Predicting Roster Moves for Brewers in Arbitration Years

Your numbers for the Woodruff and Adames extensions seem pretty light. 

4/52 for Adames puts his two FA years at like $15-16M which is seems way too light even if more FA years were bought out. 

3/45 for Woodruff puts his one FA year at like $20M which seems light for only buying out one year of FA.

Your numbers for the Woodruff and Adames extensions seem pretty light. 

4/52 for Adames puts his two FA years at like $15-16M which is seems way too light even if more FA years were bought out. 

3/45 for Woodruff puts his one FA year at like $20M which seems light for only buying out one year of FA.

Being able to buy out one year of free agency with Woodruff would be great, would much rather have that than a 6 year deal but doubt Woodruff would go for it . Would have to make that third year worth it  and 3/45 doesn't do it.

Being able to buy out one year of free agency with Woodruff would be great, would much rather have that than a 6 year deal but doubt Woodruff would go for it . Would have to make that third year worth it  and 3/45 doesn't do it.

13 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

I don't doubt that the numbers do skew on the light side. In my thinking, though, the Brewers won't worry about pushing the envelope too much this season for extensions. It will have to be more "team friendly," so yes, it' s up to the player (agent) to decide what's more valuable for them this year & "gambling' on the future.

For Woodruff, I definitely did consider the Castillo extension; however, Castillo was going to be a free agent after the 2023 season, so he had more leverage with his current team than Woodruff (under control through 2024). And his deal could be something like $10.75 in 2023, $13 in 2024 and $21.25 in 2025.

Adames will be extremely interesting to see how much his defense is valued financially...and then how to compare him to the big free agent class of shortstops this offseason (T. Turner, C. Correa, D. Swanson, X. Bogaerts maybe, T. Anderson maybe). Does he build up more value by the team he hits free agency where he has less competition and possibly better production for a bigger deal?

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff). 

13 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

I don't doubt that the numbers do skew on the light side. In my thinking, though, the Brewers won't worry about pushing the envelope too much this season for extensions. It will have to be more "team friendly," so yes, it' s up to the player (agent) to decide what's more valuable for them this year & "gambling' on the future.

For Woodruff, I definitely did consider the Castillo extension; however, Castillo was going to be a free agent after the 2023 season, so he had more leverage with his current team than Woodruff (under control through 2024). And his deal could be something like $10.75 in 2023, $13 in 2024 and $21.25 in 2025.

Adames will be extremely interesting to see how much his defense is valued financially...and then how to compare him to the big free agent class of shortstops this offseason (T. Turner, C. Correa, D. Swanson, X. Bogaerts maybe, T. Anderson maybe). Does he build up more value by the team he hits free agency where he has less competition and possibly better production for a bigger deal?

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff). 

I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article.

Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season.

Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.

I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article.

Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season.

Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.

33 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article.

Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season.

Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.

 

 

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc. 

33 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article.

Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season.

Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.

 

 

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc. 

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc. 

Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign.

When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, these are much more realistic figures imo. Though, I'm not sure if I would give that extension to Adames, considering 1) we have Turang (and Brown) 2) we'll be paying Yelich throughout most such a deal, and 3) Adames doesn't quite fit the profile of a player who is likely to age gracefully. Top tier starting pitchers have a much longer shelf-life these days (e.g., Verlander, Scherzer, DeGrom, etc.), which is why I think we need to focus our extension efforts on Burnes and Woodruff, specifically. Adames might prove most useful to the organization as a trade asset to replenish the team with younger talent. Also, it's important to note that, if Chourio continues on his superstar prospect trajectory, we'll want to retain the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, Harris, etc. 

Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign.

When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.

26 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign.

When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there.

I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal with a viable replacement ready in Turang. 

I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us. 

26 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign.

When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there.

I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal with a viable replacement ready in Turang. 

I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us. 

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there.

I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal.

I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us. 

Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power.

If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. Obviously, Burnes is a tough sign, with Woodruff being far more realistic. You have no argument from me there.

I just think we should be cautious about extending Adames in light of the Yelich deal. Like, is he more the player that we saw in 2021 and September of this year, or the player that we saw for most of 2022? If the former, then yes, sign him to an extension. If the latter, though, an extension is probably not in our best interest. I know that if the Dodgers called us up this offseason and offered Vargas and one of their pitching prospects for him (e.g., Pepiot), I would seriously consider the deal.

I want the flexibility to lock up an ace starter (probably Woodruff) and, eventually, Chourio. Those are the types of talents are the essential ingredients to building a World Series-contending club. God knows Yelich already significantly hampers us. 

Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power.

If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.

33 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power.

If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. 

Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. 

As for Chourio, you're right in that any extension would come very early in his big league career a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, etc. But you do realize that such an extension would also cover his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, which will definitely coincide with Yelich and Woodruff/Burnes? We'd actually be paying more (relatively) on the front end, while hopefully getting a bargain on the back-end. Why it's wise for a cash-strapped team like the Brewers to be cautious in doling out extensions, as it can seriously limit your financial flexibility down the road. 

33 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power.

If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.

In September, Adames slashed: .274/.339/.496. That's in line with his 2021 season, as opposed to the rest of this past season where he mostly hit in the low 200s with a sub .300 OBP. That's what I'm talking about when I question which player we're going to get moving forward. It would be to our detriment as a franchise if it's the low 200 BA/sub .300 OBP player whose defense will eventually decline as he ages throughout an extension. But if it's the 2021/September 2022 player, then you're looking at a 5-7 WAR guy in the first few years who will still hit enough to offset the inevitable defensive decline in the later years. That's definitely someone worth extending. 

Now, you may be right in that his lower batting line this year was the result of an abnormally low BABIP. But I would rather wait into next season to find out for sure, as opposed to rushing into an extension this offseason only to learn that 2021 was the high point as far as his bat is concerned. And if during this offseason, a team like the Dodgers were to inquire as to his availability, I would seriously consider it depending on the package. 

As for Chourio, you're right in that any extension would come very early in his big league career a la. Acuna, Franco, Rodriguez, etc. But you do realize that such an extension would also cover his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, which will definitely coincide with Yelich and Woodruff/Burnes? We'd actually be paying more (relatively) on the front end, while hopefully getting a bargain on the back-end. Why it's wise for a cash-strapped team like the Brewers to be cautious in doling out extensions, as it can seriously limit your financial flexibility down the road. 

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I disagree. The Brewers need to be pushing the envelope for an extension from at least one of their aces. As we have seen this postseason, you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop. If the Brewers hope to capitalize on this next wave of position player talent headlined by Chourio, they will need to retain one of those guys to anchor the rotation (probably Woodruff). 

Burnes is the one they should open the bank for. I don't think it will happen, but if we truly believe: "you need those types of pitchers to effectively compete for a World Series. Yet, they are in rare supply and are particularly hard to develop." Burnes is the one to target. A top 3 SP, not a top 15 SP.

But if our position player prospects hit, we might not need 3 top 25 SP to win.