Here's Why The Brewers Need to Steal More Bases

The risk of an out while attempting stolen bases created a drop in value of the game's thievery over the past 20 years. With the surge of power at the plate and the focus on "protecting" your 27 outs, the risk-reward of stolen bases caused teams to pull back heavily. But has relying on power hitting made the Brewers susceptible to droughts and frustration? Especially as pitching has become a dominating force in MLB in recent seasons, a shift in thinking about the stolen base could help the Brewers score more often and fill in for the long ball when it dries up.

Taking the chance on more steals can provide additional chances to score with one single instead of needing multiple base knocks or an extra-base hit.  Swiping an extra bag here or there can also create more opportunities to strike with groundouts and sacrifice flies. While there is always some risk to steal attempts, there are a number of factors that favor more thefts.

The Brewers are 9-12 this season when they don't hit a home run and 24-11 when they go deep. It's not surprising since home runs do so much damage. Even a solo blast is a guaranteed run. But failing to hit a tank shouldn't create a dramatic push toward a loss. Half of Milwaukee's defeats without a homer were one or two-run games, and a handful of them were low-scoring affairs. In games like those, which often happen in the playoffs, stealing a bag and sneaking a run makes a huge difference. It's not just about what the offense is doing, however.

One the defensive side of the argument, the league caught stealing percentage (CS%) this year is 24.4%, second worst in MLB history. Only 2021 saw a lower success rate of throwing out base stealers (24.3%). Considering that trend, the risk is as low as ever to snag a bag and set up more chances to score. But the avoidance of stolen base attempts is more about what is valued offensively. At the same time, modern baseball has become incredibly challenging to hit on any consistent level.

Entering play Monday, the league batting average in 2022 is at its fourth-lowest point since 1900 (.240). That may go up as warmer weather hits, but last season was the sixth worst in the previous 122 seasons (.242), so it wouldn't seem like much of a change is coming. No, batting average isn't the best gauge of offense anymore, but the point is that getting multiple hits in an inning - or getting the "big hit" - is far less likely nowadays. Even if power is your delight, the current league slugging percentage of .388 ranks just 65th in MLB history. Let's not forget nearly all those seasons included the pitcher batting in the NL, and each year before 1973 saw the AL without the DH, either.

So if overall hitting and power is more of a struggle, it might be time to try something else. This isn't a small ball versus new-school argument. The cons related to sacrifice bunting are fair in that most of those bunts include at least one out. Stolen bases, however, have been far more successful in recent years. It has almost become a science for teams - well, advanced math. Swiping second or third base at a high percentage would limit the number of hits you need to score in any given inning. For a team like Milwaukee, a single additional run holds tons of value thanks to the pitching staff.  

A strategy to increase stolen base attempts wouldn't work for every team, but the Brewers have multiple guys on the roster who could take advantage. While pure speed isn't the only key to swiping bags, it certainly helps. Milwaukee has seven players who rank in the top 73 percentile of sprint speed in MLB:

• Andrew McCutchen (88.3%)
• Pablo Reyes (81.2%)
• Tyrone Taylor (79%)
• Jace Peterson (77.1%)
• Christian Yelich (76%)
• Willy Adames (73.7%)
• Lorenzo Cain (73.4%)

The Brewers are currently seventh in steals (33) and have a 73% success rate (18th). Kolten Wong and Peterson are tied for the team lead with eight stolen bases. (Peterson is 8-for-8). The greatest struggle for a number of the players above is simply getting on base in order to steal. Once they actually acquire first base, pitchers often lose interest in that player, and they should take advantage.

Many pitchers couldn't care less about holding runners or preventing stolen bases in the modern game. The emphasis is generally on making quality pitches and hitting their spots. This has led to most pitchers eschewing the slide step and sticking with a traditional leg kick, causing pitchers to take longer to deliver a pitch. Pay attention to this part of the game, as you will see it consistently creates more frequent opportunities to swipe bases. Not only do pitchers mostly ignore the runners, they also throw fewer fastballs than ever. Breaking balls and offspeed pitches are tougher for catchers to nab would-be thieves. As you can see below, hurlers throw the four-seam fastball, which generally travels straighter and quicker than any other pitch, less than 50% of the time in2022. That follows the recent downward trend of lower fastball percentages (FB%) and higher velocity (FBv).


Pitchers' cold shoulders toward fastballs and fast runners open the door even more for Milwaukee to run through when the offense is stagnant. It has worked, theoretically, for some recent pennant winners, including some high-powered offenses. The 2021 season was the first time since 2012 that neither the AL nor the NL champion ranked in the top-six teams in MLB in stolen bases. While power will primarily drive offenses, these four World Series Champions and four runners-up took advantage of swiping many bags.

• 2020 Tampa Bay Rays (3rd in SB)
• 2019 Washington Nationals* (6th)
• 2018 Boston Red Sox* (3rd)
• 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers (1st)
• 2016 Cleveland Indians (4th)
• 2015 Kansas City Royals* (5th)
• 2014 Kansas City Royals (1st)
• 2013 Boston Red Sox* (4th)

*World Series Champion

Considering the Brewers haven't been to the World Series since 1982 and failed to reach the NLCS the past three seasons, what is there to lose? It might be valuable to learn how to maximize stolen bases by emphasizing the strategy more often during the regular season. Pick some key spots with select runners and specific hitters at the plate to get a feel for what works. Again, what's the harm? It would be tough to be much worse offensively and it might be a pleasant surprise.

Though Milwaukee is 13th in runs scored in MLB, it's been blatantly clear the offense has been lacking the punch and steadiness you'd expect from a World Series contender. There is more than one way to create valuable runs, and the more you can diversify your tactics, the more difficult it is for the opposition to hold you down.

Some may think trying to steal more bases is dumb, not worth the risk, or an outdated idea. If you're the Brewers with a world-class pitching staff and an uncertain offense, finding ways to get just one more run each game could be the difference between a dream season and another disappointment.