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After nine appearances (six starts) to begin the 2021 season, Eric Lauer owned a 5.21 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .821. Some may have given up on Lauer as anything more than "just a guy," but the southpaw was about to turn the corner. Following his six-inning, one-run performance Monday night, there's an argument that Lauer is the third-best starting pitcher in Milwaukee. Since June 27, 2021, covering Lauer's last 17 outings (16 starts), he has gone 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 91 innings. Lauer has developed into a true out-getter for the Brewers, though most fans would have difficulty recognizing him on the street.
During that period of 17 appearances, Lauer has the third-lowest opponent batting average (.186), fifth-lowest ERA, and tenth-lowest WHIP in MLB (minimum 50 IP) in MLB. Lauer's success can be partly attributed to increased velocity, leading to an increase in his strikeout percentage (K%). His 23.6 K% during this stretch ranks only 62nd, but it is two percent better than his career mark (21.6%). Throwing straight gas at the top of the strike zone won't hurt his K% in the future.
Eric Lauer, 96mph ? pic.twitter.com/hwHB1VW3ee
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2022
The hard-hit percentage has also dipped when hitters put the ball in play. With a career hard-hit rate of 39.1%, the lefty allowed a .303 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). During his last 17 outings, the hard-hit percentage has dropped more than six percent to 32.9%. That has undoubtedly aided in cutting his BABIP down nearly 100 points. There is an element of luck with BABIP as defensive support, park factors, and other "randomness" can create fluctuations with the stat. However, Lauer also deserves credit for some of the improved BABIP, thanks to his pitch mix.
Working with Brewers coaches and the club's "pitching lab," Lauer developed a highly-effective slider he has relied on more frequently. Using FanGraphs' "Pitch Values," Lauer's slider was -3.8 runs below average in his career. Last season, it was at 6.6 runs above average, an increase of almost ten runs in value. His cutter has also gained value, from -3.0 in his career to 3.3 in 2021 and 1.2 after two starts this year.
In general, Lauer has reduced his use of the four-seam fastball since early last season and kept hitters off-balance with a constant mix of sliders and cutters while utilizing a strategic smattering of changeups and curves. This has allowed Lauer to get more whiffs on pitches in the zone, putting hitters in a hole and resulting in weaker contact. During this stretch, Lauer has an 83.2% Z-contact rate (contact on swings at pitches in the strike zone). That marks a 3.2% drop from his career Z-contact of 86.4%. The combo of more swings and misses - including in the zone - and fewer hard-hit balls has put Lauer in the driver's seat most nights.
Check out his chart from his last start, using the four-seam up and in on lefties (away on righties) while pounding the slider on the opposite corner and down. He had about an even split of four-seam fastballs, sliders, and curveball usage in this outing.
Guys like Houser and Peralta are better in some areas despite Lauer's emergence. Houser has a better ERA in the same span (2.25) - the best among Milwaukee's starting five - and rarely gives up home runs. However, he has a 7.3% lower K% and walked batters 3.7% more often than Lauer. Peralta has also walked batters at a 1.3% higher rate but owns a 6.3% better K% since June 27, 2021, and regularly gets far more swings and misses. Of course, Peralta's 4.48 ERA during that time leaves much to be desired.
As for Lauer, there will always be a concern that his BABIP has a natural regression to the mean, resulting in more hits and offensive outbursts from the opposition. He could also see a return to velocity issues and more overall contact by hitters. But as of right now, there are no doubts about his effectiveness on the mound. Consider the company he has been keeping since the end of last June: both 2021 Cy Young Award winners and a pair of Los Angeles Dodgers hurlers who were top-7 vote-getters for the award.
Including tonight, most starts of 5+ IP, one run or fewer since June 27 of last season:
T1. Corbin Burnes & Julio Urias - 11
— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) April 19, 2022
T3. Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray & Eric Lauer - 10
Suppose Lauer continues on his current path (or at least a similar one). In that case, Milwaukee must consider him just a step behind Burnes and Woodruff and far better than your typical fifth starter. His performance would legitimately make him the third-best starter. It also gives Houser and Peralta some good competition to keep fighting to prove their worth in a potentially stacked rotation. Should the Brewers make the playoffs as expected, Lauer could create some difficult decisions for manager Craig Counsell come October. That is a great place to be if you're a Brewers fan.
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