Is Brandon Woodruff a Brewers Trade Candidate?

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm even less confident than that. I'm not entirely convinced the Brewers have a Cleveland-esque pitching pipeline. Yeah, Burnes and Woodruff are outstanding but I'm going to need more data points before I'm convinced this organization can conjure good starting pitching at will, as Cleveland seems to do every season.

Used to develop hitting at will...then struck some gold with pitching, but now have zero hitters we developed. Looking at the minors now, it is heavily offensive and very very little for notable pitching. 

I suppose we can trade off Woody/Burnes for the pitching gap, but for perpetual contention you really should be doing pretty well developing both sides of the ball.

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we should wait until the organization has actually produced an everyday position player worth a lick, let alone an all-star, before labeling the development system "improved" and talking about "perpetual contention" upon trading the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history. Can we really be certain that a guy such as Garrett Mitchell won't turn into the next Hiura/Brett Phillips at the plate with a 41% K rate, SSA notwithstanding? 

Of course not, but that’s why we keep all 4 of our big-league ready OF’s until we figure out who the keepers are. 

And I did say “early returns”  with minor league hitting development since they’ve made numerous changes in that realm over the last 3 or so years with improvements all throughout the system with their hitters, especially this season.

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we should wait until the organization has actually produced an everyday position player worth a lick, let alone an all-star, before labeling the development system "improved" and talking about "perpetual contention" upon trading the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history. Can we really be certain that a guy such as Garrett Mitchell won't turn into the next Hiura/Brett Phillips at the plate with a 41% K rate, SSA notwithstanding? 

Of course not, but that’s why we keep all 4 of our big-league ready OF’s until we figure out who the keepers are. 

And I did say “early returns”  with minor league hitting development since they’ve made numerous changes in that realm over the last 3 or so years with improvements all throughout the system with their hitters, especially this season.

42 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Of course not, but that’s why we keep all 4 of our big-league ready OF’s until we figure out who the keepers are. 

And I did say “early returns”  with minor league hitting development since they’ve made numerous changes in that realm over the last 3 or so years with improvements all throughout the system with their hitters, especially this season.

Yeah, but what if you keep all 4 of your big-league ready outfielders and some of them then prove to be not up to snuff? It's not like you can then go ahead and trade them at that point as they'll have lost a lot of the trade value they had when they were still promising prospects. Part of the FO's job is to assess which of their prospects are likely to "hit" or "miss" based on their production, tools, and trajectory, and cash in on the value of the ones they think have greater potential to miss. A guy like Garrett Mitchell is a great example in light of the prevailing concerns (e.g., contact, power) during an otherwise impressive MLB cameo. The FO may conclude that his value is likely to never be higher, in which case, it would be prudent for them to explore potential trade options to help the team win now and in the future. Can you imagine how much better off we'd be as a franchise had we traded Hiura in the offseason of 2019-2020? 

While you did say "early returns", the fact still remains that the revamped hitting development system has proven NOTHING at the major league level, which, in the end, is all that matters. There's good reason to be skeptical when we've seen what they've done with a guy like Hiura, who was supposed to be as "can't miss" with the hit tool as it gets. And then throwing out a phrase like "perpetual contention" on top of it isn't exactly you qualifying your statement. 

42 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Of course not, but that’s why we keep all 4 of our big-league ready OF’s until we figure out who the keepers are. 

And I did say “early returns”  with minor league hitting development since they’ve made numerous changes in that realm over the last 3 or so years with improvements all throughout the system with their hitters, especially this season.

Yeah, but what if you keep all 4 of your big-league ready outfielders and some of them then prove to be not up to snuff? It's not like you can then go ahead and trade them at that point as they'll have lost a lot of the trade value they had when they were still promising prospects. Part of the FO's job is to assess which of their prospects are likely to "hit" or "miss" based on their production, tools, and trajectory, and cash in on the value of the ones they think have greater potential to miss. A guy like Garrett Mitchell is a great example in light of the prevailing concerns (e.g., contact, power) during an otherwise impressive MLB cameo. The FO may conclude that his value is likely to never be higher, in which case, it would be prudent for them to explore potential trade options to help the team win now and in the future. Can you imagine how much better off we'd be as a franchise had we traded Hiura in the offseason of 2019-2020? 

While you did say "early returns", the fact still remains that the revamped hitting development system has proven NOTHING at the major league level, which, in the end, is all that matters. There's good reason to be skeptical when we've seen what they've done with a guy like Hiura, who was supposed to be as "can't miss" with the hit tool as it gets. And then throwing out a phrase like "perpetual contention" on top of it isn't exactly you qualifying your statement. 

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we should wait until the organization has actually produced an everyday position player worth a lick, let alone an all-star, before labeling the development system "improved" and talking about "perpetual contention" upon trading the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history. Can we really be certain that a guy such as Garrett Mitchell won't turn into the next Hiura/Brett Phillips at the plate with a 41% K rate, SSA notwithstanding? 

No...we can't say that about Mitchell. Mitchell was also out 5th or 6th best prospect this past year. I feel pretty confident however that we can say that about Frelick and the farm system as a whole. 

You were just putting Chourio in a group just below Griffey Jr and squarely with Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr(pretty much anyone).

I don't think we actually do need to wait before we can label it improved. We're saw a clear, obvious about face in the way we go about drafting and developing position players, PLUS we've drastically changed our entire approach to Latin America and after signing Gilbert Lara, it wasn't until 2018 we were able to get back in and start spending after a 2 year period in which we lost our bonus money for going so far over to sign him.

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think we should wait until the organization has actually produced an everyday position player worth a lick, let alone an all-star, before labeling the development system "improved" and talking about "perpetual contention" upon trading the most dominant starting pitcher in franchise history. Can we really be certain that a guy such as Garrett Mitchell won't turn into the next Hiura/Brett Phillips at the plate with a 41% K rate, SSA notwithstanding? 

No...we can't say that about Mitchell. Mitchell was also out 5th or 6th best prospect this past year. I feel pretty confident however that we can say that about Frelick and the farm system as a whole. 

You were just putting Chourio in a group just below Griffey Jr and squarely with Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr(pretty much anyone).

I don't think we actually do need to wait before we can label it improved. We're saw a clear, obvious about face in the way we go about drafting and developing position players, PLUS we've drastically changed our entire approach to Latin America and after signing Gilbert Lara, it wasn't until 2018 we were able to get back in and start spending after a 2 year period in which we lost our bonus money for going so far over to sign him.

16 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

No...we can't say that about Mitchell. Mitchell was also out 5th or 6th best prospect this past year. I feel pretty confident however that we can say that about Frelick and the farm system as a whole. 

You were just putting Chourio in a group just below Griffey Jr and squarely with Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr(pretty much anyone).

I don't think we actually do need to wait before we can label it improved. We're saw a clear, obvious about face in the way we go about drafting and developing position players, PLUS we've drastically changed our entire approach to Latin America and after signing Gilbert Lara, it wasn't until 2018 we were able to get back in and start spending after a 2 year period in which we lost our bonus money for going so far over to sign him.

 

It's not me placing Chourio in that group, it's the stats at their respective ages and the industry experts who are doing that. There's a reason why he's a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball at all of 18 years of age...

All I'm saying is that we should wait to see how this upcoming group of prospects turns out before we talk about an improved hitting development system, let alone "perpetual contention". Keston Hiura looked like a sure thing, until he no longer was, largely due to the stupidity of our development staff in completely altering his previously pristine swing. 

16 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

No...we can't say that about Mitchell. Mitchell was also out 5th or 6th best prospect this past year. I feel pretty confident however that we can say that about Frelick and the farm system as a whole. 

You were just putting Chourio in a group just below Griffey Jr and squarely with Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr(pretty much anyone).

I don't think we actually do need to wait before we can label it improved. We're saw a clear, obvious about face in the way we go about drafting and developing position players, PLUS we've drastically changed our entire approach to Latin America and after signing Gilbert Lara, it wasn't until 2018 we were able to get back in and start spending after a 2 year period in which we lost our bonus money for going so far over to sign him.

 

It's not me placing Chourio in that group, it's the stats at their respective ages and the industry experts who are doing that. There's a reason why he's a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball at all of 18 years of age...

All I'm saying is that we should wait to see how this upcoming group of prospects turns out before we talk about an improved hitting development system, let alone "perpetual contention". Keston Hiura looked like a sure thing, until he no longer was, largely due to the stupidity of our development staff in completely altering his previously pristine swing. 

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, but what if you keep all 4 of your big-league ready outfielders and some of them then prove to be not up to snuff? It's not like you can then go ahead and trade them at that point as they'll have lost a lot of the trade value they had when they were still promising prospects. Part of the FO's job is to assess which of their prospects are likely to "hit" or "miss" based on their production, tools, and trajectory, and cash in on the value of the ones they think have greater potential to miss. A guy like Garrett Mitchell is a great example in light of the prevailing concerns (e.g., contact, power) during an otherwise impressive MLB cameo. The FO may conclude that his value is likely to never be higher, in which case, it would be prudent for them to explore potential trade options to help the team win now and in the future. Can you imagine how much better off we'd be as a franchise had we traded Hiura in the offseason of 2019-2020? 

While you did say "early returns", the fact still remains that the revamped hitting development system has proven NOTHING at the major league level, which, in the end, is all that matters. There's good reason to be skeptical when we've seen what they've done with a guy like Hiura, who was supposed to be as "can't miss" with the hit tool as it gets. And then throwing out a phrase like "perpetual contention" on top of it isn't exactly you qualifying your statement. 

I suppose I just have more faith in this organization as a whole than most. I see nothing but solid departments important to the long-term success of this franchise. 

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, but what if you keep all 4 of your big-league ready outfielders and some of them then prove to be not up to snuff? It's not like you can then go ahead and trade them at that point as they'll have lost a lot of the trade value they had when they were still promising prospects. Part of the FO's job is to assess which of their prospects are likely to "hit" or "miss" based on their production, tools, and trajectory, and cash in on the value of the ones they think have greater potential to miss. A guy like Garrett Mitchell is a great example in light of the prevailing concerns (e.g., contact, power) during an otherwise impressive MLB cameo. The FO may conclude that his value is likely to never be higher, in which case, it would be prudent for them to explore potential trade options to help the team win now and in the future. Can you imagine how much better off we'd be as a franchise had we traded Hiura in the offseason of 2019-2020? 

While you did say "early returns", the fact still remains that the revamped hitting development system has proven NOTHING at the major league level, which, in the end, is all that matters. There's good reason to be skeptical when we've seen what they've done with a guy like Hiura, who was supposed to be as "can't miss" with the hit tool as it gets. And then throwing out a phrase like "perpetual contention" on top of it isn't exactly you qualifying your statement. 

I suppose I just have more faith in this organization as a whole than most. I see nothing but solid departments important to the long-term success of this franchise. 

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not me placing Chourio in that group, it's the stats at their respective ages and the industry experts who are doing that. There's a reason why he's a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball at all of 18 years of age...

All I'm saying is that we should wait to see how this upcoming group of prospects turns out before we talk about an improved hitting development system, let alone "perpetual contention". Keston Hiura looked like a sure thing, until he no longer was, largely due to the stupidity of our development staff in completely altering his previously pristine swing. 

A Development staff that’s been revamped under Stearns/Arnold over the last 2-3 years. A development staff that has helped Mitchell and Wiemer lower their K rate and improve their walk rate. Turang start to realize some power the second-half of last season.

Look at all the hitters that improved as the minors season played out. I think every one of our top 8-9 position players finished the year strong in the box. I don’t think it’s an accident.

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not me placing Chourio in that group, it's the stats at their respective ages and the industry experts who are doing that. There's a reason why he's a consensus top 10 prospect in baseball at all of 18 years of age...

All I'm saying is that we should wait to see how this upcoming group of prospects turns out before we talk about an improved hitting development system, let alone "perpetual contention". Keston Hiura looked like a sure thing, until he no longer was, largely due to the stupidity of our development staff in completely altering his previously pristine swing. 

A Development staff that’s been revamped under Stearns/Arnold over the last 2-3 years. A development staff that has helped Mitchell and Wiemer lower their K rate and improve their walk rate. Turang start to realize some power the second-half of last season.

Look at all the hitters that improved as the minors season played out. I think every one of our top 8-9 position players finished the year strong in the box. I don’t think it’s an accident.

10 minutes ago, SF70 said:

A Development staff that’s been revamped under Stearns/Arnold over the last 2-3 years. A development staff that has helped Mitchell and Wiemer lower their K rate and improve their walk rate. Turang start to realize some power the second-half of last season.

Look at all the hitters that improved as the minors season played out. I think every one of our top 8-9 position players finished the year strong in the box. I don’t think it’s an accident.

I need to see evidence of improvement at the major league level, though. Mitchell had a nice cameo for instance, but showed a lot of swing and miss that will get seriously exploited by major league pitchers over the course of an entire season. And Wiemer still K'd over 30% for the majority of the season in AA, while his walk rate in AAA just returned to its 2021 levels. 

10 minutes ago, SF70 said:

A Development staff that’s been revamped under Stearns/Arnold over the last 2-3 years. A development staff that has helped Mitchell and Wiemer lower their K rate and improve their walk rate. Turang start to realize some power the second-half of last season.

Look at all the hitters that improved as the minors season played out. I think every one of our top 8-9 position players finished the year strong in the box. I don’t think it’s an accident.

I need to see evidence of improvement at the major league level, though. Mitchell had a nice cameo for instance, but showed a lot of swing and miss that will get seriously exploited by major league pitchers over the course of an entire season. And Wiemer still K'd over 30% for the majority of the season in AA, while his walk rate in AAA just returned to its 2021 levels. 

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I need to see evidence of improvement at the major league level, though. Mitchell had a nice cameo for instance, but showed a lot of swing and miss that will get seriously exploited by major league pitchers over the course of an entire season. And Wiemer still K'd over 30% for the majority of the season in AA, while his walk rate in AAA just returned to its 2021 levels. 

Wiemer could have been bothered by his thumb injury for longer than he let on. So, I’m more interested in his time with Nashville when we know he was 100% healthy.

Mitchell has only played in 160 professional games, including 28 with  the big-club, so looking forward to him hopefully staying healthy so we can see what he can do over a full season.

21 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I need to see evidence of improvement at the major league level, though. Mitchell had a nice cameo for instance, but showed a lot of swing and miss that will get seriously exploited by major league pitchers over the course of an entire season. And Wiemer still K'd over 30% for the majority of the season in AA, while his walk rate in AAA just returned to its 2021 levels. 

Wiemer could have been bothered by his thumb injury for longer than he let on. So, I’m more interested in his time with Nashville when we know he was 100% healthy.

Mitchell has only played in 160 professional games, including 28 with  the big-club, so looking forward to him hopefully staying healthy so we can see what he can do over a full season.

27 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Wiemer could have been bothered by his thumb injury for longer than he let on. So, I’m more interested in his time with Nashville when we know he was 100% healthy.

Mitchell has only played in 160 professional games, including 28 with  the big-club, so looking forward to him hopefully staying healthy so we can see what he can do over a full season.

Again, bottom line is I need to see evidence of improved hitter development at the major league level. I do think we're headed in the right direction, though, and am particularly excited to see what a pure contact hitter like Sal Frelick can bring to the team. 

27 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Wiemer could have been bothered by his thumb injury for longer than he let on. So, I’m more interested in his time with Nashville when we know he was 100% healthy.

Mitchell has only played in 160 professional games, including 28 with  the big-club, so looking forward to him hopefully staying healthy so we can see what he can do over a full season.

Again, bottom line is I need to see evidence of improved hitter development at the major league level. I do think we're headed in the right direction, though, and am particularly excited to see what a pure contact hitter like Sal Frelick can bring to the team. 

The reality is that we are set to lose Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Houser and Adames after the 2024 season unless they are traded or extended. I am skeptical on extensions for either Burnes or Woodruff, as Burnes will be too expensive and at Woodruff's age he will probably want an extension longer than I'd be comfortable giving.

If we're looking at "not pissing off the fans," would the fans be less upset if we trade both of them after '23 than they would if we trade one this offseason and one next? I think not, and I really think fans will be mad if we let 80% of our starting rotation and our starting SS walk for nothing after '24. That's a route the team can't even consider. 

It's going to be a tough road, but I think the best chance of maintaining "continued competitiveness" without a rebuild period will be to trade one of the "big 2" this offseason, and one next offseason. Whatever way we go, we'll have to rely on young players both from our current system and from trades. 

So, my opinion (which probably isn't worth much) is that they will dangle both of Burnes and Woodruff on the market and take the offer that makes the most sense while retaining the other. They'll go into next season with a still-strong rotation (Burnes or Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby a group including Houser fighting for #5), some rookie starters (Mitchell, Turang, Frelick), and some positions hopefully upgraded by the aforementioned trade. They should also have some money to spend on upgrades with the subtraction of some decent-sized obligations (Burnes/Woodruff, Hader, Cain, Wong) off the books.

I think they'll still be in contention for a division title with this team, but if not they'll start the sell-off next trade deadline, with the remainder of the pending FAs traded away before the start of the '24 season.

The reality is that we are set to lose Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Houser and Adames after the 2024 season unless they are traded or extended. I am skeptical on extensions for either Burnes or Woodruff, as Burnes will be too expensive and at Woodruff's age he will probably want an extension longer than I'd be comfortable giving.

If we're looking at "not pissing off the fans," would the fans be less upset if we trade both of them after '23 than they would if we trade one this offseason and one next? I think not, and I really think fans will be mad if we let 80% of our starting rotation and our starting SS walk for nothing after '24. That's a route the team can't even consider. 

It's going to be a tough road, but I think the best chance of maintaining "continued competitiveness" without a rebuild period will be to trade one of the "big 2" this offseason, and one next offseason. Whatever way we go, we'll have to rely on young players both from our current system and from trades. 

So, my opinion (which probably isn't worth much) is that they will dangle both of Burnes and Woodruff on the market and take the offer that makes the most sense while retaining the other. They'll go into next season with a still-strong rotation (Burnes or Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Ashby a group including Houser fighting for #5), some rookie starters (Mitchell, Turang, Frelick), and some positions hopefully upgraded by the aforementioned trade. They should also have some money to spend on upgrades with the subtraction of some decent-sized obligations (Burnes/Woodruff, Hader, Cain, Wong) off the books.

I think they'll still be in contention for a division title with this team, but if not they'll start the sell-off next trade deadline, with the remainder of the pending FAs traded away before the start of the '24 season.

One only has to look at the Castillo trade to see the minimum the Brewers should expect back in a Burnes trade.  A top 15 prospect, a top 50 prospect. a prospect in the team's top 10 and a low A flyer.