Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic
  • Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?


    Tim Muma

    It is rare to willingly get rid of one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB, who also won a Cy Young Award two seasons ago. However, the Milwaukee Brewers have to consider the option of trading Corbin Burnes now to maximize the return package of talent, especially if they aren't going to offer the right-hander a long-term contract.

    Image courtesy of © MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL / USA TODAY NETWORK

    Brewers Video

     

    GM Matt Arnold will have some tough decisions in the coming months and years, but nothing is more significant than determining how to handle Corbin Burnes' time with the Milwaukee Brewers. That could also be affected by what the Brewers decide to do with Brandon Woodruff. It isn't easy to see them keeping both or offering long-term deals before they become free agents in two seasons. Could they trade both? That would be a gamble, too. But let's look squarely at Burnes and his trade candidacy.

    The 2021 NL Cy Young has been phenomenal since the start of the 2020 season, which means a big payday is on the horizon. Some people need to appreciate how ridiculous Burnes has been in the last three years and how it will impact his salary.

    Corbin Burnes ranks first among MLB starters in these categories since 2020:

    • 2.60 ERA
    • 2.36 FIP
    • 0.96 WHIP
    • 11.83 K/9
    • 33.3 K% 
    • 27.1 K-BB%
    • 7.86 WPA (Win Probability Added)
    • 14.3 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement)

    Burnes makes a strong case for being the best pitcher in baseball right now. With two years of arbitration remaining, he would become a free agent after the 2024 season if he doesn't sign a contract extension. Those numbers for a starter who would hit free agency at 30 with mostly good health could generate a record contract. Burnes also tossed more than 200 innings last season while leading the NL with 243 strikeouts, meaning he isn't likely to decline soon. A quick look at recent starting pitcher contracts could legitimately net Burnes a contract for anywhere between five and eight years from $175-$275 million if a big market team is determined to land him. Check out the list below from Spotrac.com and you can see the huge deals for recent starting pitchers. 

    Spotrac.com


    Realistically, the Brewers are unlikely to invest that much in one player, especially with the way the Christian Yelich deal has gone thus far. Pitchers also carry more injury risk. If the organization doesn't want to lose Burnes to free agency without getting anything in return, this offseason could net them the most crucial haul for future success. The question is, can you get fair value back in a trade?

    For the Brewers to jettison Burnes elsewhere, they need at least a couple of players at the beginning of their MLB careers or on the cusp. Getting two players back who are under team control for five or six years and are ready to contribute now is essential to keep the club from dipping in performance. Then Milwaukee would need a couple of higher-level prospects with significant potential. Ideally, they're getting at least two starting pitchers in the deal and one impact bat. People might argue the return should include a top-20 MLB prospect and three more of the team's best 10 minor leaguers, but that can be subjective.

    It's going to come down to the right fit for a club that lacks top-tier starting pitching and has the means to sign Burns to a long-term contract. It would help if you also had a team that feels comfortable offensively or is willing to add offense via free agency. They would then feel good about swapping out a solid bat (and the other pieces) for a true ace that puts them over the top. The first two clubs that come to mind as examples are the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles. Both teams want to push their franchises forward, and their farm systems were ranked sixth and first this past August.

    Texas has already shown a willingness to pay big bucks by giving Corey Seager and Marcus Semien mega-deals last offseason. The Rangers have six prospects in MLB Pipeline's top 100, including third baseman Josh Jung (#36) and right-handed pitchers Jack Leiter (#45), Owen White (#59), and Brock Porter (#89). Getting Jung and two of those hurlers gets them in the ballpark, then you figure out the fourth player. Texas finished fifth in runs scored (4.36 R/G) in the AL last season but 12th in ERA (4.22), so they would make a considerable jump up with Burnes. Rangers' fans in September were already pining for a rotation with Burnes at the top.

    As for the Orioles, they were only 10th in the AL in runs scored (4.16), although they would have an entire season of catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Gunnar Henderson to increase production in 2023 and beyond. Baltimore also has money to burn in free agency to acquire a big hitter for the middle of its lineup. Meanwhile, the O's 3.97 ERA ranked ninth in the AL; however, they had a 4.35 starting pitching ERA. They could use a stud arm up front to lead their young hurlers.

    Baltimore also has six of MLB's top-100 prospects, though Henderson (#2), right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (#4), and this year's number one overall draft pick, Jackson Holliday, are probably off limits. That leaves outfielder Colton Cowser (#40), infielder Jordan Westburg (#76), and left-handed pitcher DL Hall (#87) in play. Of course, Baltimore could also entice the Brewers with a Major Leaguer. Could outfielders Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander be moved to acquire a starter like Burnes? It's possible because of the Orioles loaded farm system and available cash.

    No matter who the Brewers get in return for a potential Burnes trade, many in the fanbase will be upset - and there's nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately, moving a player of Burnes' caliber at the right time for the best collection of young talent possible is often the ideal long-term option for continued, sustainable success.

    The most intriguing question around a Burnes trade might be, when is the best time to make it happen? Should the Brewers see how 2023 starts and trade him at the mid-season deadline if the club is floundering? It gives you another shot at the playoffs with your two aces (assuming Woodruff is still with the club). Do you wait until next offseason when he has just one year left on the contract and has slightly less value? You also risk injury or ineffectiveness curtailing his worth. That potential for injury and a possible dip in value is why many believe that if the Milwaukee Brewers are going to trade Corbin Burnes, this offseason is the time to strike. What do you think about dealing Burnes away, and who should they try to get back?

    Think you could write a story like this? Brewer Fanatic wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    MORE FROM BREWER FANATIC
    — Latest Brewers coverage from our writers
    — Recent Brewers discussion in our forums
    — Follow Brewer Fanatic via Twitter, Facebook or email

     Share


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    17 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

    Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    17 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

    Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    16 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

    Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    16 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    That is why overvaluing prospects isn’t the best way to build a roster. I seriously doubt that Henderson will be a top 10 MLB shortstop in the next 6 years.

    Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
     

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

    Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

     

    So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

    Ah, I see you think he'll be a 3B. Quite possible.

     

    So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
     

     

    What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    Why do you seriously doubt that? He’s the unanimous number one prospect in baseball who had a 125 wRC+ in 130 MLB PA as a young 21 year old. 
     

     

    What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

    I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.

    Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. 

    There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. 

    Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

    I had looked at a list of guys who led innings pitched. Either I missed that, or the list I looked at was inaccurate.

    Musta missed it. 376 in '71 and 346 in '72. 

    There were 6-7 seasons with pitchers throwing ~340+ innings in just a couple year stretch there. 

    Burnes has 375 the last two years(the only years he's been over 59 IP). So...I stand behind the point. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

    Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

    Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

    What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

    Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    3 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    What was Hiura’s wRC+ in his first MLB season? 139 with 348 PA.

    Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

    Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

    What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

    Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    13 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

    ranked by what? He shortly will lose his prospect rating as he accumulates ABs next year.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    13 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    So where do you believe Henderson will be ranked (as a non-pitcher) in the next 6 years?

    ranked by what? He shortly will lose his prospect rating as he accumulates ABs next year.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

    BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

    deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
    Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
    Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
    Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
    Kodai Senga 3/72
    That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
    Eovaldi 4/90

    That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

    How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

    BTW, the athletic came out with their projected salarires(it was Bowden, so...take it with the appropriate grain of salt, but I do think he's pretty accurate here). 

    deGrom NYY-2/90M Player Option after Yr 1
    Verlander 3/135(I swear, I'm not Jim Bowden...really, please believe me). 
    Rodon was...5 for 144 IIRC. 
    Edwin Diaz 4/65(that's insanely low IMO...I think he ends up at ~100M...which is an overpay). 
    Kodai Senga 3/72
    That's seems high to me. No posting fee, so that's good. But you're also taking quite a bit of risk. But he has ELECTRIC stuff. 
    Eovaldi 4/90

    That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

    How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

    How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

    Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

    That deGrom contract is interesting. The Verlander one is pretty LOL both in dollars and length. That Senga does seem pretty high, especially at those few years. And yeah, that Diaz number is less than what Liam Hendriks got.

    How does Bowden even have a job at The Athletic? Honest question. 

    Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

    Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

    Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

    What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

    Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

    Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

    Every answer to why a prospect who's already produced at the MLB level cannot be, "but Hiura." 

    Gunnar Henderson is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball for a reason. 

    What does Keston Hiura have to do with Gunnar Henderson? And what possible reason do you "seriously doubt," he'll be a top 10 SS in the next 6 years?

    Also, Hiura was NEVER the prospect Henderson was. 

    Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

    Henderson is a franchise lynchpin for them alongside Rutschman. They have no reason to trade 6 years of him, regardless of whether he becomes a shortstop or third baseman, for 2 years of Burnes, as elite as he is. Hence, why he's more valuable according to BTV. Prospect lists aren't just about talent, they're also about the likelihood of success, A #1 prospect such as Henderson is not just incredibly talented, but he's also extremely likely, moreso than other prospects, to fulfill his potential. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    2 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

    Obviously I brought up Hiura due to your “125 wRC+in a 130 PA” comment in a previous post.  Anyone can manipulate stats with a small sample size of 130 PA. The fact is neither you nor I have any idea what Henderson will accomplish in his career. I would rather have a much more certain player like a Cy Young winner in Burns at a much more valuable position than a prospect like Henderson who you stated with a minimum of 130 PA. Pay attention please.

    Henderson is a franchise lynchpin for them alongside Rutschman. They have no reason to trade 6 years of him, regardless of whether he becomes a shortstop or third baseman, for 2 years of Burnes, as elite as he is. Hence, why he's more valuable according to BTV. Prospect lists aren't just about talent, they're also about the likelihood of success, A #1 prospect such as Henderson is not just incredibly talented, but he's also extremely likely, moreso than other prospects, to fulfill his potential. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

    Cause he failed so totally at being a GM that he had no place else to run. 

    I’m sure there are loads of former front office execs I’d love to hear talk about baseball. As it turns out, Jim Bowden ain’t one of them, yet he’s the one with the job. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites




    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...