Round Table: Do You Like the Josh Hader Trade?

Tommy Ciacciio

"It finally happened" is a weird way to start a conversation about something that feels counterintuitive and inorganic. I understand that the identity of the closer is outsized relative to their actual value. That said, since the moment Josh Hader was acquired for Carlos Gomez all those years ago, he's been inextricably attached to the identity of the Brewers as fearless small market titans who are perpetually competitive. 

It's rational to react negatively when the author of so many emotional moments is abruptly and permanently absent from the role you've associated them with for years. It's important to take a birds-eye view of the situation and assess whether or not those emotions have purchase when considering the trade's effect on the team. And my (unsolicited) objective, sterile and emotionless opinion? They do not. 

Sports are about the moment. As much as the spindly flamethrowing Josh Hader may have appeared nearly superhuman in his dominance, the metrics don't suggest irreplaceability. The most immediately useful piece is Taylor Rogers. An All-Star last year, Rogers doesn't have what it takes to replace Hader directly, but he does have what it takes to set up for Devin Williams, who hasn't allowed a run since May 10th.

Dinelson Lamet is the player with the second most major league experience. While less effective due to a series of injuries, he is only two years separated from a fourth place Cy Young finish. 

And then there is Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz to complete the trade. A pitching and outfield prospect respectively, each comes with an exciting high ceiling. Gasser is a crafty control pitcher who, despite not having dominating velocity, has managed a 30.5% strikeout rate. The speedy Ruiz maintained a gaudy .450 OBP in double and triple-A over 374 plate appearances.

There are worse problems than being loaded with a bastion of young, elite talent, but with elite talent comes commensurate paydays. The Brewers will soon be forced to navigate paydays for Woodruff and Burnes, Adames and Urias. Investing heavily in a one-inning asset, even one of historical domination, just wasn't tenable. Fortunately, the savvy Stearns regime has found a way to trade him for a hefty bounty and remain at least as close to competitive as they were Monday morning. 

Kyle Ginsbach
I'll admit I was initially shocked when the trade was first broken. After the initial shock died down, I was on board. 

I think what many fans are missing with this deal is the real value of the return. Though Rogers isn't the same caliber as Hader, he's a proven major league reliever, and the Brewers might not even ask him to close.

Neither Ruiz nor Lament are proven big leaguers, but both ooze with potential. Ruiz boasted an OPS over 1.000 and stole over 60 bags in AAA this year. Lament arguably boasts Cy-Young caliber stuff when he's healthy and has command. Though Gasser's numbers don't jump off the page, any pitcher the Brewers front office is high on is worth noting. 

Most Brewer fans are aware of what they're losing, and as hard as it may be to see Hader go, now was probably the right time. More than ever, the Brewers can replace a closer, and there's never a bad time to add young talent.

Obviously, the Brewers are betting they can replace Hader's production and add for the future. If that's the case, I'm sold.

Caswell Dommisse
Do I think the Crew could have gotten more? Probably. But the reliever market has changed so much since that huge Aroldis Chapman trade that brought him to Chicago back in 2016. This trade seems pretty fair overall. 

Rogers and Lamet are both exciting pitchers. Rogers has 28 saves on the year, second to Hader's 29 across the entire MLB, and offers an intriguing approach. His numbers are drastically elevated from one appearance back on June 2nd in Milwaukee, where he took the loss with four earned runs. 

Rogers is a free agent at year's end, but Lamet will be arbitration-eligible for one more season. He has struggled with injuries but has elite stretches. Looking at both of these guys makes it seem like the Padres limit their pitchers quite a bit, as each has decreased their pitch repertoire this season, so both could be a little different than what we've seen thus far. I am wondering what the plan will be with Lamet, who is a better starter than a reliever (3.78 ERA versus 6.90). 

Gasser looks to be quite good, and with the way the Crew has been developing pitchers, I'd be very excited if I were him to work in the pitching lab. I expect him to make a jump shortly and for fans to hear from him soon. He will need to limit the extra-base hits against right-handed batters, who have slugged .457 despite an average of .262. Lefties need to be concerned, though, with only 1(!) extra-base hit, a double, against him and an average of just .216. 

I am underwhelmed about Ruiz, but he has had some really good numbers in the minors this year, so maybe David Stearns sees him filling in that center field gap I talked about in my article a couple of days ago.

Overall, I am very happy with this deal; it gives quite a bit of insight into the general direction the Brewers have as an organization. Rather than draining the farm for one huge run, a sustained attack with many runs where the team hopes to get lucky is critical for a small market team who won't pay those big free agents.