Do the Brewers Need to Trade Christian Yelich?

8 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

Stick him at DH (or 1b).  Hope for 3 WAR.  Repeat for 5 years (ugh).

Not many options other than that. 

At 3 WAR he's not a disaster.  Not good, but not a disaster.

 

3WAR is optimistic.

1 hour ago, DR28 said:

We need to replace Renfroe’s production… Cant rely on Mitchell or Taylor to do that alone.

Think we’ll add a cheap vet OF on a 1 year deal to play RF.

since we just traded a RF who would have been on a 1yr contract at a reasonable cost, I can see no support for this notion.

They might have someone on the OD roster (and some of you think this will be Perkins), just to delay the clock on one of our rookies, but it won't be about replacing Renfroe's production.

1 hour ago, Lajitas said:

You didn't present any evidence.  You presented your opinion.

You know what you get when you rush a young talented player?  You get Keston Hiura.  

 

Here's the literal evidence I presented with my opinion: 

1) Frelick was a college draft pick whose calling card was his elite hit tool. Those are precisely the types of guys who move quickly through the minors as Frelick already has. Next step in the development process: facing MLB pitching.

2) He's slashed .331/.403/.476 in 638 at-bats during his minor league career with one of the highest contact rates in the minors. This is highlighted by his hitting .365/.435/.508 against AAA pitching, including more walks than strikeouts. Again, nothing left for him to prove in the minors.

3) The Brewers are incentivized to have him on the opening day roster next season as they could be eligible for an extra draft pick if he finishes in the top 3 of the rookie of the year vote. Considering the above AAA stats and his 70-grade hit tool, that is certainly a plausible outcome.

Overall, all of this evidence points to him being on the MLB roster by late April at the latest, if not by opening day.

Your evidence??? Keston Hiura? That's not really evidence considering they're different players. Keston Hiura exhibited a growing K rate as he progressed through the minors, which in hindsight, was a huge warning sign as to how his production would translate to the majors. Frelick, on the other hand, struck out a mere 7.4% of the time in AAA, with one of the highest contact rates in all the minors. 

Hiura didn't fail because they rushed him through the minors. Hiura failed because he had a huge hole in his swing that was exposed once he faced major league pitching. 

2 hours ago, DR28 said:

We need to replace Renfroe’s production… Cant rely on Mitchell or Taylor to do that alone.

Think we’ll add a cheap vet OF on a 1 year deal to play RF.

I don't see the logic of trading Renfroe, who had one year left, and then going ahead and signing a worse player on a one year contract. That pretty much negates the payroll space you created while providing you with lesser production and reestablishing a roadblock for your youngsters. 

You guys make good points but my god we are making a mistake going with at some point all rookie OFs.

I don't think they start the season with an all rookie OF, but two would be realistic.  Then the 3rd you bring up with Turang by the ASB.  If they do that, I'll actually pay for Ballys.  I would be 100% more interested in watching that team play every night vs a team with a couple of Renfroe-lights.

11 hours ago, Lajitas said:

He also hit about 50 points higher all the way across his typical slash line in those few AAA games.  They'll wait to see if it continues.  Again, if they didn't have other options, I would agree.  But they'll cycle through those first, and bring him up only if all the others fail.

Ok...so he was BETTER at AAA. Explain why that's a negative? And he played 6 fewer games at AAA than he did at AA(52 games) and he played less than 40 games at HiA. 

And he had a high BABIP....at all 3 levels, so it's not like he was lucky. He had an elite hit tool when we drafted him. 

He had a 7% K rate. He's ready. It's obvious he's ready. The only reason he wouldn't be in the OD roster would be due to service time or injury. 

12 hours ago, Lajitas said:

People need to check themselves with thinking Frelick and/or Wiemer are going to be starting this season.

"check themselves?" Are they in danger of wrecking themselves?

Also, the person you quoted...very specifically said he expected Wiemer to make the 2024 Opening day roster and that he should make his debut at SOME point next year. So his inclusion here makes little sense. 

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't see the logic of trading Renfroe, who had one year left, and then going ahead and signing a worse player on a one year contract. That pretty much negates the payroll space you created while providing you with lesser production and reestablishing a roadblock for your youngsters. 

I think that may have been part of the rationale behind Perkins. Really good vs lefties the last two years, can play all 3 OF positions. I doubt they're banking on him on the opening day, but he's a low risk signing and if he can just be a platoon player, he could have value. 

Maybe Ruiz fits in and they think more of him than we do. Or maybe there's some Willy Adames type trade we make but instead of a young arm, it's a 5 tool OFer like Mitchell. Turang can at least hit lefties well for a lefty. Wong had a OPS in the .400s last year. Also...Willy was a ~.280/.360 hitter for the Brewers in '21. Just that version of him for a full season would be huge. Though he too had reverse splits. 

Perhaps they'll trade Wong, try and shore up the catching position with Contreras...who knows at this point. That's unlikely, but they clearly have other moved planned. They have to if the plan is to "build around Burnes and Woodruff."

It'd also be great if Wiemer stayed healthy and was a breakout star next year for us. He still has such a wide range of outcomes, I wouldn't be surprised if was a middle of the order hitter for us by next August.

6 hours ago, Lajitas said:

You didn't present any evidence.  You presented your opinion.

You know what you get when you rush a young talented player?  You get Keston Hiura.  

 

Or Juan Soto, or Ryan Braun, or Albert Pujols, Or JJ Hardy or...MOST great players. 

Hiura is a particularly strange counter-point. So he came up, half a season, hit 19 HRs, hit over .300 with an OPS of ~.940.

So it took a year for his being rushed to catch up to him?

There is no point in keeping prospects in the minor for some arbitrary # of games that you believe to be significant. I think Soto had ~20 games above rookie ball. 

Kwan had even fewer games and is about as similar a player as you can get to Frelick(since I'm sure you'll get hung up on the Soto thing and suggest someone is claiming Frelick=Soto). He had 77 games in AA and AAA.

There are a LOT of top prospects who skip levels or go straight from AA to MLB. Why? Because...again, no point in keeping a guy with an 1.100 OPS or a .365 BA in AAA when he can help your team just for the sake of more ABs. 

6 hours ago, DR28 said:

You guys make good points but my god we are making a mistake going with at some point all rookie OFs.

Barring injuries, Yelich will play 50-100 games in the OF. Taylor will play 100-130 games in the OF.

Figure

Yelich 300 PA (plate appearances)

Taylor 450 PA

Mitchell 450 PA

Frelick 450 PA

Ruiz/Wiemar/Perkins/Other 450 PA

Of course, many of them will get some PA at DH.

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Barring injuries, Yelich will play 50-100 games in the OF. Taylor will play 100-130 games in the OF.

Figure

Yelich 300 PA (plate appearances)

Taylor 450 PA

Mitchell 450 PA

Frelick 450 PA

Ruiz/Wiemar/Perkins/Other 450 PA

Of course, many of them will get some PA at DH.

I'd look at it more in games (there are 486 games for the OF), obviously it is hard to predict injuries so that would change everything.

Yeli 60 games (80-90 at DH), Frelich 140 games, Mitchell 140, Taylor/Ruiz 110 games, Perkins/Weimer 36 games.

This is assuming Mitchell and Frelich both hit lefties ok, the more I look at it the more I just want Yeli at full time DH with Ruiz, Frelich, Mitchell in the OF everyday and then Taylor take one of the lefties spots for lhp and spot starts for Ruiz. Maybe Weimer gets a chance to start if/when someone gets injured.

A team like the White Sox that has two horrible contracts they'd like to unload (Grandal's $18.25 million for 23, and Leury Garcia's $11 million over 23 and 24) might have interest in a guy like Yelich if the Brewers pick up about $10 million per year from 24 through 28.  The problem with that is that Yelich is still a solid major league player, but Grandal and Garcia are older and both look like their done.  If they did that, the Brewers would save about half of Yelich's remaining contract.  That's about as good as they can do.

If the team was still looking at trading Burnes and Adames, it makes sense to play Frelick.  But a team looking at contending isn't going to give regular playing time to a rookie with zero Major League experience (not even September call-up experience) and less than 100 games above A ball, especially one that is barely in the top 50 prospect list.

I'm done with this.  And I fully expect all you to be whining come April when Frelick is back in AAA.

I really feel like the tone of brewer fan discussions is worse than in the old days.  Makes me sad, makes me post and read a lot less.

The article framing, or maybe just its headline, are odd, to me at least.  'Need to' is not the question at all, it's rather is a trade worth it given that the contract will be widely perceived to have significant negative value and might frankly be at an all time low given the remaining years.  It will cost a bunch of money and/or assets to unload that contract, assumings it's even possible to do so.  

On 11/29/2022 at 1:04 AM, Seth Stohs said:

If we are to believe that the Brewers intend to build around Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, and they want to extend Willy Adames, and they want to do so within a realistic budget, the team may have to trade Christian Yelich. 

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Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

According to the immensely valuable Cot's Contract, the Brewers' Opening Day, 26-man payroll was a team-high $131,930,160, the 19th-highest in baseball. If we are to assume that Mark Attanasio has directed new President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold to keep payroll approximately the same, they will need to get creative. 

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are projected to make $11.4 million and $11.0 million, respectively. Brewers MVP Willy Adames is projected to get a bump to $9.2 million. Recently, we projected what a long-term contract with the two aces (Burnes, Woodruff) might look like. Summary... it's going to be a lot. If Willy Adames was a free agent, he would likely get a contract in the same price range as what Dansby Swanson might get this offseason.

The team tendered Hunter Renfroe and then traded him to the Angels for three pitchers rather than pay him about $11 million as well. 

The Yelich Contract
When the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the 2018 season, he was in the middle of a seven-year, $49.57 million deal. However, right before the 2020 season, the Brewers and Yelich agreed to replace the final two seasons of that deal with a new nine-year, $215 million deal that includes an option that could take the contract through the 2029 season. There are six years and $156 million remaining on the deal, plus the option. 

As has been pointed out in the Comments below, Yelich was also given full no-trade protection. Of course, that only means that he would have to OK any trade, not that he is untradeable, but it is another factor making it a difficult situation. 

The Yelich Production 
Yelich came to the Brewers and in his first season (2018), he won the National League MVP when he hit .326/.402/.598 (1.000) with 34 doubles, seven triples, 36 home runs, and 110 RBI. He came back in 2019 and was even better (but he finished 2nd in MVP voting). He hit .329/.429/.671 (1.100) with 29 doubles, three triples, 44 homers, and 97 RBI. Over those seasons, he stole 52 bases and was caught just six times. 

And then, almost inexplicably, his production plummeted.  In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, it's understandable because of the smaller sample size. He hit just .205/.356/.430 (.786) with seven doubles and 12 homers. Great on-base skills, but very low average. However, in 2021, things actually got worse. He hit .248/.362/.373 (.736) with 19 doubles and just nine home runs. In twice as many games, he hit three fewer homers than the previous year. Where did the power go? 

2022 was Yelich's age-30 season. He was able to play in 154 games and was a Gold Glove finalist. However, he hit .252/.355/.383 (.738) with 25 doubles and 14 homers. Three consecutive seasons with reduced power has become a theme, a trend... the new normal? 

Replacing Yelich 
Losing both corner outfield starters would seem difficult to replace, and that's fair. Tyrone Taylor will likely return. Garrett Mitchell came up in late August and had a solid month. He was named Best Rookie by Brewer Fanatic (video). In 28 games, he hit .311/.373/.459 (.832) with three doubles, two homers, nine RBI, and eight stolen bases (without being caught). 

Fellow Top 5 Brewers prospects, outfielders Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer both finished their seasons with two months at Triple-A Nashville.

Frelick was the team's top draft pick in 2021 (15th overall) from Boston College. He began the season at High-A Wisconsin where he posted an .847 OPS. He moved up to Double-A Biloxi and in 52 games, he hit .317/.380/.464 (.844) with 12 doubles, three triples, and five home runs. Then he finished his season with 46 games in Nashville where he hit .365/.435/.508 (.943) with 11 doubles, two triples and four homers. Combined, he had 24 steals in 32 attempts. He was named Brewer Fanatic's Minor League Hitter of the Year. 

Wiemer was the Brewers fourth-round pick in 2020 from Cincinnati. He began the 2022 season at Biloxi. After a huge start, he struggled, but in 84 games, he hit .243/.321/.440 (.761) with 19 doubles, 15 homers and 47 RBI. He also had 25 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He finished the season with Nashville and in 43 games, he hit .287/.368/.520 (.888) with 15 doubles, six homers and 30 RBI. He was 6-for-8 in steal attempts. (Brewers Spotlight with Joey Wiemer: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3) 

Wiemer will turn 24 before the 2023 season, and Frelick will turn 23 shortly after the season begins. Both are good outfielders with strong arms. Speaking of good outfielders, Jackson Chourio was named a Rawlings minor-league Gold Glove winner for his work in center field in 2022. 

Chourio, who won't turn 19 until after the 2023 season begins, started his season in Extended Spring Training. Less than a month into the season, he was promoted to Low-A Carolina. In 62 games, he hit .324/.373/.600 (.973) with 23 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs. He moved up to High-A Wisconsin and played in 31 games. He hit .252/.317/.488 (.805) with six doubles and eight homers. He even ended the season by getting a week (six games) with Double-A Biloxi. He had just two hits in 23 at-bats (.087), but one was a double. He was 16-for-20 in stolen base attempts. 

Chourio certainly isn't ready to join the Brewers quite yet, but at this stage, it's hard to put too many limitations on what the top prospect can do by the end of the 2023 season. Frelick and Wiemer are at least close to being ready to join Mitchell in the Brewers outfield. Will they be able to match the production of Yelich and Renfroe? Probably not, but it may be close. The defense in the outfield would certainly be strong. 

As important, at least in this conversation and discussion, those three outfield spots would all cost the league minimum or slightly more than it for 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons before arbitration would hit. That is significant to a team trying to lock up their two aces and potentially their franchise shortstop. 

A quick glance at the Brewer Fanatic End-of-Season Prospect Rankings show: 

1. Jackson Chourio
2. Sal Frelick
3. Joey Wiemer
4. Garrett Mitchell 

The Return for Yelich 
This is where things kind of get difficult. Would any team be interested in a 30-year-old former MVP who hasn't hit for average or power the past three seasons, but at least does have a great eye at the plate and solid defense, but is owed another $156 over the next six years?

I can't imagine that any team would be interested in acquiring Yelich's contract in a straight trade. If they did, the return might be less than the team received for Hunter Renfroe last week. If the Brewers are willing to eat a large chunk of the remaining contract, maybe up to $40-50 million, they might receive a decent prospect in return. It's also possible any team acquiring Yelich would insist that the Brewers take on a contract or two that they don't want. That's the give-and-take, the negotiations that would make such a deal really difficult to predict or even imagine. 

What's Going to Happen?
Alright, I intentionally wrote the above without having a definitive answer for how this situation could or even should play out. Here is where the discussions and conversations really begin. 

The reality is that Christian Yelich is not a bad player. He is a solid contributor to a big-league team. He plays good defense. He is solid near the top of the order because he does have good on-base skills. He is capable of hitting doubles and the occasional homer. He runs the bases well. He plays solid defense in left field. 

The 'problem' is that after arguably being grossly underpaid during the first seven seasons of his big-league career, he has been a big overpaid the past three seasons. FanGraphs says that he was worth 2.3 fWAR in 2022, or about $18.1 million. In 2021, he was at 1.6 fWAR, or $12 million. If I'm a team that is interested in a good player but maybe would prefer to only pay him about $16 million per year, the Brewers might have to throw in about $60 million in a potential trade. 

I think Matt Arnold and his staff should, and certainly will, have some initial conversations with teams about Yelich just to gauge interest and maybe even get some sense of what a trade might look like. It is hard to imagine that something can get done this offseason. If it can be, then Arnold deserves another promotion and raise. 

And I don't think that it is necessarily a bad thing to have Christian Yelich and his contract return in 2023. First, he will still be just 31 and he can do a lot of good things on the field. In addition, the three outfield prospects (plus the very young Mitchell) are not necessarily ready to jump into the team's lineup on opening day. Having the stability of the generally-healthy Yelich at the top of the order and in left field can be a positive and allow the youngsters a little more time to develop. 

In addition, even if Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames all stick around and get pay bumps via arbitration or contract extension, their 2023 numbers won't be as big as they will certainly be in 2024 and beyond. And so they can absorb Yelich's contract and still maintain a reasonable budget and have a competitive team in 2023. In addition, just because we may want the Brewers to reach long-term agreements to keep The Big Three around for a long time does not mean that they will be able to do that. The players may want to experience free agency, or their contract demands might be too much. Those decisions may also determine whether or not the Brewers decide to trade Kolten Wong, or even Eric Lauer? 

So I would conclude by saying that the Brewers should have a dialogue with other organizations regarding Yelich, but they shouldn't feel like it is mandatory to do this offseason. If they can, and it helps them lock up their aces, great. If not, they still have the talent to make another run in 2023. 

Your Turn
Feel free to share your thoughts in the Comments below. 

 

 

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They won’t be able to trade Yelich, what they’ll possibly have to do is extend Adames and Woodruff/Burnes in season, I really think they’ll extend Adames and Burnes and trade Woodruff.

You can’t turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young Candidate every year and Adames as a cornerstone of the team.

Brewers can still have a very good rotation and compete without Woodruff, especially while getting a veteran or two and development of Aaron Ashby.

I really think now is the time to trade guys like Taylor and Lauer to get younger and cheaper players who can be in the minors for one year or ready.

Lauer can get a decent return, and Taylor can get a young back of the end starter that’s cheap (like Zach Plesac)

Woodruff on the other hand can get a lot of major league ready talent, and guys that can take place at the hot corner, rotation, and first base in the near future.

Woodruff to Mets for INF INF Ronny Mauricio, P Matt Allen, INF Mark Vientos, P Joel Diaz, and P Jose Butto 

Vientos is major league ready at first base or DH, Mauricio can be our 3B of the future and blocked by Baty and Lindor

Matt Allen can be a swing starter in a year and develop, while the other two are young and promising 

I wouldn't go getting attached to anyone.  This is what leads to the Yelich contract.  Just because you were good doesn't mean you will be good in the future.  Baseball like any sport is a team sport.  Let Arnold do what is best for the team not the player.  

Adames is peaking trade him now at peak value.  There are plenty of shortstops.  Houston just won the world series with Jeremy Pena who is in his first year.

15 hours ago, Lajitas said:

You didn't present any evidence.  You presented your opinion.

You know what you get when you rush a young talented player?  You get Keston Hiura.  

 

Or Juan Soto. Cherry picking one player doesn't prove a point. 

I don't like rushing prospects, but as has already been noted, Frelick was a college pick who was expected to move fairly quickly through the system. He's a "bat to ball" guy who has put his bat on the ball at every level he's been at. 

AAA isn't a parking spot where good prospects spend a lot of time. Many of your best prospects spend little to no time at AAA. It is filled up with lesser-talented prospects trying to prove themselves, and guys with some MLB experience trying to get back to the show. 

The biggest step in the minors is the move to AA. If players dominate after making that jump, they're probably MLB ready.

2 minutes ago, monty57 said:

The biggest step in the minors is the move to AA. If players dominate after making that jump, they're probably MLB ready.

And Frelick had more success in AA than Mitchell, who was obviously called up before him. You can’t keep a guy like Frelick in the minors forever. He should be starting OD.

33 minutes ago, Grabkoj said:

They won’t be able to trade Yelich, what they’ll possibly have to do is extend Adames and Woodruff/Burnes in season, I really think they’ll extend Adames and Burnes and trade Woodruff.

You can’t turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young Candidate every year and Adames as a cornerstone of the team.

Brewers can still have a very good rotation and compete without Woodruff, especially while getting a veteran or two and development of Aaron Ashby.

I really think now is the time to trade guys like Taylor and Lauer to get younger and cheaper players who can be in the minors for one year or ready.

Lauer can get a decent return, and Taylor can get a young back of the end starter that’s cheap (like Zach Plesac)

Woodruff on the other hand can get a lot of major league ready talent, and guys that can take place at the hot corner, rotation, and first base in the near future.

Woodruff to Mets for INF INF Ronny Mauricio, P Matt Allen, INF Mark Vientos, P Joel Diaz, and P Jose Butto 

Vientos is major league ready at first base or DH, Mauricio can be our 3B of the future and blocked by Baty and Lindor

Matt Allen can be a swing starter in a year and develop, while the other two are young and promising 

First off, welcome to the board.

I don't think they'll have the payroll room to extend both Adames and one of the pitchers. They will probably have a hard time fitting one of them under budget with the Yelich deal on the books (they could do it, it'd just keep them from doing other things).

That said, the Yelich deal is a good example why you shouldn't use the logic "You can't turn away Burnes who is a Cy Young candidate..." Yelich was coming off of two straight MVP-caliber seasons, and we are talking about trading Burnes along with Yelich for nothing just to get out of the contract.

Big money, multi-year contracts are very risky for any team, but they are especially risky to small revenue teams like the Brewers. We are far better getting pre-arby guys to extend, like we have recently done with Ashby and Peralta, and trading away players when they're getting close to free agency. It may not be fun as a fan to see your favorite players traded away, but it's the reality of baseball with the system they have in place.

2 hours ago, Lajitas said:

If the team was still looking at trading Burnes and Adames, it makes sense to play Frelick.  But a team looking at contending isn't going to give regular playing time to a rookie with zero Major League experience (not even September call-up experience) and less than 100 games above A ball, especially one that is barely in the top 50 prospect list.

I'm done with this.  And I fully expect all you to be whining come April when Frelick is back in AAA.

This season's rookies of the year (Julio Rodriguez and Michael Harris) came from playoff teams (Seattle and Atlanta), neither of which are small-market teams who only play rookies because they can't afford to hold onto veterans. These guys played major roles that helped their teams win a lot of games.

Sometimes your best option is a rookie. Talent sometimes beats our experience. If Seattle wanted to trade us Rodriguez for Renfroe at the start of last season, I'm sure Stearns would have been pretty happy, regardless of the fact that Renfroe had a lot more MLB experience. 

People act like veterans are a guaranteed success, while rookies are guaranteed to struggle. That's not true. Everyone has their ups-and-downs, but the more talented player will generally do better over time than the lesser-talented player. Frelick is the most talented option we have. If we wanted to trade him, we'd get a better package than Taylor/Ruiz/Perkins in return because he's worth more than all three of them combined.

Is it a stretch for the Counsell platoon love to use Taylor, Perkins, and Ruiz RH side with Mitchell, Frelick , and Yelich LH side? Wiemer imo is the OF they sit back on to avoid Super 2.  Taylor honestly feels like a trade candidate to a Pittsburgh/Miami/Kansas City type rebuild club, keeping Frelick or Mitchell in the lineup regardless of platoon at CF position. This would allow Ruiz&Wiemer freedom on option if/when needed(I imagine Taylor doesn't have 1)  Perkins being the placeholder/depth until Milw is forced to call up Wiemer or Chourio.  

I'm kinda surprised that they haven't given Wiemer a 1B glove. He's 6'5 and we have nothing in the pipeline. He can split time between 1B and the OF and get 400AB