For the Second Straight Year, Willy Adames is the Spark the Brewers Need

Willy Adames only appeared in 99 games for the Brewers last year, but without a shadow of a doubt, he was the team's best offensive player in the 2021 campaign. In case you are in need of a recap, Adames was dealt from the Rays to the Brewers in an early season trade which included Brewers relievers Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen.

With Adames now playing his home games at American Family Field instead of Tropicana Field, his offense took off, where he slashed .285/.366/.521 with a wRC+ of 135 in a Brewers uniform. His arrival also paid dividends for Luis Urias, giving Urias some much needed mental clarity, and unlocking Luis as a piece of a contending Brewers team. Oh, and he also received some NL MVP votes despite spending only 60% of his season in Milwaukee. Adames did all of this while quickly becoming a favorite among fans and his teammates alike, and without him, the Brewers might not have found themselves atop the NL Central at year's end. 

It’s been tougher for Adames in 2022 though, and there's no denying it. He has spent much of the season without looking like himself, and after an awkward slide in Miami, he found himself missing over two weeks of time on the IL with an ankle injury. He’s only hitting .200/.290/.467 in his time this year, making it safe to say 2022 hasn’t been the encore many had hoped for.

Whether it's been the ideal season for Adames or not, there's still numerous reasons for optimism. He’s still been a plus with the bat despite his batting average sitting around the Mendoza line all season. He leads the Brewers in home runs with 11, is second on the team in RBIs despite him missing time, all while his OPS+ sits at 110, meaning Adames has been 10% better than league average. If the struggling version of Adames is still 10% better than league average, then it's safe to assume that better things may be to come. But can he be the spark the Brewers need right now?

There are two places to which fans can look, starting with the recent 4-1 victory over Washington that snapped the Brewers eight-game losing streak. Adames carried the offense, driving in 3 of the 4 runs, en route to a victory over the Nationals on Sunday. If any player hopes to help carry a team, helping snap a losing skid is a good way to do it. 

The second place you can look into is the advanced metrics he's posted thus far. By using baseball savant, fans are able to see how players have performed with numbers provided by Statcast, are able to gauge how successful players have been compared to others, and use expected statistics to help with non-quantifiable factors, like luck. 

Statistics via Baseball Savant, accessed 6/13/2022

As a general rule of thumb for viewing baseball savant pages, the more red circles the better. For Adames, there's a lot of red appearing on his page. All of his contact statistics (Avg Exit Velocity, Max Exit Velocity, and HardHit%) are in the 58th percentile or better, meaning when Adames makes contact, the ball has been hit hard. His expected statistics are what really jump out at you though. His expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) puts him nearly in the top 10% of the league, despite his actual .290 OBP, and his expected batting average (xBA) is in the middle of the pack, despite hitting a mere .200.

If you had doubts about Adames' ability to hit to power, his expected slugging places him in the top 5 percent of the league. The other category where he fares incredibly favorably is in his Barrel%. For those unfamiliar with what a 'barrel' is, the definition from mlb.com states, "The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015." In plain terms, a barrel is a pitch that was crushed, and Adames is crushing the ball as often as anybody. 

If you're wondering why Adames hasn't seen any of the fruits of his labor with all of his hard contact, it can be explained with a combination of two things. Firstly, bad luck. You can safely assume with all of his expected statistics being average or better, than Adames has hit into some unfavorable luck. However, he also hasn't been making enough contact for his actual numbers to drift towards his expected ones. With both his K% and Whiff% in the bottom fourth of the league, it's clear that Adames has been missing pitches at too high of a rate. On the flip-side, even if Adames keeps striking out as often as usual, as long as he's hitting the ball the same way, he'll likely find more success. 

Another nugget of information worth mentioning is Adames' ability in the field. While the Brewers certainly don't expect a gold glove, him being such a plus in the field was part of the reason he was acquired in the first place. Statcast places him in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average, all while he's only committed 5 errors so far. While fielding metrics are far from perfect, being on the plus side of them is never a bad thing. Even if you want to throw fielding metrics out the window, it's safe to say he has passed the eye test playing shortstop too. 

With momentum going for the first time in over a week, and off day on Monday, the Brewers have a chance to regroup and look within for the spark offensively they need to regain the lead in the NL Central. They shouldn't have to look far though, as the embers of Adames' hot streak from the previous season are still burning, and it isn't going to take much fuel to get going again.