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Though the aforementioned 2019 trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to the Padres has primarily played out in the Brewers' favor, Luis Urías, the key piece of the trade, hasn't exactly progressed like the Brewers envisioned.
When the Brewers acquired Urías, they envisioned their everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future. Several throwing errors and mental mistakes later, Willy Adames strode into Milwaukee and took the shortstop job quite convincingly. Urías saw time at both second and third base following the Adames trade but was still on the outside looking in at the end of 2021.
The full expectation was for Urías to take over the starting third base job in 2022, but a plethora of injuries has forced Urías to split time all over the infield. The expectation going forward is still likely as a full-time third baseman, but it remains to be seen if Urías is truly up to the task.
On the offensive side, Urías has only progressed slightly from his days in San Diego. His 2022 slash line sits at .232/.324/.404, good for an OPS+ of 104. His defense has been problematic, posting a -7 OAA and a -3% success rate added. His fWAR for the season sits at 0.9. None of this is bad per se, but it's hard not to be disappointed. Urías was supposed to be capable of being more than just average.
The fact of the matter is, if Urías is going to be playing third base, he needs to be better than average offensively. When comparing Urías to other starting third basemen around the league, he ranks 22nd in fWAR (Min 300 PAs). If his bat can tick upwards like the Brewers were initially expecting, they can almost surely deal with his subpar defense.
There only remains one question to be asked. How likely is it for Urías to breakout offensively? With a dive into Urías' baseball savant page, here's what you can find.
What probably jumps out at anyone is that amount of blue. Luckily, the red circles are signs of encouragement. In the age of the three true outcomes, Urías isn't having much of a problem fitting in. His BB% has remained above 10% for the second consecutive season, and both his Whiff% and Chase Rate being low could suggest his strikeout rate could start trending downwards. As for his power, his 20 grade power tool given to him as a prospect has turned out much better than expected, as he's already demonstrated he's capable of 20+ homer seasons.
There are reasons for optimism, but there are some concerns too. To put it bluntly, Urías is playing to his size. The lack of solid contact is eating into his expected metrics, and it's also playing out on the field. It's not that Urías isn't capable of solid contact - he certainly is - it just isn't coming often enough. If you need evidence of his potential power, look no further than his homerun in Tampa Bay earlier in the year.
Potential or not, Urías isn't a prospect anymore. While he certainly has enjoyed more success as a Brewer, he has arguably taken a step back in 2022, when it was supposed to be his first real opportunity to establish himself as a major league ballplayer.
To cut the chase, there is no simple answer for the future if it involves Luis Urías. He's still only 25 years of age, and shows encouraging signs of more potential, but it just isn't translating on the field. If the Brewers are looking for consistent competitive teams, the future of Urías should be up in the air. A liability on defense and only average offensively, the Brewers need to ask themself where he truly fits.
Now it's your turn. Do you think the Brewers can reasonably expect more out of Urías going forward? What do you think Urías' future looks like?
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