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By all accounts, the Brewers regular first baseman and fan favorite, Rowdy Tellez had a fine 2022 season. He bashed 35 home runs, 23 doubles, and knocked in 89 run. While he only hit .219 for the year, he drew a respectable 62 walks and for a power-hitting slugger, struck out at a reasonable rate, with just 121 whiffs in 599 plate appearances. With a .767 OPS and a 115 OPS+, first base, at first blush, wasn't the main problem for the Brewers offense.
Taking a deeper dive into Tellez's numbers though, he posted a -1.3 brDWar, and Fangraphs didn't like his defense much either, slotting him at -12.9 runs with the glove. His BABiP was surprisingly low, at .215, which was well below his career norms, and well below any number in his career prior, so that number should be expected to rebound in the coming season. But with a player like Rowdy Tellez, should Matt Arnold stand pat or look to improve?
Taking a look at free agency, the two players who are available and may fit the Brewers budget are Josh Bell and former American League MVP, Jose Abreu. It's worth noting that acquiring either of these players doesn't preclude the Brewers from bringing back Tellez, with the addition of the DH to the National League. The Brewers have the luxury now (finally) of carrying a bat-only player on the roster.
Taking a look at Jose Abreu, the obvious drawback is his age. Abreu will be 36 on Opening Day 2023. Abreu hit .304 in 2022, though his power took a dip, down from 30 home runs in 2021 to just 15 in 2022. Whether that's age-related, or just an odd fluctuation, it's hard to say. His launch angle at 8.0 degrees was the lowest of his career, but not by a large amount. His barrel percentage, hard hit, and exit velocity are still all in line or close to career averages. Despite his age, he's not showing much, if any, age-related decline.
| Season | Team | Level | Events | EV | maxEV | LA | Barrels | Barrel% | HardHit | HardHit% | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | CHW | MLB | 474 | 91.0 | 114.9 | 9.7 | 42 | 8.9% | 197 | 41.6% | .290 | .270 | .502 | .456 | .361 | .338 |
| 2016 | CHW | MLB | 508 | 89.7 | 113.4 | 10.3 | 36 | 7.1% | 199 | 39.2% | .293 | .280 | .468 | .467 | .349 | .348 |
| 2017 | CHW | MLB | 506 | 90.6 | 114.9 | 11.1 | 43 | 8.5% | 231 | 45.7% | .304 | .290 | .552 | .520 | .377 | .364 |
| 2018 | CHW | MLB | 396 | 91.3 | 115.5 | 12.2 | 35 | 8.8% | 179 | 45.2% | .265 | .277 | .473 | .493 | .337 | .356 |
| 2019 | CHW | MLB | 492 | 92.1 | 117.9 | 10.9 | 59 | 12.0% | 237 | 48.2% | .284 | .279 | .503 | .517 | .344 | .358 |
| 2020 | CHW | MLB | 182 | 92.9 | 114.0 | 10.9 | 26 | 14.3% | 97 | 53.3% | .317 | .299 | .617 | .587 | .411 | .399 |
| 2021 | CHW | MLB | 433 | 92.0 | 115.6 | 10.4 | 44 | 10.2% | 212 | 49.0% | .261 | .252 | .481 | .457 | .354 | .349 |
| 2022 | CHW | MLB | 495 | 92.2 | 113.0 | 8.0 | 47 | 9.5% | 256 | 51.7% | .304 | .296 | .446 | .486 | .361 | .373 |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 3486 | 91.3 | 117.9 | 10.4 | 332 | 9.5% | 1608 | 46.1% | .292 | .506 | .364 |
He did sock forty doubles and put up a more-than-solid .304/.378/.446 (.824) slash line, with a 133 OPS+. Any team investing two or three years in him is probably expecting to get a little more pop out of their first base position, of course, but there's a bit of a gamble that his power dip was a one-year anomaly. The .446 slugging percentage was the lowest of his career, and while at his age expecting Abreu to put up the numbers he did in his late 20's is unrealistic, the Brewers (or any team to sign him) would probably be banking on getting 20+ home run power for a few more seasons.
Abreu's defense wasn't fantastic, and never really has been. He was -0.9 brDwar and was rated at -11.9 runs defensively at Fangraphs. Despite his poor defense, Abreu put up a 4.2 bWAR and a 3.9 WAR, per Fangraphs. Again, given age-related decline, we should expect that number to dip a little bit over the next few years, but that's still a sizeable improvement over the 0.9 WAR Tellez supplied this past season.
The other target the Brewers may look at for first base, Josh Bell, was previously discussed at the trade deadline as a possible upgrade for the position. While the Brewers didn't acquire him, the Crew may take another look at Bell now in free agency. Bell's season was definitely a tale of two halves. In Washington, he hit a very nice .301 with 14 home runs with an .877 OPS. With Washington well out of the playoff race early, Bell's name was attached to just about every contender looking for some extra offense, including the Brewers.
In the end, Bell went to the Padres, where he struggled immensely for the rest of the season, hitting a paltry .192 with just three home runs over 210 plate appearances. While it's hard to ignore the struggles he had down the stretch, Bell is just entering his age-30 season, and has a solid track record of success at the plate over seven major-league seasons. Like Abreu, Bell's power numbers were down last season, with 17 home runs between Washington and San Diego.
| Season | Team | Level | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | PIT | MLB | 1.75 | 21.4% | 50.0% | 28.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 0.0% | 22.3% | 34.8% | 42.9% | 22.3% | 44.6% | 33.0% |
| 2017 | PIT | MLB | 1.64 | 17.7% | 51.1% | 31.2% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 41.5% | 29.6% | 28.9% | 20.6% | 46.8% | 32.6% |
| 2018 | PIT | MLB | 1.49 | 19.0% | 48.5% | 32.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 33.8% | 37.6% | 28.6% | 19.2% | 47.0% | 33.8% |
| 2019 | PIT | MLB | 1.18 | 18.8% | 44.0% | 37.3% | 6.5% | 23.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 33.2% | 24.3% | 13.2% | 41.3% | 45.4% |
| 2020 | PIT | MLB | 2.17 | 18.6% | 55.7% | 25.7% | 8.3% | 22.2% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 38.6% | 37.1% | 24.3% | 10.7% | 47.9% | 41.4% |
| 2021 | WSN | MLB | 2.02 | 20.0% | 53.5% | 26.5% | 5.7% | 25.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 39.0% | 35.8% | 25.3% | 12.0% | 50.5% | 37.5% |
| 2022 | 2 Tms | MLB | 1.63 | 18.6% | 50.4% | 30.9% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 38.4% | 36.0% | 25.7% | 17.1% | 53.3% | 29.6% |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 1.60 | 18.9% | 49.9% | 31.2% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% | 38.3% | 34.5% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 47.7% | 35.9% |
Bell's HR/FB ratio dropped by more than half, playing in Washington and San Diego. While Pittsburgh isn't exactly known as a hitting haven, Bell's numbers took a big hit playing in two pitcher-friendly environments in 2022. Should the Brewers pursue Bell, Miller Park with its short right-field porch should prove to be a friendlier hitting environment for the big switch-hitter.
Despite his struggles in San Diego, Bell secured a respectable 3.0 bWAR for the season, with a 124 OPS+. Like Tellez and Abreu, Bell's strength is with the stick, and not with the glove. Between both stops, Bell scored a -1.0 brDWar for the season and has historically been subpar at best in the field.
The question around Bell and Abreu, of course, will be contract length and value. Bell is younger and will command a longer commitment, and possibly more dollars per year. At 30, his future may be slightly more projectible, and he hits from both sides of the plate. Abreu put up slightly better numbers for the season, and will almost certainly require fewer years of commitment, given his age. Either one may be a solid fit and allow the Brewers to tandem with Tellez at first base and designated hitter for the next couple of years.
What do you think Brewer fanatics? Is either of these slugging first basemen a good fit for the Brewers? Which one would you target? Or is there someone else out there that is a better fit? Let us know in the comments!
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