Steamer's Projections of Brewers Position Players

While Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold hasn't made any splashy moves such as inking any of the decade-plus, 300-million dollar signings, he has maneuvered trades to bring Jesse Winker and William Contreras to Milwaukee. Contreras is a young first-time all-star with legitimate 30 home run potential, and Winker is a candidate for a solid bounce-back campaign after an injury-marred 2022 season in Seattle. Arnold also brought in a pair of utility infielders, Abraham Toro and Owen Miller, possibly to compete for the Jace Peterson super-utility role or simply as extra depth. More moves may be made, and Luis Urias may fill the super-sub role in the future.

Everyone has their preferred projection system, and each one uses different algorithms or methods to reach the numbers you see on the screen when you make your fantasy draft or browse the various sites. Another important distinction (a big distinction) is the difference between projections and predictions. Most of these systems are not predictions but simply mathematical models based on the previous season's data, age, and other factors. That being said, let's dig in!

I'm going to use Steamer today. For one, it's available, and ZiPS currently isn't for the Brewers 2023 yet, and two, Steamer does a much better job of projecting playing time than ZiPS (and some other systems) does. So how does Steamer think the Brewers 2023 positional group stacks up? (per FanGraphs)

Outfield
The Brewers shipped out slugging right fielder Hunter Renfroe and brought in Jesse Winker. Winker profiles almost exclusively as a DH due to his defense, but the Brewers ideally would use Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura (if he remains with the club) in that role often as well. Right now, the outfield lines up with the bulk of playing time going to Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyrone Taylor. Steamer projects Mitchell for a 1.7 WAR and a .702 OPS, but it wouldn't be outrageous for a prospect to struggle his second time around the league. Mitchell hit well in his late-season call-up in 2022, but that's a sample of less than 100 plate appearances and his strikeout rate was over 40% in those limited chances. 

While Tyrone Taylor got the lion's share of playing time in center field after Lorenzo Cain was released last year, he struggled with on-base percentage and is well past prospect status entering his age 29 season. With Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Joey Wiemer banging on the door, the Brewers could move Taylor to a reserve role sooner rather than later if he struggles to get on base. Christian Yelich projects for a 3.0 WAR and 21 home runs in Steamer's system, which would make most Brewer fans ecstatic. Tempering our enthusiasm, if Yelich can continue to be an on-base threat at the top of the order and set the table, he'll be providing worth as a table setter and leadoff man. Frelick's playing time depends on several factors. Notably, whether or not the Brewers acquire any other outfield pieces, whether or not Taylor struggles, and how well Frelick adjusts to big-league pitching.

Infield
There are some question marks here after dealing away Kolten Wong and Jace Peterson signing elsewhere. Rowdy Tellez returns at first base with his power bat. Despite knocking 35 home runs, Tellez hit just .219 last year with a .767 OPS. Tellez hopes to improve on that mainly by seeing a bounce back in his .215 BABiP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). Willy Adames will man shortstop again in 2023 after posting a 4.7 WAR in 2022. Adames' .298 on-base percentage last year was the lowest of his career by a wide margin, so it's arguable if he maintains his power (31 home runs), there's room to improve on the offensive side. 

The Brewers may look to hand second base to rookie Brice Turang, who broke through at Nashville in 2022 and had a .286 average and .772 OPS. Early projections from Steamer have a limited amount of confidence in his offense but the Brewers will have to be willing to let Turang grow into his game and let his defense provide his value until his bat can catch up. As of now, it looks like Luis Urias is the third baseman. Steamer projects a 3.0 WAR from Urias, which aligns with where he's been the last few years. A bit of power, a decent on base percentage, and decent defense. While the Brewers may end up going another route for third base, a 3.0 WAR projection is a safe bet.

The infield backups are Abraham Toro, Owen Miller, and Mike Brosseau. Brosseau had a solid season in partial playing time for Milwaukee last year, but the Brewers will almost certainly look at the whole group and decide what pieces make the most sense and fit. Miller played almost full-time in Cleveland last year, primarily due to injuries to other players, and wasn't particularly spectacular, but he could provide a decent backup around the diamond.

Designated Hitter
Right now, there are plenty of DH candidates, but I'll focus on Jesse Winker and Keston Hiura. I suspect there's at least some chance that Hiura will be dealt with before spring training, so this is subject to change. After a brutal campaign in 2021, Hiura bounced back quite a bit this past year and slugged fourteen home runs with a .765 OPS in part-time play. Despite that, he never seemed to get on the good side of manager Craig Counsell and earned anything more than sporadic playing time. Often his playing time came against left-handed pitching, which he's notoriously (and oddly) terrible against. Be that as it may, with reverse splits, he doesn't make a good platoon DH partner for Winker, who hits left-handed and has more typical platoon splits. It'll be interesting to see how and when Hiura is used if he's still with the team come April.

Jesse Winker was acquired in the Kolten Wong trade, and the Brewers are betting heavily on Winker having a big bounce-back season. He was terrible in Seattle in 2022. No getting around it. But in 2020 and 2021, he put up ..932 and .949 OPS numbers, respectively. His defensive prowess is best left unsaid, and if he only finds the field a handful of times, it's for the best. The DH spot will likely end up as Christian Yelich's long-term home, but for one season (Winker is a free agent after this year), Yelich can handle left field while WInker DHs. I'd be remiss if I didn't point out Winker's platoon splits. He has a career of .661 OPS vs. left-handers. The Brewers will need to find a platoon partner for him and hide that weakness. 

Catcher
The big get of the offseason so far, and what a get it was. The Brewers acquired all-star catcher William Contreras in a three-team trade for minor league outfielder Esteury Ruiz. Contreras immediately adds some much-needed right-handed pop to the lineup, and should hit somewhere in the middle of the order. Contreras has his defensive drawbacks, but the Brewers seem more than willing to live with it and hope he improves. Steamer puts Contreras at 2.2 WAR with 22 home runs. I hope that's slightly conservative.

The backup catcher is currently Victor Caratini. Caratini was doing a solid job with the backup duties to Omar Narvaez last year, providing some pop and decent defense. During the second half of the season, when he was forced to take on more regular catching duties his offensive numbers declined in August and September. Despite that, Caratini is a solid option for a backup with good defense and some decent power. 

That's where we stand in mid-December. The Brewers may make more moves, and there are plenty of free agents below the top-tier names who remain unsigned. What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? What will the lineup look like? What do you think of the first Projections that have come out? Let us know in the comments!