Is Now the Right Time to Trade Corbin Burnes?

Tim Muma · November 4, 2022

29 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Also, why on earth would the Brewers want Santander and/or Mullins? Like this team needs more outfielders, especially ones that are in their late 20s and are already arbitration-eligible.

Let's keep in mind that after the 2017 season, a majority of fans thought there was no reason to try to upgrade the outfield because they had Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. That season, Santana had hit 30 HR with an .875 OPS. Broxton had 20 HR/21 SB and seen as a top defensive CF. Phillips was seen as a future everyday outfielder with a cannon arm, and in 98 PA had a .276/.351/.448/.799 slash line. They also had Lewis Brinson as their #1 prospect - another outfielder.

When I suggested that November that the Brewers trade for Christian Yelich, I was roundly seen as insane. Not only did the Brewers trade for him, they also signed Cain to a big contract. The Brewers don't come within 1 game of the World Series in 2018 if they stood pat in the outfield...and who knows how the rest of the seasons went. Performance and potential are not always what they seem, nor are they linear.

If the organization believes Mullins (yes, regressed last year, but 27 years old a season removed from a 30/30 season, .878 OPS) and 3 top BAL prospects puts them in a better position, they should do it. They could then trade Renfroe and/or one of the outfield prospects for other pieces they want/need. In the end it comes down to making the right decisions because not every prospect will pan out, and sometimes trading one is worth more than keeping him. I'm just saying...it's important to be open to any and all possibilities.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

What I suspect is going to happen is they'll figure out the best trade offers for both Burnes and Woodruff, trade one and sign the other to an extension in the 5 year/$100 M range.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

What I suspect is going to happen is they'll figure out the best trade offers for both Burnes and Woodruff, trade one and sign the other to an extension in the 5 year/$100 M range.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

53 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I would actually try to buyout the next three years for Burnes something like 3 years $60-80 million dollar range. Also try to extend Woodruff with a similar offer. I doubt the Brewers would ever receive fair value for either in a trade so might as well hang on and be a playoff team for a couple of more years.

That's a huge overpay for either Burnes or Woodruff. They each have two years of arbitration left and those years should total less than $30 million combined for both years for either one.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

53 minutes ago, Hacksaw Jim Duggan said:

I would actually try to buyout the next three years for Burnes something like 3 years $60-80 million dollar range. Also try to extend Woodruff with a similar offer. I doubt the Brewers would ever receive fair value for either in a trade so might as well hang on and be a playoff team for a couple of more years.

That's a huge overpay for either Burnes or Woodruff. They each have two years of arbitration left and those years should total less than $30 million combined for both years for either one.

Brewcrew82 · November 4, 2022

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

Let's keep in mind that after the 2017 season, a majority of fans thought there was no reason to try to upgrade the outfield because they had Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. That season, Santana had hit 30 HR with an .875 OPS. Broxton had 20 HR/21 SB and seen as a top defensive CF. Phillips was seen as a future everyday outfielder with a cannon arm, and in 98 PA had a .276/.351/.448/.799 slash line. They also had Lewis Brinson as their #1 prospect - another outfielder.

When I suggested that November that the Brewers trade for Christian Yelich, I was roundly seen as insane. Not only did the Brewers trade for him, they also signed Cain to a big contract. The Brewers don't come within 1 game of the World Series in 2018 if they stood pat in the outfield...and who knows how the rest of the seasons went. Performance and potential are not always what they seem, nor are they linear.

If the organization believes Mullins (yes, regressed last year, but 27 years old a season removed from a 30/30 season, .878 OPS) and 3 top BAL prospects puts them in a better position, they should do it. They could then trade Renfroe and/or one of the outfield prospects for other pieces they want/need. In the end it comes down to making the right decisions because not every prospect will pan out, and sometimes trading one is worth more than keeping him. I'm just saying...it's important to be open to any and all possibilities.

This is an entirely different situation than in 2017-2018. That club was trying to transition to a contender and added Yelich and Cain to power that transition in light of a relative surplus of payroll space. This club, as presently constituted, is already a contender and is looking to continue its run of success in the long-term, yet also has to deal with a huge contingent of arbitration eligible players that is beginning to really push the envelope in terms of payroll. Mullins and Santander, while above average players, aren't needle movers contention-wise given that we would be parting with statistically the best pitcher in baseball to acquire them. And it's not like they would provide payroll relief either given that both are now arbitration eligible and will be getting more expensive by the year. Mullins, in particular, could be a real danger as he's going to get paid a lot due to his 2021 season, despite that season being a real statistical outlier relative to his career numbers and batted-ball metrics. I'm not even sure that Santander is a guaranteed upgrade over any of our current outfielders, given his atrocious defensive stats. You say that it comes down to making the "right decisions". Well, I can tell you right away that trading Burnes for a package headlined by/involving Mullins or Santander isn't the right decision and could really set this franchise back in the long-term.

If we're going to trade an absolute premium of a talent such as Burnes with two whole years of control left, we're going to need to receive premium talent in return. So, start with Rodriguez or Holliday or proceed to hang up the phone as nobody else the Orioles could give us (other than Rutschman or Henderson) will make a trade of Burnes worth it imo.

Brewcrew82 · November 4, 2022

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

Let's keep in mind that after the 2017 season, a majority of fans thought there was no reason to try to upgrade the outfield because they had Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. That season, Santana had hit 30 HR with an .875 OPS. Broxton had 20 HR/21 SB and seen as a top defensive CF. Phillips was seen as a future everyday outfielder with a cannon arm, and in 98 PA had a .276/.351/.448/.799 slash line. They also had Lewis Brinson as their #1 prospect - another outfielder.

When I suggested that November that the Brewers trade for Christian Yelich, I was roundly seen as insane. Not only did the Brewers trade for him, they also signed Cain to a big contract. The Brewers don't come within 1 game of the World Series in 2018 if they stood pat in the outfield...and who knows how the rest of the seasons went. Performance and potential are not always what they seem, nor are they linear.

If the organization believes Mullins (yes, regressed last year, but 27 years old a season removed from a 30/30 season, .878 OPS) and 3 top BAL prospects puts them in a better position, they should do it. They could then trade Renfroe and/or one of the outfield prospects for other pieces they want/need. In the end it comes down to making the right decisions because not every prospect will pan out, and sometimes trading one is worth more than keeping him. I'm just saying...it's important to be open to any and all possibilities.

This is an entirely different situation than in 2017-2018. That club was trying to transition to a contender and added Yelich and Cain to power that transition in light of a relative surplus of payroll space. This club, as presently constituted, is already a contender and is looking to continue its run of success in the long-term, yet also has to deal with a huge contingent of arbitration eligible players that is beginning to really push the envelope in terms of payroll. Mullins and Santander, while above average players, aren't needle movers contention-wise given that we would be parting with statistically the best pitcher in baseball to acquire them. And it's not like they would provide payroll relief either given that both are now arbitration eligible and will be getting more expensive by the year. Mullins, in particular, could be a real danger as he's going to get paid a lot due to his 2021 season, despite that season being a real statistical outlier relative to his career numbers and batted-ball metrics. I'm not even sure that Santander is a guaranteed upgrade over any of our current outfielders, given his atrocious defensive stats. You say that it comes down to making the "right decisions". Well, I can tell you right away that trading Burnes for a package headlined by/involving Mullins or Santander isn't the right decision and could really set this franchise back in the long-term.

If we're going to trade an absolute premium of a talent such as Burnes with two whole years of control left, we're going to need to receive premium talent in return. So, start with Rodriguez or Holliday or proceed to hang up the phone as nobody else the Orioles could give us (other than Rutschman or Henderson) will make a trade of Burnes worth it imo.

Tim Muma · November 4, 2022

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is an entirely different situation than in 2017-2018. That club was trying to transition to a contender and added Yelich and Cain to power that transition in light of a relative surplus of payroll space. This club, as presently constituted, is already a contender and is looking to continue its run of success in the long-term, yet also has to deal with a huge contingent of arbitration eligible players that is beginning to really push the envelope in terms of payroll. Mullins and Santander, while above average players, aren't needle movers contention-wise given that we would be parting with statistically the best pitcher in baseball to acquire them. And it's not like they would provide payroll relief either given that both are now arbitration eligible and will be getting more expensive by the year. Mullins, in particular, could be a real danger as he's going to get paid a lot due to his 2021 season, despite that season being a real statistical outlier relative to his career numbers and batted-ball metrics. I'm not even sure that Santander is a guaranteed upgrade over any of our current outfielders, given his atrocious defensive stats. You say that it comes down to making the "right decisions". Well, I can tell you right away that trading Burnes for a package headlined by/involving Mullins or Santander isn't the right decision and could really set this franchise back in the long-term.

If we're going to trade an absolute premium of a talent such as Burnes with two whole years of control left, we're going to need to receive premium talent in return. So, start with Rodriguez or Holliday or proceed to hang up the phone as nobody else the Orioles could give us (other than Rutschman or Henderson) will make a trade of Burnes worth it imo.

There is risk to every move. Mullins certainly carries risk and I agree you want some of the BAL prospects who MIGHT be off limits. At the same time, the Brewers might feel their best option is a trade to BAL that seems light, because they also make a separate move that will be a better than thought return for one of their own prospects and/or Renfroe. There's no guarantee the Brewers get a "better deal" than Mullins and 3 prospects. Do they keep him for a year (or 1/2 year) and try again? Risk getting less value later because of injury, decline, fewer years left, etc.?

I don't think they SHOULD necessarily trade him now or for a package from Baltimore. The Texas and Baltimore mentions were examples of teams that would make sense because they have the prospects, the hunger to push toward competing, and the money to extend Burnes.

Tim Muma · November 4, 2022

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is an entirely different situation than in 2017-2018. That club was trying to transition to a contender and added Yelich and Cain to power that transition in light of a relative surplus of payroll space. This club, as presently constituted, is already a contender and is looking to continue its run of success in the long-term, yet also has to deal with a huge contingent of arbitration eligible players that is beginning to really push the envelope in terms of payroll. Mullins and Santander, while above average players, aren't needle movers contention-wise given that we would be parting with statistically the best pitcher in baseball to acquire them. And it's not like they would provide payroll relief either given that both are now arbitration eligible and will be getting more expensive by the year. Mullins, in particular, could be a real danger as he's going to get paid a lot due to his 2021 season, despite that season being a real statistical outlier relative to his career numbers and batted-ball metrics. I'm not even sure that Santander is a guaranteed upgrade over any of our current outfielders, given his atrocious defensive stats. You say that it comes down to making the "right decisions". Well, I can tell you right away that trading Burnes for a package headlined by/involving Mullins or Santander isn't the right decision and could really set this franchise back in the long-term.

If we're going to trade an absolute premium of a talent such as Burnes with two whole years of control left, we're going to need to receive premium talent in return. So, start with Rodriguez or Holliday or proceed to hang up the phone as nobody else the Orioles could give us (other than Rutschman or Henderson) will make a trade of Burnes worth it imo.

There is risk to every move. Mullins certainly carries risk and I agree you want some of the BAL prospects who MIGHT be off limits. At the same time, the Brewers might feel their best option is a trade to BAL that seems light, because they also make a separate move that will be a better than thought return for one of their own prospects and/or Renfroe. There's no guarantee the Brewers get a "better deal" than Mullins and 3 prospects. Do they keep him for a year (or 1/2 year) and try again? Risk getting less value later because of injury, decline, fewer years left, etc.?

I don't think they SHOULD necessarily trade him now or for a package from Baltimore. The Texas and Baltimore mentions were examples of teams that would make sense because they have the prospects, the hunger to push toward competing, and the money to extend Burnes.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

If Mullins and some of Baltimore's lesser prospects is the best deal out there, they should just keep Burnes. That would be trading him just to trade him.

Lajitas · November 4, 2022

If Mullins and some of Baltimore's lesser prospects is the best deal out there, they should just keep Burnes. That would be trading him just to trade him.

Brewcrew82 · November 4, 2022

11 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

At the same time, the Brewers might feel their best option is a trade to BAL that seems light, because they also make a separate move that will be a better than thought return for one of their own prospects and/or Renfroe. There's no guarantee the Brewers get a "better deal" than Mullins and 3 prospects. Do they keep him for a year (or 1/2 year) and try again? Risk getting less value later because of injury, decline, fewer years left, etc.?

This is so the wrong perspective and a potentially lethal one to this franchise were Arnold and Attanasio to adopt it. Accept a "light" return for Burnes, the best statistical pitcher in baseball over the past three years with two whole seasons of control, because MAYBE they might be able to scrounge out a little more value than expected in a trade of Renfroe, Ruiz, Mitchell, etc.??? Though I like Ruiz and, especially, Gasser, did we learn absolutely nothing from the Hader trade and this year's deadline??

If the Brewers can't get a better deal than Mullins and some lesser prospects, then ride full-steam into next season with the best 1-2 rotation punch in baseball (assuming DeGrom does leave NY).

Brewcrew82 · November 4, 2022

11 minutes ago, Tim Muma said:

At the same time, the Brewers might feel their best option is a trade to BAL that seems light, because they also make a separate move that will be a better than thought return for one of their own prospects and/or Renfroe. There's no guarantee the Brewers get a "better deal" than Mullins and 3 prospects. Do they keep him for a year (or 1/2 year) and try again? Risk getting less value later because of injury, decline, fewer years left, etc.?

This is so the wrong perspective and a potentially lethal one to this franchise were Arnold and Attanasio to adopt it. Accept a "light" return for Burnes, the best statistical pitcher in baseball over the past three years with two whole seasons of control, because MAYBE they might be able to scrounge out a little more value than expected in a trade of Renfroe, Ruiz, Mitchell, etc.??? Though I like Ruiz and, especially, Gasser, did we learn absolutely nothing from the Hader trade and this year's deadline??

If the Brewers can't get a better deal than Mullins and some lesser prospects, then ride full-steam into next season with the best 1-2 rotation punch in baseball (assuming DeGrom does leave NY).

Tim Muma · November 4, 2022

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is so the wrong perspective and a potentially lethal one to this franchise were Arnold and Attanasio to adopt it. Accept a "light" return for Burnes, the best statistical pitcher in baseball over the past three years with two whole seasons of control, because MAYBE they might be able to scrounge out a little more value than expected in a trade of Renfroe, Ruiz, Mitchell, etc.??? Though I like Ruiz and, especially, Gasser, did we learn absolutely nothing from the Hader trade??

If the Brewers can't get a better deal than Mullins and some lesser prospects, then ride full-steam into next season with the best 1-2 rotation punch in baseball (assuming DeGrom does leave NY).

That is fine if your opinion is that it would be the "wrong" perspective. Without actual names/players to discuss the value, it's impossible to make certain claims. I enjoy writing trade idea pieces, but I also acknowledge only the teams involved truly know what they feel is best, how they want to move forward, what risks are worth taking.

I'm one that will take proven MLB guys with team control, even with some risk and extra money. The Marlins take in the Yelich deal should be a warning, too. They thought they made out well. And Yelich wasn't an MVP at that point.

As for the idea that it's an entirely different situation. Maybe...but you say they are a contender. You would be content with their outfield being strong enough offensively as a contender? I guess we differ a bit there, too. I like Frelick a lot. I'm not a Mitchell fan. I need to see/learn more about Ruiz. Wiemer feels average. Chourino - we know the upside - but he's not here this season. My point still remains, people were extremely excited for Santana, Broxton & Phillips being there to lead the charge for years after 2017. I liked Santana (but he fizzled out). I did NOT like Broxton and thought Phillips was a 4th outfielder...hence I wanted Yelich. Brewers went with Cain, too, because they weren't sold on any of the 3 every day and long term.

In my world...I am intrigued by Westburg from Baltimore to play 3B. Maybe they can swing a deal with the Orioles that doesn't involve Burnes or Woodruff. IF they were to trade Burnes, I believe Texas would be far more likely, with the Dodgers always a possibility because of their player capital and willingness to go big. I'm also not opposed to keeping Burnes for now and seeing how 2023 plays out until the deadline and re-evaluate.

Tim Muma · November 4, 2022

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

This is so the wrong perspective and a potentially lethal one to this franchise were Arnold and Attanasio to adopt it. Accept a "light" return for Burnes, the best statistical pitcher in baseball over the past three years with two whole seasons of control, because MAYBE they might be able to scrounge out a little more value than expected in a trade of Renfroe, Ruiz, Mitchell, etc.??? Though I like Ruiz and, especially, Gasser, did we learn absolutely nothing from the Hader trade??

If the Brewers can't get a better deal than Mullins and some lesser prospects, then ride full-steam into next season with the best 1-2 rotation punch in baseball (assuming DeGrom does leave NY).

That is fine if your opinion is that it would be the "wrong" perspective. Without actual names/players to discuss the value, it's impossible to make certain claims. I enjoy writing trade idea pieces, but I also acknowledge only the teams involved truly know what they feel is best, how they want to move forward, what risks are worth taking.

I'm one that will take proven MLB guys with team control, even with some risk and extra money. The Marlins take in the Yelich deal should be a warning, too. They thought they made out well. And Yelich wasn't an MVP at that point.

As for the idea that it's an entirely different situation. Maybe...but you say they are a contender. You would be content with their outfield being strong enough offensively as a contender? I guess we differ a bit there, too. I like Frelick a lot. I'm not a Mitchell fan. I need to see/learn more about Ruiz. Wiemer feels average. Chourino - we know the upside - but he's not here this season. My point still remains, people were extremely excited for Santana, Broxton & Phillips being there to lead the charge for years after 2017. I liked Santana (but he fizzled out). I did NOT like Broxton and thought Phillips was a 4th outfielder...hence I wanted Yelich. Brewers went with Cain, too, because they weren't sold on any of the 3 every day and long term.

In my world...I am intrigued by Westburg from Baltimore to play 3B. Maybe they can swing a deal with the Orioles that doesn't involve Burnes or Woodruff. IF they were to trade Burnes, I believe Texas would be far more likely, with the Dodgers always a possibility because of their player capital and willingness to go big. I'm also not opposed to keeping Burnes for now and seeing how 2023 plays out until the deadline and re-evaluate.

wibadgers23 · November 4, 2022

I could see Texas being very aggressive in a pursuit of Burnes. They spent a ton of money last offseason on offense and could obviously use some upgrades to their pitching staff. I know it’s ranked high, but I’m not super in love with their farm system. Jung is a good fit because he plays 3B but I’m not crazy about anyone else.

wibadgers23 · November 4, 2022

I could see Texas being very aggressive in a pursuit of Burnes. They spent a ton of money last offseason on offense and could obviously use some upgrades to their pitching staff. I know it’s ranked high, but I’m not super in love with their farm system. Jung is a good fit because he plays 3B but I’m not crazy about anyone else.

Sixtolezcano · November 4, 2022

I would consider trading Burns to Baltimore for:

Gunnar Henderson-SS

Grayson Rodriguez-RHP

DL Hall-LHP

Sixtolezcano · November 4, 2022

I would consider trading Burns to Baltimore for:

Gunnar Henderson-SS

Grayson Rodriguez-RHP

DL Hall-LHP

Hopper · November 4, 2022

1 hour ago, Lajitas said:

What I suspect is going to happen is they'll figure out the best trade offers for both Burnes and Woodruff, trade one and sign the other to an extension in the 5 year/$100 M range.

I just don't think either will sign those deals. Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday! There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer. I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

Hopper · November 4, 2022

1 hour ago, Lajitas said:

What I suspect is going to happen is they'll figure out the best trade offers for both Burnes and Woodruff, trade one and sign the other to an extension in the 5 year/$100 M range.

I just don't think either will sign those deals. Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday! There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer. I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

wiguy94 · November 4, 2022

34 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I would consider trading Burns to Baltimore for:

Gunnar Henderson-SS

Grayson Rodriguez-RHP

DL Hall-LHP

Baltimore laughs Arnold off the phone if he suggests that.

wiguy94 · November 4, 2022

34 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

I would consider trading Burns to Baltimore for:

Gunnar Henderson-SS

Grayson Rodriguez-RHP

DL Hall-LHP

Baltimore laughs Arnold off the phone if he suggests that.

Brock Beauchamp · November 4, 2022

6 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I just don't think either will sign those deals. Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday! There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer. I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

There might be a remote chance to get 1-2 years of FA Woodruff if the Brewers really incentivize his remaining two years of arbitration.

Burnes, nope. I don't see him accepting anything less than a long-term deal that goes well over $100m in free agent money.

Brock Beauchamp · November 4, 2022

6 minutes ago, Hopper said:

I just don't think either will sign those deals. Burnes is going to get a BIG payday if he doesn't fall off a cliff in the next 2 years, I mean a BIG payday! There isn't a chance in hell he takes that offer. I don't think we get Woodruff for less than 25 million per season either.

There might be a remote chance to get 1-2 years of FA Woodruff if the Brewers really incentivize his remaining two years of arbitration.

Burnes, nope. I don't see him accepting anything less than a long-term deal that goes well over $100m in free agent money.

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