Brewers Have Decisions to Make on Four Key Potential Free Agents

You don't cost/benefit to see if Boxberger is worth $3M.  You review to see if Box is worth $2.25M.  The buyout is a sunk cost. 

At that price, and assuming Taylor Rogers is gone, I would think the Brewers retain him for one more year.

You don't cost/benefit to see if Boxberger is worth $3M.  You review to see if Box is worth $2.25M.  The buyout is a sunk cost. 

At that price, and assuming Taylor Rogers is gone, I would think the Brewers retain him for one more year.

Brewers have a lot of relief pitching decisions. Even though not free agents, Gott/Suter/Bush/Perdomo/Gustave/Milner/Williams are all arbitration eligible as well. Out of that group only Williams is a slam dunk tender. Topa/Cousins/Strzelecki are the minimum salary guys so maybe want three/four of these other guys back. I would lean toward keeping Boxberger at the 2.25.

Brewers have a lot of relief pitching decisions. Even though not free agents, Gott/Suter/Bush/Perdomo/Gustave/Milner/Williams are all arbitration eligible as well. Out of that group only Williams is a slam dunk tender. Topa/Cousins/Strzelecki are the minimum salary guys so maybe want three/four of these other guys back. I would lean toward keeping Boxberger at the 2.25.

I wouldn't put the Odds of a return so high for Peterson as he is a free agent and will be dealing with every team in MLB.  The Brewers can't afford a bidding war on a utility player when there is little "disposable" budget.  I would support bringing him back if the money is right, especially if they jettison Wong.

Rogers ERA+ is so bad because he has given up 6 HR in less than 20 innings with the Brewers.  Given his age I'd be concerned that isn't just a blip, but the sign that his stuff is declining. So far he's way too expensive to take that chance.  If they keep Rogers and Boxberger they need to be a better option so both are shifted to lower pressure innings I don't think you can just assume they can continue in their current roles for the purposes of addressing the bullpen issues. 

I wouldn't put the Odds of a return so high for Peterson as he is a free agent and will be dealing with every team in MLB.  The Brewers can't afford a bidding war on a utility player when there is little "disposable" budget.  I would support bringing him back if the money is right, especially if they jettison Wong.

Rogers ERA+ is so bad because he has given up 6 HR in less than 20 innings with the Brewers.  Given his age I'd be concerned that isn't just a blip, but the sign that his stuff is declining. So far he's way too expensive to take that chance.  If they keep Rogers and Boxberger they need to be a better option so both are shifted to lower pressure innings I don't think you can just assume they can continue in their current roles for the purposes of addressing the bullpen issues. 

I'd love for Peterson to return, but I'd peg the chance at around 35%. This will be his first chance to get a good payday, and I think he goes for it. If Brewers can do something like 2 years @ $4M a year, it's a no brainer. If someone offers him 4 years @ $8M or more a year, he's gone.

The $3M option on Boxberger ought to be picked up. I'd give him a 85% shot of returning.

They're moving on from Narvaez. Severino or Feliciano will be on the roster. I'd put Narvaez's chance of returning at less than 5%.

Rogers will only be back on a short, cheap deal. If they can sign him for a year at $4M, sure. If it takes 3-4 years at $6M or more he's gone. 20% chance of returning.

And WONG? It's not complicated at all. He's gone. They can spend the $8M better elsewhere. Less than 10% chance of returning, and only if Peterson is gone.

I'd love for Peterson to return, but I'd peg the chance at around 35%. This will be his first chance to get a good payday, and I think he goes for it. If Brewers can do something like 2 years @ $4M a year, it's a no brainer. If someone offers him 4 years @ $8M or more a year, he's gone.

The $3M option on Boxberger ought to be picked up. I'd give him a 85% shot of returning.

They're moving on from Narvaez. Severino or Feliciano will be on the roster. I'd put Narvaez's chance of returning at less than 5%.

Rogers will only be back on a short, cheap deal. If they can sign him for a year at $4M, sure. If it takes 3-4 years at $6M or more he's gone. 20% chance of returning.

And WONG? It's not complicated at all. He's gone. They can spend the $8M better elsewhere. Less than 10% chance of returning, and only if Peterson is gone.

Kolton Wong is still ranked #11 for offensive production among 2B per Fangraphs. I don't know, good luck replacing his offense at 2B. A lot of value being able to get a guy at a modest price for just a single year. Not to mention his style of offense helps the Brewers lineup more than just his numbers show on paper.

Kolton Wong is still ranked #11 for offensive production among 2B per Fangraphs. I don't know, good luck replacing his offense at 2B. A lot of value being able to get a guy at a modest price for just a single year. Not to mention his style of offense helps the Brewers lineup more than just his numbers show on paper.

 IF (and it's a big IF) Stearns can somehow find a 3B through trade, then I think Wong is gone for sure. They have to find a spot for Turang, and if it's not 2B (Urias at 2B) then it's in Peterson's role as a super utility guy. I think McCutchon-Rogers-Narvaez are gone for sure.  Depending on what CC thinks of Brosseau I think Peterson is going to get more than what Milwaukee wants to pay and he leaves too. Rogers just isn't worth the projected $9M he'll get so Stearns has to find another lefty in the pen besides Suter (I think he'll be back).  Houser is questionable unless they trade Burnes for a huge haul. 

 IF (and it's a big IF) Stearns can somehow find a 3B through trade, then I think Wong is gone for sure. They have to find a spot for Turang, and if it's not 2B (Urias at 2B) then it's in Peterson's role as a super utility guy. I think McCutchon-Rogers-Narvaez are gone for sure.  Depending on what CC thinks of Brosseau I think Peterson is going to get more than what Milwaukee wants to pay and he leaves too. Rogers just isn't worth the projected $9M he'll get so Stearns has to find another lefty in the pen besides Suter (I think he'll be back).  Houser is questionable unless they trade Burnes for a huge haul. 

13 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

 IF (and it's a big IF) Stearns can somehow find a 3B through trade, then I think Wong is gone for sure. They have to find a spot for Turang, and if it's not 2B (Urias at 2B) then it's in Peterson's role as a super utility guy. I think McCutchon-Rogers-Narvaez are gone for sure.  Depending on what CC thinks of Brosseau I think Peterson is going to get more than what Milwaukee wants to pay and he leaves too. Rogers just isn't worth the projected $9M he'll get so Stearns has to find another lefty in the pen besides Suter (I think he'll be back).  Houser is questionable unless they trade Burnes for a huge haul. 

Houser? You think there's any chance they'd non-tender Adrian Houser? I hadn't even considered the possibility that he wouldn't be back, but...I guess, he's really only had one solid season. 

I still like Houser(as a #4/5). Big time GB pitcher, provides you some protection and he shouldn't be more than 4.5 next year, but I kinda see it now. Still think SPers are just too valuable to let go at that price regardless of Burnes. If Gasser(or less likely Small) throw really well in AAA or earn a spot, then I'd like Houser as a multi-inning reliever...and then if you can get a '21 type year from him, flip him.

I'd thrown the idea of maybe picking up the Wong option and then dealing him before his 3HR game. Looking at the 2B market, ~6 WAR over the past two seasons and a solid finish to the year to get him to 3 again this year, feels like that's a really good deal for some team. And as I said in another thread, you can even eat 2M if it means getting back a valuable reliever.

I'd consider bringing back Narvaez, Peterson or Rogers, but they'd all have to be cheap deals.
Narvaez would have to be 1/2.5, Rodgers in the 5M range and Peterson 2/8, maybe 2/10. He's been an important player the last couple years. 
No reason to bring McCutchen back for next year...literally none. Even if the rookies can't hit better than him...which I think they can, you're saving ~8M and you're getting them valuable experience. 

I think this team looks largely the same. I expect you'll see a couple smaller trades. Try and bolster that BP with some more power arms. Kinda hope Suter isn't brought back as I think he'd be redundant with Milner and you have too many guys who COULD be good relievers next year like Gott, Gustave, Strezelicki, Cousins, Topa along with Ecreg who looks like he's really turned a corner in AAA.

I don't think Attanasio is gonna want to blow this rotation up...even if it may be the better idea long term. I think he wants one more run and he'll take the diminishing returns. And we should also be able to push the payroll up to 150 this year with the new TV money coming in. So take the Cain, Wong(if he's let go), McCutchen contracts, Rosenthal, Rogers or just what we were paying Hader. I'd guess when you factor in money coming off the books with arbitration raises, we should have ~20-25M to spend. It's just hard to see where that money gets spent. 3B there's nobody worth adding. 

Vazquez at C, maybe Abreu at 1B...though I know he's loved by the CWS, they have too many 1B/DH only players. 

Maybe it's Josh Bell?

Should be an interesting off-season. 

13 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

 IF (and it's a big IF) Stearns can somehow find a 3B through trade, then I think Wong is gone for sure. They have to find a spot for Turang, and if it's not 2B (Urias at 2B) then it's in Peterson's role as a super utility guy. I think McCutchon-Rogers-Narvaez are gone for sure.  Depending on what CC thinks of Brosseau I think Peterson is going to get more than what Milwaukee wants to pay and he leaves too. Rogers just isn't worth the projected $9M he'll get so Stearns has to find another lefty in the pen besides Suter (I think he'll be back).  Houser is questionable unless they trade Burnes for a huge haul. 

Houser? You think there's any chance they'd non-tender Adrian Houser? I hadn't even considered the possibility that he wouldn't be back, but...I guess, he's really only had one solid season. 

I still like Houser(as a #4/5). Big time GB pitcher, provides you some protection and he shouldn't be more than 4.5 next year, but I kinda see it now. Still think SPers are just too valuable to let go at that price regardless of Burnes. If Gasser(or less likely Small) throw really well in AAA or earn a spot, then I'd like Houser as a multi-inning reliever...and then if you can get a '21 type year from him, flip him.

I'd thrown the idea of maybe picking up the Wong option and then dealing him before his 3HR game. Looking at the 2B market, ~6 WAR over the past two seasons and a solid finish to the year to get him to 3 again this year, feels like that's a really good deal for some team. And as I said in another thread, you can even eat 2M if it means getting back a valuable reliever.

I'd consider bringing back Narvaez, Peterson or Rogers, but they'd all have to be cheap deals.
Narvaez would have to be 1/2.5, Rodgers in the 5M range and Peterson 2/8, maybe 2/10. He's been an important player the last couple years. 
No reason to bring McCutchen back for next year...literally none. Even if the rookies can't hit better than him...which I think they can, you're saving ~8M and you're getting them valuable experience. 

I think this team looks largely the same. I expect you'll see a couple smaller trades. Try and bolster that BP with some more power arms. Kinda hope Suter isn't brought back as I think he'd be redundant with Milner and you have too many guys who COULD be good relievers next year like Gott, Gustave, Strezelicki, Cousins, Topa along with Ecreg who looks like he's really turned a corner in AAA.

I don't think Attanasio is gonna want to blow this rotation up...even if it may be the better idea long term. I think he wants one more run and he'll take the diminishing returns. And we should also be able to push the payroll up to 150 this year with the new TV money coming in. So take the Cain, Wong(if he's let go), McCutchen contracts, Rosenthal, Rogers or just what we were paying Hader. I'd guess when you factor in money coming off the books with arbitration raises, we should have ~20-25M to spend. It's just hard to see where that money gets spent. 3B there's nobody worth adding. 

Vazquez at C, maybe Abreu at 1B...though I know he's loved by the CWS, they have too many 1B/DH only players. 

Maybe it's Josh Bell?

Should be an interesting off-season. 

To the four mentioned in this article:

1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go.

2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M.

3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher.

4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers. 

To the four mentioned in this article:

1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go.

2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M.

3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher.

4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers. 

14 hours ago, monty57 said:

To the four mentioned in this article:

1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go.

2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M.

3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher.

4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers. 

Yeah, probably should have kept it to the article. 

I hope you're wrong on 1. On 2, you're probably right. 3, agree obviously. 4...he can be a helluva nice lefty so I hope you're wrong on this one, but I suspect you're not. 

14 hours ago, monty57 said:

To the four mentioned in this article:

1) I think Peterson will get an offer in free agency that is higher than the Brewers will be willing to go.

2) I think Boxberger's option will be exercised. The team has relied on him pretty heavily, so I definitely think he's worth the risk at $3M.

3) Narvaez is likely gone unless he comes back really cheap on a one-year "prove it" deal. I think the Brewers will keep Caratini and bring in a RH hitting catcher who can hit LHP. Side note, I hope the league goes to automated ball/strike. A good defensive catcher should be someone who can block balls and throw out runners, not one who is good at fooling the umpires. Narvaez is a bad defensive catcher who has learned how to trick umpires into thinking balls are strikes. He is not a good defensive catcher.

4) Rogers should probably go elsewhere. There is no "positive vibe" that would have him sign a "prove it" deal with the Brewers. 

Yeah, probably should have kept it to the article. 

I hope you're wrong on 1. On 2, you're probably right. 3, agree obviously. 4...he can be a helluva nice lefty so I hope you're wrong on this one, but I suspect you're not. 

Wong and Box are really the only interesting cases. The others should be compared to the FA market.  Box should be nearly a no-brainer to retain at $3M.  He's been nails.  Wong is probably gone...too many errors for a defense first 2B....just very little upside there, even if the downside is relatively high as well...it's just not high enough after what I've seen with his glove this year. Wrong side of 32 for Wong next year.

Wong and Box are really the only interesting cases. The others should be compared to the FA market.  Box should be nearly a no-brainer to retain at $3M.  He's been nails.  Wong is probably gone...too many errors for a defense first 2B....just very little upside there, even if the downside is relatively high as well...it's just not high enough after what I've seen with his glove this year. Wrong side of 32 for Wong next year.

Yeah, it's probably just my Stockholm Syndrome after being a Brewers fan all these years, but it's really hard for me to ever feel like paying FAs market value is a good use of Brewers' budget resources, unless the existing roster is waaayy under budget.

I don't see them resigning guys like Jace, Wong, Narvaez, Rogers, or even guys like Adames or Tellez. I think the only way they'd sign these players would be if it's late in the window, and the price comes back down to a number the F.O. is comfortable with (i.e. not "market-value").