Series Preview: The Nationals Are Just Plain Bad

And now, Milwaukee comes to town. The Brewers feel dichotomous right now, either savvy and surgical masters of run prevention or hollow, deflated and lost. The sweep by the Phillies (in a series I incorrectly predicted would go 2-1 to the Brewers) was initiated by a highly uncharacteristic implosion by Josh Hader and was punctuated by a loss by defending Cy Young award winner Corbin Burnes. If there is any team that can right the ship for Milwaukee, it should be a team who’s wrangling with Cincinnati for the worst record in the National League.

Let’s check out the match ups. 

Friday June 10th
Milwaukee: Aaron Ashby (1-4 3.13 ERA)
Washington: Erick Fedde (3-4 4.88 ERA)
Approaching virality in Brewers circles was a clip of a disgusting two-seamer Aaron Ashby elevated in one of the strikeouts he managed in his last start against the Padres. I don’t normally succumb to the hype of a young prospect, but 60 strikeouts in 46 innings for a 24-year-old pitcher who seems to be figuring out the majors quickly, paired with the Stearns front office having developed elite pitching at an incomprehensible clip, gives that hype a whole lot of purchase.

Erick Fedde feels like a microcosm of the Nationals as a whole. He is there, playing major league baseball, and occasionally he wins but more often, he loses. In fairness to Fedde, he had an ERA of 1.95 in the month of May before requiring 29 pitches to record a drubbing by the Mets in his previous start.

Saturday June 11th 

Milwaukee: Eric Lauer (5-1 2.38 ERA)
Washington: Patrick Corbin (2-8 6.71 ERA)
While the question of Ashby’s ace-hood may be in the nascent stages of making it’s case, the question of Eric Lauer’s seems to be dissipating with every start with all signs pointing to the affirmative. With a polishing of his mechanics prior to the 2021 start, the quietest acquisition in the fairly splashy trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres and brought him here with Luis Urias, is beginning to solidify himself as the most valuable part of the entire transaction.

While the peripherals surrounding Lauer aren’t quite as sparkling as the rudimentary numbers show, a FIP of 3.69 is still an improvement from last year’s 4.04 and a world away from the 6.37 FIP he put up in the chaotic 2020 campaign. Against a flailing Nationals team, I expect this to be a much-watch show of dominance and a palate cleanser for Brewers fans still wincing over the previous couple of weeks of Brewers baseball. 

Corbin’s nightmarish 2022 is beginning to look, to this point, like a very expensive nightmare for a team that could really use a few solid trade pieces. Sure he was tolerably decent in his last start, but it was against the Reds. The $140MM contract Corbin signed in 2019 is hard to turn one's nose up considering he was excellent and they happened to win the World Series that year, but at present it seems like he’s grafted into the rotation as a grim reminder of acceptance for their flagging investments. Still, flags fly forever.

Sunday June 12th 
Milwaukee: Jason Alexander (0-0 2.25 ERA)
Washington: TBD
Difficult to prognosticate on a match-up that hasn’t been decided yet, but would it surprise you to learn that Jason Alexander is another emerging story on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers? Obviously not too much hay can be made out of two starts, but he owns a compelling narrative, plus a grateful salve for a Brewers team that has been wracked with fatigue. If he’s built on the confidence he’s deserved over his previous two strong starts, I expect him to make a statement against the flimsy Nationals. 

Prediction
Good teams beat bad teams. Good teams also go on rough stretches but then recover. It’s this logic that separates the wheat from the chaff. Yes, the exiguous Brewers offense revealed itself once more and it manifested a sweep by the Phillies, but that belies the actual offensive output. A lot of balls were hit hard, there was patience at the plate, there were actual hits. The scoreboard says dismal, but that’s missing the forest for the trees. I’m going to be bold and say that the Brewers sweep the Nationals.