Series Preview: The Mets are for Real

“That’s so Mets!” they used to say! Some series of unforced errors, epic collapses and MVP caliber players getting injured a third of the way into the season. Queens would weep and the rest of the baseball world would snicker. Cosmically ordained bad luck and worse handling seemed to follow a team with such aggression that their 2015 World Series appearance has been forgotten entirely. That isn’t the case in 2022. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers gave up 19 hits to the Nationals. An indictment by itself, but it’s symptomatic of something worse. Where the Mets can lose super stars for an extended period of time and still be meaningfully competitive, it appears at least possible that the Brewers are more “house of cards” in their structure. The brutal nineteen-game stretch that preceded this dismal June started strong, but the reasonably tired Brewers began to sputter towards its conclusion.

Since the beginning of June the Brewers have lost all but one game, and primarily against sub .500 teams. Whether this suggests the inevitable slump that all good teams face or betokens a full scale collapse is yet to be determined; but what it demands is that the Brewers show up and take this series. Anything more would warrant the sounding of alarm bells. 

And now, the match-ups.

Tuesday June 14th
Adrian Houser (3-6 3.92 ERA)
Chris Bassitt (4-4 4.35 ERA)

Adrian Houser hasn’t missed many bats yet. He got roughed up by the Phillies his last game, surrendering five runs on seven hits to a good hitting Philadelphia team. He pitched well against the Padres, but in the start before that, the now NL Central leading Cardinals took him to task in a stinging loss. Heading to Flushing and into the maw of a wood chipper offense like the Mets have built isn’tthe most exciting prospect at the moment. In order to be successful, Houser will have to keep the ball in the park and keep men off base, and with a B/9 of 3.8, a WHIP of 1.40 and a HR/9 of 0.9, it’s evident that he’ll need to approach the Mets with something new in mind. 

What started as a sparkling beginning of Chris Bassit's Mets tenure has hit a rough skid lately. Covering the last five his starts, Bassitt has been pitching to a 7.62 ERA. He’s also surrendered seven home runs. This would bode well for the Brewers if their offense shows up, but the struggle that seems to have plagued the Brewers since Christian Yelich fouled a ball off of his kneecap in Miami in 2019 feels more and more permanent with every series.  

Wednesday June 15th
Corbin Burnes (3-4 2.48 ERA)
David Peterson (3-0 3.00 ERA)

Prior to last week’s uncharacteristically mediocre performance against Philadelphia, any loss endured by Burnes was by virtue of bad luck and lack of run support. In what would be an eventual loss to punctuate a sweep by the Phils, Burnes labored through 4.1 innings and a concerning 113 pitches. If this were one of his first starts of the season it would be legitimate to express some more concern about what this might portend, but it feels fair to assume he’s still the Brewers ace and, like all mortals, is liable to experience the occasional fluke. Still, the last start’s high pitch count is a bit of a concern given the tenuous nature of play the Brewers have been languishing in the last couple of weeks. 

David Peterson’s position on the Mets has been largely at the mercy of the team’s condition. With a strong rotation factored in Peterson and his 3.00 ERA have weaved in and out of starting and relief, with his most recent outing being a win out of the pen against the Angels only Friday. While Peterson hasn’t given up too many runs, it hasn’t been by virtue of keeping runners off the base. The 1.250 WHIP is buoyed by the 4.5 BB/9. The Crew should approach Peterson with patience, let him get himself into trouble and then exploit the Mets subpar bullpen.

Thursday June 16th
Aaron Ashby (1-5 3.91 ERA)
Tylor Megill (4-2 4.50 ERA)

While Aaron Ashby’s win-loss record isn’t a fair indicator of his performances thus far, his recent starts have been atrocious. Giving up almost a run per inning in his two June starts, Ashby was beaten first by the Padres in a fairly unremarkable loss, but was rocked by the Nationals to the tune of 13 hits and six runs. Given the quality of the 2022 Nationals and Ashby’s sold pitching thus far it’s hard not to look at this as a fluke, but with a far more formidable team in the Mets up next, it will be a true test of Ashby’s mettle. 

Fresh from an IL stint, young Mets pitcher Tylor Megill was limited to 64 pitches over three and a third innings against the Angels. Megill appeared competent in his shortened start, as he has much of his sophomore career. The crafty righty might be a tough needle to thread against a struggling offense, particularly in a pitcher friendly park, but one path to a W could be the Brewers exploiting Megill’s tendency for the long ball.

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Predictions: When any team gets swept by the Phillies and lose the next series to the Nationals it’s not easy to feel comfortable about where they are at, so going up against one of the top tier teams in baseball doesn’t feel particularly great right now. My guess is that they scratch out one win against the Mets, but if they can get to their weak spot in the pen early, it could be two.