Is Eric Lauer the Starting Pitcher Most Likely Traded by the Brewers?

Undoubtedly, Eric Lauer has provided terrific value for the Milwaukee Brewers over the past two seasons. Early in 2022, Lauer performed like a co-ace with lights-out stuff. Through his first seven starts, Lauer posted a 2.16 ERA with 54 strikeouts and only eight walks (6.75 K/BB). He would finish the season with a 3.69 ERA across 158.2 innings, second most on the Brewers behind Corbin Burnes. That's not the production from a pitcher you cast aside for the heck of it, especially with two seasons of control remaining.

On the flip side, one could point to several areas of concern that would lead the Brewers to try to sell high. Teams are always looking to add solid starting pitchers to their rosters, and a few clubs clearly need to upgrade their rotations. Lauer projects to make around $5.2 million in arbitration in 2023, which would also be appealing to front offices in search of an arm. So while Lauer isn't going to tilt the field as much as Burnes or Woodruff, he could offer more to a team than many of the free-agent options and at a much better cost - beyond the personnel they would have to give up.

Looking at his Statcast rankings from 2022, they don't jump out at you. A lot of average rankings could mean trouble in the near future, and stats further indicate negative regression is coming.

Aside from the many low percentiles, there are other reasons GM Matt Arnold could see now as the best time to move Lauer:

Home Runs Allowed
Lauer missed being a "qualified starter" by less than four innings, but it's close enough to see he would have tied for the second-worst home runs per nine innings (HR/9) rate in baseball. His 1.5 HR/9 in 2022 jumped from 1.3 HR/9 in 2021, as he permitted 27 long balls in 29 starts. If he increased his strikeout rate, you would feel slightly better about the gopher balls; however, with the pitch clock coming in 2023, many believe strikeouts will go down.

Too Many Free Passes
Among qualified pitchers in 2022, Lauer would have finished with the third-worst walks per nine innings rate (BB/9) at 3.3. This also declined from the previous season when he had a career-best 3.1 BB/9. That is quite telling on its own. The combo of a higher homer rate and walk rate is a recipe for disaster, though Lauer has managed to succeed despite this the last two seasons.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
FIP was created to assess better what a pitcher controls and how that would look as a separate "ERA." Because of his walks and home runs allowed, Lauer owned a 4.50 FIP in 2022. Comparing that to his 3.69 ERA, some argue he was fortunate, considering his FIP was almost a full point higher. He had a similar difference in 2021 (3.19 ERA vs. 4.04 FIP), which could mean one of two things. He either outperforms his FIP as a part of his skill set, or he is playing with fire and could soon blow up carrying the much higher FIP.

Clubhouse Presence
Look, I'm not in the clubhouse, and I am not pretending to know how Lauer's multiple strong statements came across to his teammates (or the front office). However, we all should acknowledge that some of his comments might have rubbed players and staff the wrong way when talking about the front office "sending the wrong message" with the Josh Hader trade and how they weren't trying to put the team in the best position to win in 2022. Even if what he says is true, most prefer keeping those conversations in-house, not blasted to the public. If he has burned some bridges or fractured the group somehow, Milwaukee could see it as addition by subtraction.

Eric Lauer summing up the current state of affairs for the Brewers:

"We're kind of sitting in a chaos cycle of where we're doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, and it's not something we can keep doing."

— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) June 11, 2022

The Brewers front office and ownership talks of wanting to win a World Series. They have the core in place. Now, they need to actually spend this offseason.

As one player put it: “It’s kind of time to put up or shut up.”https://t.co/55BU9WkIr3

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) November 7, 2022

Additional Rotation Options
If you're trading Lauer, you're likely keeping Burnes and Woodruff. Past those two, Milwaukee would still have Freddy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, and Houser to go with potential call-ups from the minors, such as Ethan Small and Robert Gasser (acquired in the Josh Hader trade). There are also many free-agent options that would be valuable mid-level starters the Brewers could afford to snatch for a couple of seasons. With one free agent arm, Milwaukee would essentially have eight arms for the rotation, not counting smaller moves the club is likely to make.

Those are a few reasons the Brewers would entertain trading Lauer this off-season. And despite those potential negatives, he should have enough value to another club to offer a fairly significant return - at least more than Houser. Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers are searching hard for starting pitcher options. Even clubs like the New York Mets (free agent losses) and Los Angeles Dodgers (injuries and prospects) could be in the market.

Could the Brewers offer Lauer and a prospect to the Blue Jays for one of their three catchers like Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk? Would the Orioles or Rangers be willing to part with one or two solid prospects from their terrific farm systems ranked first and sixth, respectively? Options abound across multiple teams, and the Brewers should be open to any creative paths to success in 2023 and beyond.