Should The Brewers Extend Eric Lauer?

Why? Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta have given the Brewers an excellent trio in the starting rotation for the last two years. In a very real sense, Burnes and Woodruff, arguably two of the best starters in Brewers' history, have distorted the team’s starting rotation in a positive direction. This has given the Brewers a huge edge in the last two years.

So, while Brewers fans fret over the lack of an extension for the big names, the smart play is not to try to extend Burnes and Woodruff. The Brewers could be well-served to offer an extension to Eric Lauer to solidify their rotation through this decade. In most cases, it would be crazy to give the #4 starter an extension. But the Brewers don’t have a normal situation.

The Crew currently has Freddy Peralta with team options through 2026. Aaron Ashby is also locked up, with team options taking him through 2029. If their shoulders hold up, Peralta and Ashby would still make a potent 1-2 punch in the rotation, even if they are different from the generational talent that Burnes is. However, if the Crew were to extend Eric Lauer, it could solidify their rotation through the late 2020s.

Yes, the Brewers have pitching prospects in the system, including exciting ones like Carlos Rodriguez, Jacob Misiorowski, and Stiven Cruz. But a lot of these pitchers are at the lower levels. The journey from full-season A, Advanced A, or the Arizona Complex League is long, and not all touted prospects make it or become Corbin Burnes. So, the Brewers, in need of some stability in the rotation and also needing to be cost-conscious, might want to set their extension sights on Lauer.

Part of what makes an extension workable is that there are some up-and-coming prospects in the outfield. Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer could be the starting outfielders in Game 162, with Christian Yelich as the designated hitter.

What could that extension look like? Baseball-Reference lists Kyle Freeland as the most comparable pitcher to Lauer through age 27. Freeland signed a five-year, $64.5 million extension in April 2022 that includes a $17 million option for 2027 that will vest if he pitches 160 innings in 2026. In one sense, that could be a very reasonable starting point for the Brewers and Lauer. Freeland, who pitches half the time at Coors Field, probably warranted a premium.

American Family Field does tend to be a little hitter-friendly, but that effect is often for left-handed hitters. The Brewers might want to consider dispensing with the vesting option and getting a lower AAV. The Crew also could always defer some of the money – giving Lauer long-term financial stability and easing the short-term budget crunch.

In this case, the Brewers could go six years, $72 million, giving Lauer an extra guaranteed year, and defer $12 million over 25 years. This deal would take the team through 2029, putting Lauer alongside Ashby in the rotation long-term while also offering him some significant financial security for his post-MLB life.

Extending Eric Lauer would not be as spectacular as keeping Corbin Burnes, but for the Brewers, locking down a solid starting pitcher would make a lot of sense and provide significant bang for the buck.