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  • Brewers Payroll Preview: How Much can they Spend?


    John Bonnes

    In the previous four payroll stories, we found that the Brewers will go into the offseason with salaries somewhere between $110 and $125M. How much can we expect them to spend?

    Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

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    This is part 5 of a series of stories detailing the payroll situation for the Milwaukee Brewers at a back-of-the-napkin level. Previously, we looked at the total salaries of the infielders, outfielders, rotation, and bullpen, and came up with a $125M commitment for next year. Today we look at how much more than that they can expect to spend. 


    To get a sense of where the Brewers might go with their payroll, it might help to look at where they've been. 

    According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, here is what Milwaukee has spent on payroll over the last six years, along with where it ranked in MLB:
     2022 - $131,930,160 (19)
     2021 - $ 99,316,127 (19)
     2020 - $105,842,057 (22) (prorated)
     2019 - $122,530,400 (17)
     2018 - $ 90,964,571 (26)
     2017 - $ 63,061,300 (30)

    You'll notice that last year's $132M payroll was the high watermark for the franchise but ranked just 19th in Major League Baseball. Nineteenth is respectable, given that Milwaukee is the 40th largest metropolitan area in the USA. But that doesn't give much hope that the team will surpass that level.

    However, there is also no clear trend. We don't see a steady 5-10% increase in payroll. We see a franchise investing in payroll when it senses an opportunity to make some noise, such as coming off of an NLCS appearance in 2018.

    This year's team is not coming off an inspiring postseason run, but there are reasons to invest. Our analysis of the team's rotation payroll showed that the core of the team is on track to hit free agency after the 2024 season, so this generation of Brewers players has two years left in their competitive window.

    Or maybe just one year. At the trade deadline, we just saw that David Stearns isn't averse to trading away star players a year before they become free agents in the hopes of getting back assets that can extend that competitive window.

    If payroll stays steady, the Brewers will have limited room to maneuver to add free agents. Here is what our back-of-the-napkin payroll looked like:

    image.png

    If they Brewers don't raise payroll, they have about $7M to add a big bat at the designated hitter spot or otherwise improve the team. They could decide not to pick up the option for Kolten Wong, but that would only free up $8M (because he has a $2M buyout) and also create another gap to fill.

    They could also make some other moves to add a few million dollars, such as non-tendering Adrian Houser or sacrificing a bullpen arm. A few million here, a few million there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money. But those also create some gaps that need to be filled. 

    The bottom line: if ownership doesn't boost payroll, or Stearns doesn't move one of the team's more significant salaried players off the roster, their options are limited to improve.

    Or maybe you see some options that they should look at closer? You'll get to create your plan and share it with us tomorrow. Stay tuned….

     

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    4 hours ago, JosephC said:

     But if you want to run with the big boys, might as well forget about that until MLB and MLBPA fixes the CBA 

    The root problem for teams in the Brewers' financial situation is that I don't think MLB sees anything as needing to be fixed.

    And the MLBPA certainly doesn't.

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    7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

    It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

    Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

     

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    7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

    It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

    Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

     

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    16 minutes ago, owbc said:

    It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

    Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

     

    Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central. 

     

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    16 minutes ago, owbc said:

    It's what separates us from the Diamondbacks, but far does it separate us from any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs? We're in a deadball era, Burnes and Woodruff are certainly in the top tier of MLB starters, but there are more like 20-25 starters who could be placed in that bucket, not 5-10. And there are more and more of them coming up from the minors every year. 

    Burnes and Woodruff certainly have the potential to do in the postseason what Nola and Wheeler are doing for Philadelphia. In fact, they might have done that in the 2021 playoffs if that hadn't run into the Braves, who had the rotation to match them. 

     

    Burnes has been the best starter in baseball since 2020. No one has numbers across the board as good as him and over as many innings as him in that time frame. He's in the "bucket of buckets" with DeGrom (when healthy) and probably Scherzer. Woodruff is in the "bucket" after that, and even then there's only 5-8 guys in it at most with him (Wheeler, Nola, Cole, etc.). So, yes, other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation. Certainly not the Cardinals, who are our primary competition in the NL Central. 

     

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    40 minutes ago, Patrick425 said:

    Seems likely to me that the Brewers will trade one of their starting pitchers in the off season since they have six if you include Ashby (I don't think they gave him that extension so that he can pitch out of the bullpen). The question is if it will be one of their aces or a back of the rotation guy.

    Seems more likely they'll keep all six, plus sign another.  Rotational depth is something Stearns talked about at his recent presser.

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    40 minutes ago, Patrick425 said:

    Seems likely to me that the Brewers will trade one of their starting pitchers in the off season since they have six if you include Ashby (I don't think they gave him that extension so that he can pitch out of the bullpen). The question is if it will be one of their aces or a back of the rotation guy.

    Seems more likely they'll keep all six, plus sign another.  Rotational depth is something Stearns talked about at his recent presser.

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    20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation.

     

    I'd put the Dodgers in there.

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    20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    other than the Mets and Phillies, no other team can match that kind of quality at the top of the rotation.

     

    I'd put the Dodgers in there.

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    19 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

    I'd put the Dodgers in there.

    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

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    19 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

    I'd put the Dodgers in there.

    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

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    7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

    We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

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    7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    I mean, anything they get for one of those guys is almost certainly going to be in unproven prospect capital, which would come in addition to the several rookies that they'll have to rely on next season. Unless they go ahead and trade/sign for SEVERAL proven players (i.e., Jansen, Abreu, etc.), which we should be highly skeptical of due to our limited resources, they would a lot like the 2022 Diamondbacks. What separates us from most teams in the league is the Burnes-Woodruff 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, which gives us 2 of the best 5 or 10 pitchers in the world. Take that away, and we're very average to below average elsewhere. Given that we only won 86 games this season WITH those guys, saying we would be lucky to win 85 games isn't "silly", it's reality. 

    We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

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    8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

    Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

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    8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Not even the Dodgers. They have Urias, who doesn't quite have the rate stats of Burnes and Woodruff, and Gonsolin, who doesn't have the rate stats nor the innings. 

    Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

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    3 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

    Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

    I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season. 

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    3 minutes ago, Lajitas said:

    Urias had a higher WAR, better FIP and lower WHIP than Burnes while leading the league in ERA and ERA+.  Gonsolin's FIP was 0.20 higher than Woodruff, but had a higher WAR and an incredible 0.875 WHIP in just 23 less innings than Woodruff.  The only advantage Burnes and Woodruff have over those two is they strike more out.

    I was talking about the last three years. You don't become among the best in the game based on one season. 

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    If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

    All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

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    If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

    All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

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    20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

    We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

    Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources. 

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    20 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

    We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league. 

    Yes, But these rosters are completely different. Our strength right now is by far our starting pitching. Take that away and we have little else to fall back on ATM. A Burnes/Woodruff trade, in which you eat away at our major strength, wouldn't win us more games this year without major outside additions, which is a huge ask with our limited resources. 

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    1 minute ago, Lajitas said:

    If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

    All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

    I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. 

    Since 2020:

    Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP,  31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR

    Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR

    DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR

    Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR

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    1 minute ago, Lajitas said:

    If you want to talk about the last three years, you have to bring Kershaw into the discussion.

    All I'm saying is the top of the Dodger rotation is as good as anybody, certainly as good as the Mets and the Phillies in addition to Milwaukee, and you completely dismiss them.

    I'm not saying they're not elite starting pitchers or an elite top of the rotation. I'm just saying that they don't quite match up to those teams, which is validated by the statistical comparison below. 

    Since 2020:

    Burnes and Woodruff: 822.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 2.86 xFIP,  31.85 K%, 25.55 K-BB% 24.6 fWAR

    Wheeler and Nola: 894.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.04 xFIP, 28.25 K%, 23.05 K-BB%, 25.9 fWAR

    DeGrom and Scherzer: 616.1 IP, 2.33 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.56 xFIP, 37.35 K%, 32.4 K-BB% 21.3 fWAR

    Urias and Kershaw: 716 IP, 2.72 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 21.45 K-BB%, 17.9 fWAR

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