Potential First Base Free Agent Targets: Jose Abreu and Josh Bell

Morosi is reporting that the Padres are making Abreu their top priority as a free agent signing this off season, and have already contacted him.

Once the teams with the big boy funds start to inquire about the guys that we might want, odds are, we aren't going to get them without overpaying.

On 11/18/2022 at 9:02 AM, Lajitas said:

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

You're both correct.

In 2022, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #119 in FIP, a low #4.

In 2021, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #65, a high #3.

Between 2021 and 2022 combined, among pitchers with at least 180 IP Lauer ranked #92, a high #4.

On 11/18/2022 at 9:02 AM, Lajitas said:

"Most teams #3"  Yeah, non-contending teams.  And in 2002, Lauer would have been the Brewers ace.  Ace on a team that loses over 100 games.

Any team that looks at Lauer as their #3 isn't a team looking to make the playoffs.

 

You're both correct.

In 2022, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #119 in FIP, a low #4.

In 2021, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #65, a high #3.

Between 2021 and 2022 combined, among pitchers with at least 180 IP Lauer ranked #92, a high #4.

43 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

You're both correct.

In 2022, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #119 in FIP, a low #4.

In 2021, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #65, a high #3.

Between 2021 and 2022 combined, among pitchers with at least 180 IP Lauer ranked #92, a high #4.

 

Woah. Just relying on FIP to assess Lauer's performance over the past two years is dangerous. FIP should ideally be used in concert with other measures, such as ERA+/-, etc.

So, by ERA-, for example, Lauer finished:

30th among pitchers with at least 90 IP in 2021, a high #2.

61st among pitchers with at least 90 IP in 2022, a high #3.

By actual production over the past two years, Lauer is ranked 39th, just behind Gerrit Cole and Chris Bassett, and good enough for a #2 starter. So, split the difference with FIP and Lauer has indeed been an elite #4 starter for us and would be a solid #3/#2 on a lot of teams. 

43 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

You're both correct.

In 2022, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #119 in FIP, a low #4.

In 2021, among pitchers with at least 90 IP, Lauer ranked #65, a high #3.

Between 2021 and 2022 combined, among pitchers with at least 180 IP Lauer ranked #92, a high #4.

 

Woah. Just relying on FIP to assess Lauer's performance over the past two years is dangerous. FIP should ideally be used in concert with other measures, such as ERA+/-, etc.

So, by ERA-, for example, Lauer finished:

30th among pitchers with at least 90 IP in 2021, a high #2.

61st among pitchers with at least 90 IP in 2022, a high #3.

By actual production over the past two years, Lauer is ranked 39th, just behind Gerrit Cole and Chris Bassett, and good enough for a #2 starter. So, split the difference with FIP and Lauer has indeed been an elite #4 starter for us and would be a solid #3/#2 on a lot of teams. 

Problem with baseball stats, you can usually find the stats to back up your point, but then again, so can the guy on the other side of the argument.

So many stats to use, so many outcomes.

Problem with baseball stats, you can usually find the stats to back up your point, but then again, so can the guy on the other side of the argument.

So many stats to use, so many outcomes.

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

So many stats to use, so many outcomes.

But only three true ones …

(Slowly retreats back to the minor league forum.)

1 hour ago, Hopper said:

So many stats to use, so many outcomes.

But only three true ones …

(Slowly retreats back to the minor league forum.)

On 11/15/2022 at 5:02 PM, LouisEly said:

Chris Carter's career K rate: 33.3%

Rowdy Tellez's career K rate: 22.4% (and 20.2% last year, 18.4% in 2021). 

Not sure what your definition of "mainstay" is, but Tellez is "good enough" at his current salary (that may change with arbitration).  If Abreu costs $20M/year and Tellez comes in at his rough arbitration estimate of $5M... Abreu isn't worth $15M more.

And Tellez isn't like Chris Carter at all.

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

On 11/15/2022 at 5:02 PM, LouisEly said:

Chris Carter's career K rate: 33.3%

Rowdy Tellez's career K rate: 22.4% (and 20.2% last year, 18.4% in 2021). 

Not sure what your definition of "mainstay" is, but Tellez is "good enough" at his current salary (that may change with arbitration).  If Abreu costs $20M/year and Tellez comes in at his rough arbitration estimate of $5M... Abreu isn't worth $15M more.

And Tellez isn't like Chris Carter at all.

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

10 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

Depends on what the team does with Wong, Renfroe & Burnes. The payroll is already at $123M, so adding ~$20M with no trades of the aforementioned isn’t going to work.

The team would probably need to trade at least 2 of them if not all 3 to free up the payroll space to add Abreu, plus a possible catcher, reliever, and starter depth.

Maybe some of that can come back to us from the trades, but payroll will need to be shed if we want to add a $20M type player. 

10 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

Depends on what the team does with Wong, Renfroe & Burnes. The payroll is already at $123M, so adding ~$20M with no trades of the aforementioned isn’t going to work.

The team would probably need to trade at least 2 of them if not all 3 to free up the payroll space to add Abreu, plus a possible catcher, reliever, and starter depth.

Maybe some of that can come back to us from the trades, but payroll will need to be shed if we want to add a $20M type player. 

12 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

So we're using batting average and RBIs to assess a player's value?  And you say my point is "nonsensical"?

12 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Your money argument is nonsensical.  You could take any mediocre player and compare him with a good player at that position and convince yourself that the incremental benefit isn’t worth it, one by one.  And then you win 75 games.  

Rowdy, like Carter, is all homers and not much else.  Even with his power he was a sub .800 OPS guy and couldn’t even knock in 90 runs from run producing spots in the order.   He’s a subpar defender and could not even manage to hit .220.  Comparing his strikeouts with Carter’s is way out on the margins.   

The Brewers need a force in the middle of the lineup, especially from the right side.  Abreu solves all that Rowdy lacks.   That’s worth the money difference.  It’s precisely why Abreu gets paid.   It’s precisely why other teams will be all over him.  He may get priced outside of Milwaukee but it’s because he’s worth it.  

So we're using batting average and RBIs to assess a player's value?  And you say my point is "nonsensical"?

On 11/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, Hopper said:

Morosi is reporting that the Padres are making Abreu their top priority as a free agent signing this off season, and have already contacted him.

Once the teams with the big boy funds start to inquire about the guys that we might want, odds are, we aren't going to get them without overpaying.

Agreed, we mine as well forget about adding Abreu, we'll need to massive overpay.

Go get Luke Voit instead.

On 11/19/2022 at 8:26 PM, Hopper said:

Morosi is reporting that the Padres are making Abreu their top priority as a free agent signing this off season, and have already contacted him.

Once the teams with the big boy funds start to inquire about the guys that we might want, odds are, we aren't going to get them without overpaying.

Agreed, we mine as well forget about adding Abreu, we'll need to massive overpay.

Go get Luke Voit instead.

Some of you are acting like Abreu is a "force?"  Yes he has a hit tool that Rowdy doesn't have, but 15 homers in 2022 is far from a "force."

Some of you are acting like Abreu is a "force?"  Yes he has a hit tool that Rowdy doesn't have, but 15 homers in 2022 is far from a "force."

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation.

But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)?

Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st.

Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.

Abreu would be fine if you are looking for a #3 hitter but traditionally when someone says run producer they usually mean the #4 spot in the lineup.  I think you lose value with Abreu as the #4 hitter and he is better as the #3 hitter in the lineup.

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

A players HR total is certainly one part of the equation.

But why leave out batting average (Abreu ranked 8th) and on base percentage (Abreu ranked 9th)?

Add it all up, adjust for home ballpark & league wide offensive environment, and Jose’s 137 wRC+ last year ranked 21st.

Does that make him a “force”? I dunno, that’s an arbitrary determination. It would have made him the best hitter on the Brewers by a notable margin though with his 28.6 batting runs almost doubling the Brewers top batter Hunter Renfroe at 14.4.

Abreu would be fine if you are looking for a #3 hitter but traditionally when someone says run producer they usually mean the #4 spot in the lineup.  I think you lose value with Abreu as the #4 hitter and he is better as the #3 hitter in the lineup.

On 11/21/2022 at 8:44 AM, Hopper said:

Some of you are acting like Abreu is a "force?"  Yes he has a hit tool that Rowdy doesn't have, but 15 homers in 2022 is far from a "force."

He had 40 doubles and an OPS over .800 and has had power in the past.  He’s an accomplished hitter.  IMO

On 11/21/2022 at 8:26 AM, LouisEly said:

So we're using batting average and RBIs to assess a player's value?  And you say my point is "nonsensical"?

100%.