Friction Between Brewers and Corbin Burnes Could Endanger Team's Contention Window

“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what [transpired],” Burnes told reporters.

The Brewers won their arbitration case against Corbin Burnes a day earlier, on Wednesday, February 15, giving the two-time All-Star a $10.01 million salary for 2023, not the $10.75 million that Burnes and his agent requested. 

With an apparent rift in the relationship between Burnes and Brewers’ front office, the team’s current window of playoff contention that started back in 2017 may be over sooner than fans would like. 

What many people are taking away from this is that Burnes will be more likely to enter free agency when his service time allows him to after the 2024 season. However, he could be leaving the Brewers much sooner, if their 2023 battle plans to win the National League Central over the St. Louis Cardinals come up short. 

FanGraphs’s pre-season playoff odds currently have the Brewers projected with an 86-76 record, with a 57% chance to make the postseason. These odds have them finishing second in the division behind the Cardinals, who are projected with an 88-74 record and a 72.4% chance to make the postseason.

While projections do look favorable for the Brewers to contend and not consider shopping Burnes at the trade deadline, the realities of baseball may tell a different story around the All-Star break in July. If the Brewers are far enough behind the Cardinals halfway through the season and Burnes is pitching at the level he’s established over the last three seasons, the front office will likely not hesitate to trade Burnes away at his highest value and ask for a heavy return, close to the price tag of Juan Soto. 

The front office may not be the team that pushes for this trade though. If the Brewers season continues to sour from this point forward, Burnes may not hesitate on asking for a trade request. If Burnes has already shared there is a rift in their relationship because the team is not willing to pay him the amount he’s worth, then the Brewers won’t be a team he will expect a massive contract from when it’s time for his biggest payday. 

Obviously, unlike players in salary-capped leagues like the NFL and NBA, players who request a trade in MLB have very little leverage. Burnes could hold out at some point, refusing to pitch until he’s dealt, but the unthinkablity of that is reflected by the fact that he reported immediately to spring training even after the embittering experience of the arbitration hearing. Short of such a withholding of performance, a trade request becomes toothless, as Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates found out this winter.

It is a grim reality for Brewers fans to think about just as Spring Training opens, but the comments from the team’s best pitcher show it’s a reality that needs to be considered going into the 2023 season.