Reds Provide a Chance to Regain Confidence

The trade of Josh Hader felt abrupt despite him being dangled for the last couple of seasons. After that exchange with the Padres, the now second place Brewers largely stood pat with the team they have, spare the acquisition of a few bullpen arms. The lack of a meaningful offensive acquisition left some scratching their heads, and the team’s perceived deficiencies probably felt exaggerated after a rare Corbin Burnes loss at the hands of a bad Pirates team. Worse still by a blown save and walk-off loss in the second game and, as if scripted, a wild pitch walk off to give the Bucs a sweep over Milwaukee.

Losses sting, but the amalgam of bad that immediately followed an inert trade deadline makes the front office’s silence deafening. How can they rebound against the Reds? Let’s check out the match-ups.

Friday August 5th
Eric Lauer (7-3 3.75)
Robert Dugger (0-0 4.50 ERA)

Originally scheduled to pitch the day before against the Pirates, the Brewers opted to strategize the return of Freddy Peralta to help nudge the homer-prone Eric Lauer to a home start. A savvy move as Lauer’s splits have shown him to be significantly stronger at home.

Robert Dugger is being called up for his first start of the season, having spent most of the time in AAA spare a few long relief appearances. That Dugger is starting at all is merely a product of necessity. A career ERA of 6.97 and the strikeout rate of 18.3% substantiate the negative career WAR of the utilitarian Texas Tech product.

Saturday August 6th
Aaron Ashby (2-9 4.13 ERA)
Nick Lodolo (3-3 4.23 ERA)

Aaron Ashby's last two starts have shown an improvement from the slippery slope he’d been on. That they resulted in losses is hardly his fault, particularly the penultimate appearance where two earned runs and nine strikeouts over seven innings were met with no run support.

The lanky Nick Lodolo comes to AmFam Field on the heels of back-to-back quality starts, most recently putting up a strong effort against a better-than-expected Orioles lineup.

Sunday August 7th
Corbin Burnes (8-5 2.49 ERA)
Hunter Greene (4-12 5.26 ERA)
An established ace squares off against a nascent one.

What should be the takeaway from Burnes struggling in his most recent start against the Pirates? I should hope that, aside from the fact that Burnes is a human, that the answer is “absolutely nothing”. Burnes has lost some of the polish on the control front this season, already hitting 9 batters to last years six and with a SO/W of 4.61 to last years astounding 6.88, but he’s earned a long enough leash to be occasionally imperfect without too many corked eyebrows.

Hunter Greene ’s season is detailed more specifically below in the “Players too Watch” section, but Greene has been anything from work-in-progress to superhuman. The sky is the limit for the high ceiling 22-year-old, and if he’s on point he’s capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone, including Burnes. 

Players To Watch
Our late inning relief: Matt Bush’s dominating power pitching and Devin Williams mastery weren’t particularly dialed in Pittsburgh and both earned a loss as a result. If there is one team that can serve to re-inspire one’s confidence, it should be Cincinnati.

Christian Yelich : Yeli has always been a punishing presence against Cincinnati. Let’s see how his new mechanics fare against the grist to his mill. 

Joey Votto : I normally wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to watch anyone languishing in a .732 OPS, even an aging legend with a Hall Of Fame pedigree, but there are few players more likable or charismatic than TikTok legend Joey Votto. Even if he isn’t flashing at the plate, there is a good chance that he’ll give you something to watch.

Hunter Greene: At the other end of their career we have flamethrowing prodigy Greene. At 22, the Reds righty has given their front office enough confidence to develop him in the bigs, even if there have been struggles with control and home runs in the past. In his most recent start, Greene gave up one hit and no walks on the way to striking out eight Marlins over the course of seven innings. Outings like that are the reason for high hopes surrounding Greene, and while he’ll likely be a torment to the Brewers for seasons to come. 

Predictions
Only so much can be taken from an objectively good team being swept by the likes of the Pirates, but far less predictable things take place in baseball every week. The Brewers are the better team, and the already bad Reds got far worse when they stripped out their few useful parts in the trade deadline. My guess is that the Crew snags two of the three.