Impending Roster Crunch

The agreed upon roster limitations include a maximum of 13 pitchers on the active roster, with the Brewers currently at 15 - they are using both extra roster spots for pitching staff. Below is a breakdown of the roster, as currently constructed. Any player marked with an asterisk (*) has available options.

Pitching Cuts
First things first, which two pitchers will no longer be on the MLB roster? The rotation is set, leaving us the bullpen to cull. Even if they go back to using Ashby out of the bullpen, he isn’t on the shortlist for Nashville. The Brewers could choose to keep all the players that have remaining options, but it would require them to designate another player for assignment (DFA).

For now, I don’t see the Brewers moving on from any of the players that would require a DFA, as they’ve earned their keep - for the here and now. That can change quickly. The two players that fall into the safe from DFA category are Trevor Gott and José Ureña. I see three likely candidates to be optioned, two will head to Nashville and the other is sure to be shuttled at some point this year: Jake Cousins, Jandel Gustave, and Hoby Milner.

Jake Cousins
Cousins is electric, but he suffers because of it. His slider bites so hard that it often ends up at the backstop as a past ball. In 2022 he has worked to a 3.60 ERA over seven innings, allowing five hits, one walk, one hit by pitch, racked up four wild pitches, and accrued seven strike outs. He may get bumped to AAA to get more regular work, where he can pitch in high leverage situations with regularity and get his work in. Even if he is optioned to AAA, expect to see him back at the MLB level this year - he is simply too electric to keep out of the bullpen.

Jandel Gustave
Gustave has gotten regular work for Counsell this year, racking up 5 2/3 innings in the first 13 games. He has pitched in both a mop-up role as well as with a lead. Gustave throws a sinker that acts as more of a fastball along with a slider with nice shape to it. In his 5 2/3 innings, he has pitched to a 4.76 ERA, allowing five hits (one for a home run), three walks, and four strikeouts. While he is holding his own to a degree, he isn’t lights out and doesn’t feature pitches likely to be highlighted by Pitching Ninja. What we are seeing is what we can expect from him, low-leverage innings chosen for him by Counsell. Gustave is not the type of guy you want to roll into the postseason relying on.

Hoby Milner
Milner picked up his first decision, a win, this year and is looking sharp. He is a pitch to contact guy with a weird arm slot, which rewards him with weak contact. He has appeared in five games and picked up 4 2/3 innings. In that time, he has posted a 0.00 ERA, allowing three hits, no walks, and three strikeouts. Milner has looked reliable so far this year but maybe loses a little value as he plays a similar role to Brent Suter on the roster. If optioned, he will appear on the MLB roster again later this year.

I see Jandel Gustave as the sure bet to head to Nashville, joined by Hoby Milner. Cousins pitched very well in Milwaukee in 2021 and is likely to be rewarded for his contributions. He may benefit from the regular innings, but has a much higher ceiling than Milner. I expect Milner will be the first call up to supplement the bullpen when the need arises.

Urías to return from the IL 
Luis Urías is set to begin his rehab assignment with AA Biloxi on Saturday. With Milwaukee’s offense sputtering with occasional signs of life, getting back the 2021 home run leader can’t come soon enough. With his return, the Crew will have to send one of the bench infielders packing for Nashville as well. This time, the options are Keston Hiura and Mike Brosseau. Jace Peterson feels safe as he is a left-handed hitter and doesn’t have any options left.

Keston Hiura
Hiura is looking to bounce back after a really rough 2021 campaign, during which he hit .168/.256/.301. This was good for an OPS+ of 49, which means he was 51% worse than your average MLB hitter. Hiura has appeared in seven games in 2022, totaling 17 plate appearances - hardly an exhaustive data set. During those 17 PA, he is hitting .222/.333/.453. On Wednesday he did drive a ball out to deep right field, picking up three RBI and cementing the Brewers win. Keston has limited opportunities to prove his way back into the everyday lineup, blocked by Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong, Andrew McCutchen, and Christian Yelich. Part of the trouble is that Hiura has reverse splits, where he bats significantly better against right-handed pitching than he does lefties. The lineup may opt to keep a bench bat with a better platoon advantage.

Mike Brosseau
Brosseau doesn’t have a shining resume on the year either, sporting a measly .154/.214/.385. He has 14 plate appearances in seven games for 2022, the highlight of which was the home run in Chicago. Brosseau has not appeared in a game for Counsell at all during the Pirates series, although they featured all right-handed starting pitchers. Historically, against southpaws, Brosseau has an OPS+ of 127, making him a valuable piece off the bench or for a spot start against LHP. He is also more versatile and can play any of the infield positions, as opposed to Keston’s limitation of first base, second base, or left field.

I think they’ll both get more opportunities before the decision is made, and if either player is hot they’ll stick around. If nothing changes, I do see Hiura heading to AAA for regular at-bats where he can continue his development. Brosseau carries a lot of value in his defensive versatility and is more valuable off the bench against LHP. This is by no means a clear-cut decision, and the coming week may play a major role in the coming decision.

One other caveat: should Urías return to the MLB roster prior to May 2, I think Jandel Gustave will be optioned before a decision will have to be made on either Hiura or Brosseau. Milwaukee will want to delay the infield move longer than losing one of their bullpen group.

Which relievers do you think will no longer be on the big league roster come May 2? Do you think Hiura or Brosseau get to hang around, for now? Let us know what you think in the comments!