could be used in the Hader role in the short term. 

We have him for 7 more years if we want him...wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to use him in 2-3 inning stints a couple times a week. I'm thinking when Peralta starts to begin with, but you wouldn't be tied to that. 

He clearly has elite, true ace type stuff, so I wouldn't think they'd be giving up on him as a starter long term. But if you have the big 3, Lauer, Houser, maybe Gasser/Small and you bring in another starter or someone like Knarr gets called up?

It's just one idea. I don't think anyone can really guess what this pen is going to look like in Sept. There is SUCH an enormous range of potential outcomes, it'd be foolish to try and guess. 

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

I'm not saying give up on him as a starter. I'm just suggesting he could be used in the Hader role in the short term. 

We have him for 7 more years if we want him...wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to use him in 2-3 inning stints a couple times a week. I'm thinking when Peralta starts to begin with, but you wouldn't be tied to that. 

 

He clearly has elite, true ace type stuff, so I wouldn't think they'd be giving up on him as a starter long term. But if you have the big 3, Lauer, Houser, maybe Gasser/Small and you bring in another starter or someone like Knarr gets called up?

 

It's just one idea. I don't think anyone can really guess what this pen is going to look like in Sept. There is SUCH an enormous range of potential outcomes, it'd be foolish to try and guess. 

Agree on the pen. The second-half of the season pen could have starter arms like Gasser and Small pitching out of it, or even Houser if they sign another starter this offseason.

I can’t ever remember the team having the numbers of legit bullpen options that they have right now. Tremendous job by the FO in this accumulation of arms.

I think the team will continue to start Ashby since he is a starter with 3 plus pitches of his 4/5 overall. Command, especially of his 2-seam, is all that’s keeping him from consistent dominance and being a TOR starter for this team. As they say starters development isn’t linear, and can take multiples of years. He needs innings.