Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

3 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I would consider trading Burns to Baltimore for:

Gunnar Henderson-SS

Grayson Rodriguez-RHP

DL Hall-LHP

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

4 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

Yeah, there is a scenario (unlikely) where they include Rodriguez, but Henderson, like Rutschman, is off-limits. He's the top prospect in baseball right now. 

4 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

Yeah, there is a scenario (unlikely) where they include Rodriguez, but Henderson, like Rutschman, is off-limits. He's the top prospect in baseball right now. 

My preference is to bring back Burnes and Woodruff for 2023, and be willing to trade them at the deadline  if the season goes to hell. Try to improve at the margins (relief pitching, at least) while giving a few rookies their shot.

But it's equally reasonable to sell off Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames this offseason, if we get a good offer. The thing is, there might be 6 teams that have the need and the prospect capital to swing the trade; and at most three of them might actually make an offer if Arnold lets them know the boys are available. If we're lucky, one of them makes an offer that works for us.

BTW, the author of the piece seems to think it's 2023. Holliday was drafted this season, and Burnes was CY last season (I guess he's still the reigning C.Y.).

My preference is to bring back Burnes and Woodruff for 2023, and be willing to trade them at the deadline  if the season goes to hell. Try to improve at the margins (relief pitching, at least) while giving a few rookies their shot.

But it's equally reasonable to sell off Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames this offseason, if we get a good offer. The thing is, there might be 6 teams that have the need and the prospect capital to swing the trade; and at most three of them might actually make an offer if Arnold lets them know the boys are available. If we're lucky, one of them makes an offer that works for us.

BTW, the author of the piece seems to think it's 2023. Holliday was drafted this season, and Burnes was CY last season (I guess he's still the reigning C.Y.).

39 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

I don't put a whole lot of stock into that BTV...BUT if you were a team like Baltimore who came off a 3 year run where they lost 108, 115 and 110 games in 3 full seasons(excluding the Covid shortened season) and then last year won 83 games in the toughest division in baseball...would YOU be excited to not only give up a pitcher who has Randy Johnson(sick of using deGrom as a comp) like stuff but as a RHed pitcher, PLUS the #2 overall prospect in baseball, PLUS this other pitcher who could be a future ace, but if he's not in DL Hall, will almost certainly be an elite SU/Closer?

18 years vs 2 years. 

If we're going to look at a 3-4 player package, we'd be better off maybe targeting one MLB ready prospect and then a couple more who are in A ball with a couple big tools. A big fastball, a 60 hit tool. Whatever. Tyler Black type prospects with higher upsides. Misiorowski type pitchers who maybe have 100 innings in. 

39 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

Henderson has more trade value by himself than Burnes does (BTV). 

I don't put a whole lot of stock into that BTV...BUT if you were a team like Baltimore who came off a 3 year run where they lost 108, 115 and 110 games in 3 full seasons(excluding the Covid shortened season) and then last year won 83 games in the toughest division in baseball...would YOU be excited to not only give up a pitcher who has Randy Johnson(sick of using deGrom as a comp) like stuff but as a RHed pitcher, PLUS the #2 overall prospect in baseball, PLUS this other pitcher who could be a future ace, but if he's not in DL Hall, will almost certainly be an elite SU/Closer?

18 years vs 2 years. 

If we're going to look at a 3-4 player package, we'd be better off maybe targeting one MLB ready prospect and then a couple more who are in A ball with a couple big tools. A big fastball, a 60 hit tool. Whatever. Tyler Black type prospects with higher upsides. Misiorowski type pitchers who maybe have 100 innings in. 

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

First, the $180m was for his six FA years, essentially making it an eight year contract. I was ignoring the arb seasons. In any actual contract, I'd hope the Brewers front-load those arb years to reduce the later years' payroll burden.

How much do you think Burnes is going to make in free agency? And how many years do you think he's going to get?

Gerrit Cole signed a nine year, $324m contract after the 2019 season. That's a $36m AAV and it's now going on three seasons old.

Burnes is going to ask for big money and big years. If the Brewers strike now, six years is a bargain. Come this time next year, a six year extension will be off the table, Burnes will be looking for 7-10.

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. 

And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. 

So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent.

The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. 

So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. 

But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. 

Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency. 

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

First, the $180m was for his six FA years, essentially making it an eight year contract. I was ignoring the arb seasons. In any actual contract, I'd hope the Brewers front-load those arb years to reduce the later years' payroll burden.

How much do you think Burnes is going to make in free agency? And how many years do you think he's going to get?

Gerrit Cole signed a nine year, $324m contract after the 2019 season. That's a $36m AAV and it's now going on three seasons old.

Burnes is going to ask for big money and big years. If the Brewers strike now, six years is a bargain. Come this time next year, a six year extension will be off the table, Burnes will be looking for 7-10.

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. 

And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. 

So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent.

The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. 

So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. 

But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. 

Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency. 

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. 

And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. 

So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent.

The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. 

So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. 

But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. 

Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency. 

I saw a report today (not sure how true) that the Woodruff is the pitcher teams think may be dealt and that the Brewers intend on keeping Burnes at this time and negotiating an extension with him. It's interesting, because, financial considerations aside, Burnes, at 28, is the one you'd ideally sign-long term, while Woodruff, who will turn 30 by spring training, is the one you'd prefer to trade. So, IF TRUE, maybe they anticipate something closer to what you're saying, i.e. a DeGrom-type extension at 5 years, $130 million+, which would allow him to reenter free agency and sign a second big-money deal at 33. That is not out of the Brewers' range....

Also, I would point to the extension Jose Ramirez signed with Cleveland just before the season. Different positions and ages, yes, but Ramirez was looking at a huge deal in free agency and instead re-upped one year-out with the only club he has ever known for 5 years, $124 million. It is entirely possible that Burnes could decide to do something similar. 

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Gerrit Cole's deal is one deal and an aberration. It'd be like using Aaron Nola's 4/45M extension with a team option coming off a ~10 WAR season at the same point Burnes is at. 

And sure, in two years I guess 6/180 would make sense. But that's 400+ innings and 2 years away. The fact that he's still got service time left means he's obviously not getting the same value as pitchers who are free to sign with any team. 

So asking how much I think he WILL get in 2 years...I have almost no idea. I expect deGrom, Verlander to get 3 year deals, possibly with vesting options. I would expect Rodon to get a 5 or 6 year deal in the 140M range, but again, he's a free agent.

The deal deGrom signed when he was 2 years away from Free Agency should be the starting point for Burnes. ~5/137.5. But deGrom was far more dominant and just better in every way than Burnes at the time. 

So I think 5/130 would be a very fair deal to buy out his two arbitration years(~30M). That'd make it 3 years ~100M. 

But teams are going away from the long deals for pitchers. 6 years is on the long end for most pitchers. 

Burnes can look for a 10 year deal...I sincerely doubt any MLB team is going to give it to him. That'd be the longest deal a pitcher has signed in modern free agency. 

I saw a report today (not sure how true) that the Woodruff is the pitcher teams think may be dealt and that the Brewers intend on keeping Burnes at this time and negotiating an extension with him. It's interesting, because, financial considerations aside, Burnes, at 28, is the one you'd ideally sign-long term, while Woodruff, who will turn 30 by spring training, is the one you'd prefer to trade. So, IF TRUE, maybe they anticipate something closer to what you're saying, i.e. a DeGrom-type extension at 5 years, $130 million+, which would allow him to reenter free agency and sign a second big-money deal at 33. That is not out of the Brewers' range....

Also, I would point to the extension Jose Ramirez signed with Cleveland just before the season. Different positions and ages, yes, but Ramirez was looking at a huge deal in free agency and instead re-upped one year-out with the only club he has ever known for 5 years, $124 million. It is entirely possible that Burnes could decide to do something similar. 

25 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

BTW...the author considers the 2022 season over for the Brewers. So Burnes' Cy Young was 2 seasons ago to the author.

I kinda think most people do.

I guess you could have said in the last draft...although, if I was going to describe when the Packers picked Quay Walker, I'd say "last years draft." 

25 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

BTW...the author considers the 2022 season over for the Brewers. So Burnes' Cy Young was 2 seasons ago to the author.

I kinda think most people do.

I guess you could have said in the last draft...although, if I was going to describe when the Packers picked Quay Walker, I'd say "last years draft." 

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I saw a report today (not sure how true) that the Woodruff is the pitcher teams think may be dealt and that the Brewers intend on keeping Burnes at this time and negotiating an extension with him. It's interesting, because, financial considerations aside, Burnes, at 28, is the one you'd ideally sign-long term, while Woodruff, who will turn 30 by spring training, is the one you'd prefer to trade. So, IF TRUE, maybe they anticipate something closer to what you're saying, i.e. a DeGrom-type extension at 5 years, $130 million+, which would allow him to reenter free agency and sign a second big-money deal at 33. That is not out of the Brewers' range....

Also, I would point to the extension Jose Ramirez signed with Cleveland just before the season. Different positions and ages, yes, but Ramirez was looking at a huge deal in free agency and instead re-upped one year-out with the only club he has ever known for 5 years, $124 million. It is entirely possible that Burnes could do something similar. 

 

That is encouraging. Woody is coming off a big year, he's a exceptional comp for Castillo.

I'd just be talking to all 3 on what they're consider signing an extension for. I'd have a range in which I'm comfortable with. Woody I'd start at 6/110 and use Castillo as a comp, but then go to 5/110 with an TO/vesting.

Burnes 5/115 go to 5/130 with a mutual option to maybe bring it to 135.

Willy...I'd come in low there. 6/90. I just don't know exactly what you're getting and he'd likely turn that down. 

I'd also TRY and get these done ASAP with the pitchers. I've said I thought you'd see deGrom getting up to 45M a year over 3 years. A 3 year 135 type deal is not unrealistic given his talent, team and ownership. 

Verlander I think will get a Bauer type deal but beat it by ~5M a year. 

So I think it makes a lot of sense for Burnes to sign that first deal, get that security and then he'll only be 33 when he's a FA again. We run out 6 man rotations now. It's not the 70s where your Cy Young winner throws 350 innings, it's not even the 80s or 90s where they'll throw 280 or 130 pitches. Burnes throws 110 at most and then they ease off him the next day. 

More effort, so maybe, as I said, he needs TJ. We just saw Verlander get TJ, come back and have arguably the best year of his career ERA wise and his FB velo is better in 2022 than it was in 2012. 

A pitcher feels a twinge in his shoulder, they sit them down for a month or longer. 

A pitcher with his stuff, all the pitchers he has, I see no reasonhe can't throw until he's ~40. 

I also believe a 3 year deal with an inflated AAV is more palatable to teams than long deals. They'd rather pay more for a pitchers prime than risk it and hope for the best at the end of the deal. 

But we'll have to wait and see how this off-season plays out first. 

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

BTW...the author considers the 2022 season over for the Brewers. So Burnes' Cy Young was 2 seasons ago to the author.

Burnes' CY was announced LESS than ONE year ago. So you're just wrong. It is great that you're so brave to make a big deal out of this. There is a mathematical convention for the "timing of things during a year," and your belief is not consistent with that. So, admit your mistake and move on. Be a better man.

36 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

So I think it makes a lot of sense for Burnes to sign that first deal, get that security and then he'll only be 33 when he's a FA again. We run out 6 man rotations now. It's not the 70s where your Cy Young winner throws 350 innings, it's not even the 80s or 90s where they'll throw 280 or 130 pitches. Burnes throws 110 at most and then they ease off him the next day. 

The only pitcher to pitch 350 innings since 1946 is knuckleballer Wilbur Wood.

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

The only pitcher to pitch 350 innings since 1946 is knuckleballer Wilbur Wood.

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

The only pitcher to pitch 350 innings since 1946 is knuckleballer Wilbur Wood.

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

The point is that inaccuracy sucks.

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

The point is that inaccuracy sucks.