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However you feel about the new rules regarding infield defensive alignment, they're coming and probably here to stay. With strikeout totals soaring, defenses shifting on nearly every batter, and batters favoring launch angle and exit velocity over putting the ball in play, league-wide offense plummeted to an OPS of just .706.
The league OPS was .700 in 2014 and .700 back in 1992 Over the past thirty years, the .706 OPS posted this past year is the third lowest league OPS. Baseball offense is down, and the powers that be don't seem to like it. On top of that, with strikeouts up and fewer balls in play turning into hits due to the shift, the phrase that more than one person has bandied about in the game (and without) is that the game "isn't aesthetically pleasing."
With yearly tweaks being done at multiple levels in the minor leagues, the big one coming in 2023 is the *ban on defensive shifts. The asterisk shows up as we will see a partial ban on defensive positioning (at least not yet). The rules state that the defense must have four players with their feet on the infield dirt and two players on either side of second base when a pitch is thrown. With that in mind, defenses will still have a fair amount of freedom to shift a second baseman deep into the hole, have a shortstop right on top of second base, have the third baseman play in the shortstop position so on. We won't see a third baseman playing in short right field and a second baseman playing fifteen feet behind the first baseman, cutting off sharp line drives into the right field corner.
So how does this affect or benefit the Brewers? Rule changes regarding defensive positioning should affect pull-hitting lefties nearly equally across the league. In 2023 the Brewers look to feature (again) a lefty-heavy lineup with mainstays Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez, newcomer Jesse Winker, and early indications are that Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick could both receive ample playing time in their rookie campaigns.
Of the three lefties returning who'll see major playing time, Tellez is the most extreme pull hitter. (via FanGraphs)
| Season | Team | Level | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | TOR | MLB | 1.06 | 26.0% | 38.0% | 36.0% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 21.1% | 0.0% | 42.0% | 30.0% | 28.0% | 18.0% | 42.0% | 40.0% |
| 2019 | TOR | MLB | 1.02 | 23.7% | 38.5% | 37.7% | 10.3% | 21.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 42.0% | 39.3% | 18.7% | 15.6% | 42.8% | 41.6% |
| 2020 | TOR | MLB | 1.38 | 20.0% | 46.3% | 33.7% | 6.3% | 25.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 36.8% | 37.9% | 25.3% | 20.0% | 42.1% | 37.9% |
| 2021 | 2 Tms | MLB | 1.08 | 20.6% | 41.2% | 38.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 36.5% | 36.9% | 26.6% | 15.9% | 48.5% | 35.6% |
| 2022 | MIL | MLB | 0.86 | 15.6% | 38.9% | 45.5% | 12.3% | 18.7% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 41.4% | 39.7% | 19.0% | 17.5% | 42.1% | 40.4% |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 0.99 | 19.6% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 11.3% | 18.7% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 40.1% | 38.3% | 21.6% | 16.9% | 43.7% | 39.4% |
Teams shifted 78.4% of the time against Tellez, resulting in a .020 drop in his wOBA, per Statcast. Over the past two seasons, Tellez's shift data has been fairly consistent with teams shifting on him often, and Tellez hitting well in his opportunities against standard alignment. Another factor in Tellez's performance to be considered has to be the .215 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Well below his career norm, and any season he's had prior, the Brewers have to expect that number to rebound to some degree. Tellez doesn't strike out at the pace of most 30 - 35 home run sluggers, but having a bit higher BABIP would boost that slugging and OPS. Whether teams are shifting or not, that number seems unsustainable for another full season for Tellez.
Despite the seeming perception of Christian Yelich grounding out repeatedly to second base, his spray chart, hit chart, and all the data shows that he distributes the ball evenly to all fields. (via FanGraphs)
| Season | Team | Level | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | MIA | MLB | 4.58 | 23.0% | 63.2% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 32.0% | 36.0% | 32.0% | 17.1% | 48.6% | 34.3% |
| 2014 | MIA | MLB | 3.42 | 21.2% | 61.0% | 17.8% | 1.3% | 11.5% | 6.0% | 50.0% | 27.8% | 40.9% | 31.3% | 15.8% | 50.0% | 34.2% |
| 2015 | MIA | MLB | 4.16 | 22.5% | 62.5% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 31.7% | 40.5% | 27.7% | 17.1% | 49.9% | 33.1% |
| 2016 | MIA | MLB | 2.82 | 23.4% | 56.5% | 20.0% | 5.6% | 23.6% | 6.0% | 100.0% | 36.0% | 35.1% | 29.0% | 17.5% | 44.5% | 38.0% |
| 2017 | MIA | MLB | 2.20 | 19.4% | 55.4% | 25.2% | 2.5% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | 29.3% | 15.9% | 48.8% | 35.2% |
| 2018 | MIL | MLB | 2.20 | 24.7% | 51.8% | 23.5% | 4.9% | 35.0% | 6.6% | 33.3% | 34.9% | 38.1% | 27.0% | 14.5% | 37.9% | 47.6% |
| 2019 | MIL | MLB | 1.20 | 20.9% | 43.2% | 35.9% | 7.5% | 32.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 39.3% | 37.4% | 23.3% | 14.4% | 34.8% | 50.8% |
| 2020 | MIL | MLB | 1.70 | 19.4% | 50.8% | 29.8% | 0.0% | 32.4% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 38.7% | 33.1% | 28.2% | 8.1% | 50.8% | 41.1% |
| 2021 | MIL | MLB | 2.29 | 22.0% | 54.4% | 23.7% | 2.9% | 13.2% | 7.7% | 100.0% | 35.3% | 35.3% | 29.4% | 15.9% | 49.1% | 34.9% |
| 2022 | MIL | MLB | 2.55 | 18.4% | 58.6% | 23.0% | 5.3% | 14.7% | 6.2% | 33.3% | 34.4% | 35.3% | 30.3% | 13.9% | 52.2% | 33.9% |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 2.46 | 21.5% | 55.8% | 22.7% | 3.9% | 21.7% | 5.9% | 44.4% | 34.0% | 37.3% | 28.7% | 15.4% | 46.2% | 38.4% |
Accordingly, teams don't shift on Yelich all that much, at 30.6%, and interestingly when they do, his wOBA last season was .368 in 206 plate appearances compared to the .311 wOBA posted in his non-shifted plate appearances. During previous campaigns from 2018 to 2021, teams were shifting on Yelich more in the 50-55% range. It could be that Yelich becoming more of a singles and doubles hitter, and definitely a guy who uses all fields, is forcing teams to defend the whole field.
Jesse Winker is an interesting case, as he had an extreme down year in 2022, seemingly due to playing injured for much of the season. Winker's shift data is strange in that in all but one season in his career, he has posted a higher wOBA while being shifted than not shifted, yet teams continue to shift against him, and his spray charts and hit data suggest he is a heavy pull hitter. (via FanGraphs)
| Season | Team | Level | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | IFH% | BUH% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | CIN | MLB | 1.70 | 16.5% | 52.6% | 30.9% | 3.3% | 23.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 40.8% | 37.8% | 21.4% | 12.2% | 52.0% | 35.7% |
| 2018 | CIN | MLB | 1.24 | 24.0% | 42.1% | 33.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 50.0% | 37.1% | 37.1% | 25.7% | 11.8% | 44.3% | 43.9% |
| 2019 | CIN | MLB | 1.96 | 26.4% | 48.7% | 24.9% | 4.3% | 23.2% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 39.9% | 36.3% | 23.7% | 15.5% | 43.2% | 41.4% |
| 2020 | CIN | MLB | 1.67 | 23.1% | 48.1% | 28.8% | 6.7% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 46.2% | 31.7% | 22.1% | 10.6% | 40.4% | 49.0% |
| 2021 | CIN | MLB | 1.26 | 24.7% | 42.0% | 33.3% | 9.5% | 20.7% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 39.4% | 35.6% | 25.0% | 15.8% | 47.7% | 36.5% |
| 2022 | SEA | MLB | 0.96 | 20.6% | 38.9% | 40.6% | 17.4% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 38.5% | 35.7% | 25.8% | 20.5% | 50.8% | 28.7% |
| Total | - - - | MLB | 1.32 | 23.2% | 43.7% | 33.1% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 28.6% | 39.5% | 35.9% | 24.6% | 15.6% | 46.8% | 37.6% |
There's a lot to parse here. Winker's hard hit percentage fell off a cliff last year, after trending down in 2021. His flyball percentage was well up, but it didn't really translate into home runs in Seattle, which is somewhat to be expected. First and foremost, for Winker's 2023 to be successful, he needs to be healthy. Digging through the data, it's hard to tell how much of Winker's drop off was due to injury, playing in Seattle, or other factors. With the limited ability to shift next year however, a healthy Winker should be able to benefit.
The rest of the Brewers roster still has a lot of left handed sticks as of early December. Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick should see plenty of time in the outfield. Victor Caratini and newly acquired utility infielder Abraham Toro each hit from both sides of the plate. It's possible on any given night the Brewers could send as many as six batters to the dish from the left side of the plate.
The Brewers struggled against left handed pitching last year, and with their current makeup, it's possible that trend could continue. As the off season continues, it will be interesting to see how General Manager Matt Arnold approaches the lineup makeup of the team as it currently stands. With youngsters Frelick and Mitchell, who have had varying success against left handed pitching in their minor league careers and who are both more suited to on base roles rather than slugging and run producing roles, the Brewers offense could see a boost against left-handed pitching with these types of players more able to utilize the diamond with the shift being banned.
Sal Frelick's splits in 2022 - (via StatCast)
Platoon Splits
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Type
|
PA
|
AB
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BB
|
SO
|
SB
|
CS
|
HBP
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville Sounds | Triple-A | vs Left | 77 | 66 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3 | .394 | .467 | .515 | .982 | |||
| Biloxi Shuckers | Double-A | vs Left | 65 | 55 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 3 | .273 | .369 | .436 | .805 | |||
| Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | High-A | vs Left | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .211 | .375 | .263 | .638 | |||
| Nashville Sounds | Triple-A | vs Right | 140 | 123 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 2 | .350 | .417 | .504 | .921 | |||
| Biloxi Shuckers | Double-A | vs Right | 188 | 169 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 23 | 1 | .331 | .384 | .473 | .857 | |||
| Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | High-A | vs Right | 68 | 60 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | .317 | .397 | .517 | .914 |
After an initial struggle at High A, Frelick hit well against lefties at both stops the rest of the season. Whether that will translate into success against the tough lefties he'll face at the major league level remains to be seen, but certainly those numbers are encouraging.
Ultimately, regardless of where the fielders stand, the Brewer offense should be better than it was in 2022, and it absolutely has to produce better results than it did against left-handed pitching. However, with a bevy of pull-heavy lefties on the roster, a ban on the shift could make life easier for a few of the guys who will most likely be installed in the middle of the order in Tellez and Winker. Despite the fact that the shift ban should affect everyone equally, a team heavy on left handed batters like the Brewers could benefit more than some if the lineup stays as currently constructed.
What do you think, Brewer Fanatics? Is the ban on the shift going to play any kind of role for the Brewers current lefty-heavy offense? Will the Brewers continue to struggle against left handed pitching regardless? Does Matt Arnold have a few more moves up his sleeves that will make a bigger difference than where the second baseman stands? Let us know what you think in the comments!
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