Rowdy Tellez Should Change His Approach at the Plate to Reach All-Star Levels

The conversation around plate discipline typically centers on refraining from chasing pitches outside the strike zone. If Rowdy Tellez is going to take the next step with the Brewers, though, he has to be more aggressive, especially on pitches in the zone. While there's value in working longer at-bats and seeing many pitches, it can be an overall negative to watch too many meatballs go by, missing the chance to produce damage. Before we get further into Tellez's plate discipline, let's look at the superficial stats.

Tellez owned a 10.4% walk percentage (BB%) in 2022, which was good for 31st in MLB. That marked his career-best BB%, 2.1% higher than his career average. Unfortunately, it only translated into a .306 OBP, tied for 100th among qualified hitters. The low OBP stems from Tellez's meager .215 batting average. Despite the lower-than-ideal OBP and average, Tellez's power stroke helped balance out his production with a .461 slugging percentage last season (37th in MLB). Yet for a man with the eighth-most homers in baseball, his 115 OPS+ in 2022 felt underwhelming. Tellez's OPS+ ranked just 63rd out of 129 qualified batters.

While hitting into the shift had something to do with the low average and muted OPS+, several other trends are as significant. Simply put, Tellez takes too many pitches that he could crush. Taking too many strikes can also put a hitter on his heels and at a disadvantage too often. Two key stats from 2022:

• Swung at 60.5% of pitches in the strike zone (Z-Swing%), the seventh-lowest percentage in MLB
• Had a 19.5% called strike percentage (CStr%), the 17th-highest percentage in MLB

That is a lot of hittable pitches in no danger of causing problems for opposing hurlers. Not only are many of these pitches wasted, they often put the hitter behind in the count and on the defensive. Considering Tellez was in the 98th percentile for maximum exit velocity in 2022 and the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity, Barrel%, and HardHit%, more hacks earlier in counts could be a game-changer.


Another visualization of Tellez's missed opportunities last season can be seen in Statcast's swing-take zone mapping. As you can see below, there are four attack regions for a hitter:

• Heart: The ideal hitting zone in the middle of the plate, well within the top and bottom of the strike zone
• Shadow: This region is split in half vertically and horizontally both inside the strike zone and outside of it
• Chase: The area outside the strike zone that is tempting enough to make hitters chase high velocity or quality movement
• Waste: Well outside of the strike zone, where only free swingers and desperately fooled hitters take cuts

Statcast takes the data from these regions to create a run value based on the outcome of the pitch in each section (walk, home run, strikeout, etc.). If you peek back at Tellez's illustration above, he had a -4 run value on pitches in the heart of the zone and -8 runs in the shadow region. His 2022 rankings in each area:

• Heart - 130th
• Shadow - 87th
• Chase - 116th
• Waste - 96th 

The place to do the most damage is in the heart of the plate, and to do that, more swings (and hard contact) are necessary. Especially with MLB limiting defensive shifting in 2023, Tellez needs to take advantage by worrying less about taking pitches and more about hitting mistakes. As he has gotten more playing time over the past two seasons, the shifting increased against him, making a big difference in his weighted on-base average (wOBA).


Tellez also saw his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) plummet to .215 last season. The combination of shifting and rotten luck played a significant role for a player with a career .255 BABIP. These numbers should excite Brewers fans for 2023, and motivate Tellez to get more hacks in. Last year, he hit 129 ground balls into the shift and picked up just 16 hits (.124 average). With only two defenders on the right side of second base, coupled with Tellez's 86th-percentile average exit velocity, more hits should be coming. And if he puts even more balls in play, the production increases further. In fact, his expected batting average in 2022 was .252 vs. his actual .219 mark.

Hopefully, Tellez and the Brewers at least discuss an altered strategy at the dish. It's challenging to modify a hitter's tendency mid-career, but adjusting to changing environments and results is essential. Many people have suggested that Tellez is a strong breakout candidate because of the shifting rules. If he can also lose his patience more often, Tellez could find himself among the best offensive first basemen in the league and on the All-Star roster.