Here's a Hitter the Brewers Should Target in a Trade Right Now

Milwaukee's lineup is not producing at a high enough level to make people believe the club is World Series caliber. They are missing a hitter (maybe two) because no one has truly stepped up through nearly 60 games. Trey Mancini can provide that immediate impact the Brewers desperately need.

Mancini's slash line of .303/.374/.448/.822 would be an enormous jolt for the Crew. I've had my eye on him for a couple of seasons, knowing at some point the Baltimore Orioles would need to move on. He can opt for free agency at the end of this year, and they could lose him without anything in return after this season. The Brewers could offer a tempting collection of minor leaguers (or young Major Leaguers) to help the Orioles push through rebuild mode into competitive mode in a year or two.

Mancini had a tremendous 2019 campaign, belting 35 home runs with 38 doubles, 106 runs, 97 RBI, and an .899 OPS (134 OPS+). Unfortunately, he had to sit out the 2020 season as he successfully battled and recovered from stage 3 colon cancer. He came back in 2021 to post solid numbers (21 HR, .758 OPS), especially considering what he went through mentally and physically.

Now another year removed from his illness, Mancini is back to hitting at an All-Star level, and he could be even better at American Family Field. The Orioles created an eyesore in left field at Camden Yards, making it a problem for right-handed hitters to drive the ball out that way. That could be why Mancini ranks 15th in MLB with a .406 xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average), but only 31st with an actual wOBA of .361. Mancini has just six homers this season, but based on Baseball Savant's Expected Home Runs by Park, he would have 15 in Milwaukee - the most of any park outside of Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. You can see from the hits spray chart below where some doubles and triples would be dingers.

If the Brewers did acquire Mancini, he would immediately become the club leader in batting average, OBP, and OPS - even without the boost from Milwaukee's home park. Mancini also has rather even platoon splits versus lefty and righty pitching. While the Brewers tried to construct a roster that takes advantage of hitters with favorable splits, it has mostly failed thus far. At the same time, the 30-year-old right-handed hitter has fared better against southpaws in his career, which the Brewers continue to need as they have limped to a 9-12 record against left-handed starters.

Mancini's strengths would also fit as an improvement to some of the Brewers' weaknesses offensively. Entering play Wednesday, Milwaukee ranks 21st in OBP (.307) and 13th out of 15 NL teams behind only the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks. Mancini not only owns a terrific .374 OBP this season, his career .336 OBP is better than all but two Brewers' current 2022 OBP.

The other area Mancini can bolster is within the strikeout department. Milwaukee has the 7th-worst strikeout percentage (K%) at 24.0% in 2022. Mancini's K% this season is 17.6% which is better than every Brewer with at least 60 plate appearances other than Kolten Wong. When you look at where he ranks in some key metrics, Mancini's production isn't a fluke, either.

With Mancini, Milwaukee wouldn't need to figure out when he plays; he would be in the lineup every day. Though he is a first baseman by trade, he can play a corner outfield spot in a pinch and spend time as the DH. There could be some handshake agreement with Andrew McCutchen regarding playing time; however, he has not produced up to expectation. (Not even close.) Realistically, Mancini would be taking over for Cutch and filling in for Christian Yelich and Rowdy Tellez when they need a break.

McCutchen is the most significant source of consternation and one of the main reasons Milwaukee needs a guy like Mancini. While McCutchen's overall stats are ugly (.224/.275/.316/.591), the Brewers brought him here to mash left-handed pitching. That isn't happening. Hitting just .218 with a .654 OPS with the platoon edge isn't going to cut it. And yet, somehow, manager Craig Counsell continues to put him in critical spots in the lineup, especially disturbing when they face a righty. Trading for Mancini pushes McCutchen down or out of the lineup most nights and ideally takes the pressure off guys like Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe, Yelich, and Tellez.

Mancini is under contract this year for $7.5 million, with a mutual option for $10 million in 2023. While it's unlikely he would exercise that option, it's also possible he might be more open to that idea if he could pump up his number in American Family Field instead of the revamped Camden Yards. That would mean Milwaukee could use him to make a postseason run for two seasons.

Mancini's current performance might push the Orioles' asking price up a notch. Who would they want from Milwaukee? Would they demand Brice Turang in a deal? That seems like a high price tag at this point. Would Baltimore lean toward pitching or outfielders? The Brewers have a lot of depth across the various levels of the minor leagues to take a hit or two in those positions. Taking a couple of top-30 guys and a lower level prospect could be enough. The Orioles are a tough club to gauge right now, but there are a bevy of options to consider in a trade with the Brewers.

One thing is certain, Mancini is the type of player you should be willing to give up a little more for with a possible title at stake. Not only is he a talented player, he clearly has fight. Being able to come back and perform at this level after beating cancer is a testament to his strength, perseverance, and character. His perspective on baseball and his career might also be different. Going through an actual life-and-death event can put an athlete in a more relaxed, appreciative state when they often perform better. There's no metric to measure that.

But even if you simply stick to the numbers, Mancini would be a fantastic fit for the lineup, even if he doesn't fill certain holes in the field. With how good the Brewers' pitching is and can be, adding a consistent stick like Mancini's sets Milwaukee up for a deep postseason run. Like with Adames last season, striking early before other teams show interest could give the Brewers a leg up and solidify their offense sooner than later.