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According to the immensely valuable Cot's Contract, the Brewers' Opening Day, 26-man payroll was a team-high $131,930,160, the 19th-highest in baseball. If we are to assume that Mark Attanasio has directed new President of Baseball Operations Matt Arnold to keep payroll approximately the same, they will need to get creative.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are projected to make $11.4 million and $11.0 million, respectively. Brewers MVP Willy Adames is projected to get a bump to $9.2 million. Recently, we projected what a long-term contract with the two aces (Burnes, Woodruff) might look like. Summary... it's going to be a lot. If Willy Adames was a free agent, he would likely get a contract in the same price range as what Dansby Swanson might get this offseason.
The team tendered Hunter Renfroe and then traded him to the Angels for three pitchers rather than pay him about $11 million as well.
The Yelich Contract
When the Brewers acquired Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the 2018 season, he was in the middle of a seven-year, $49.57 million deal. However, right before the 2020 season, the Brewers and Yelich agreed to replace the final two seasons of that deal with a new nine-year, $215 million deal that includes an option that could take the contract through the 2029 season. There are six years and $156 million remaining on the deal, plus the option.
As has been pointed out in the Comments below, Yelich was also given full no-trade protection. Of course, that only means that he would have to OK any trade, not that he is untradeable, but it is another factor making it a difficult situation.
The Yelich Production
Yelich came to the Brewers and in his first season (2018), he won the National League MVP when he hit .326/.402/.598 (1.000) with 34 doubles, seven triples, 36 home runs, and 110 RBI. He came back in 2019 and was even better (but he finished 2nd in MVP voting). He hit .329/.429/.671 (1.100) with 29 doubles, three triples, 44 homers, and 97 RBI. Over those seasons, he stole 52 bases and was caught just six times.
And then, almost inexplicably, his production plummeted. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, it's understandable because of the smaller sample size. He hit just .205/.356/.430 (.786) with seven doubles and 12 homers. Great on-base skills, but very low average. However, in 2021, things actually got worse. He hit .248/.362/.373 (.736) with 19 doubles and just nine home runs. In twice as many games, he hit three fewer homers than the previous year. Where did the power go?
2022 was Yelich's age-30 season. He was able to play in 154 games and was a Gold Glove finalist. However, he hit .252/.355/.383 (.738) with 25 doubles and 14 homers. Three consecutive seasons with reduced power has become a theme, a trend... the new normal?
Replacing Yelich
Losing both corner outfield starters would seem difficult to replace, and that's fair. Tyrone Taylor will likely return. Garrett Mitchell came up in late August and had a solid month. He was named Best Rookie by Brewer Fanatic (video). In 28 games, he hit .311/.373/.459 (.832) with three doubles, two homers, nine RBI, and eight stolen bases (without being caught).
Fellow Top 5 Brewers prospects, outfielders Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer both finished their seasons with two months at Triple-A Nashville.
Frelick was the team's top draft pick in 2021 (15th overall) from Boston College. He began the season at High-A Wisconsin where he posted an .847 OPS. He moved up to Double-A Biloxi and in 52 games, he hit .317/.380/.464 (.844) with 12 doubles, three triples, and five home runs. Then he finished his season with 46 games in Nashville where he hit .365/.435/.508 (.943) with 11 doubles, two triples and four homers. Combined, he had 24 steals in 32 attempts. He was named Brewer Fanatic's Minor League Hitter of the Year.
Wiemer was the Brewers fourth-round pick in 2020 from Cincinnati. He began the 2022 season at Biloxi. After a huge start, he struggled, but in 84 games, he hit .243/.321/.440 (.761) with 19 doubles, 15 homers and 47 RBI. He also had 25 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He finished the season with Nashville and in 43 games, he hit .287/.368/.520 (.888) with 15 doubles, six homers and 30 RBI. He was 6-for-8 in steal attempts. (Brewers Spotlight with Joey Wiemer: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3)
Wiemer will turn 24 before the 2023 season, and Frelick will turn 23 shortly after the season begins. Both are good outfielders with strong arms. Speaking of good outfielders, Jackson Chourio was named a Rawlings minor-league Gold Glove winner for his work in center field in 2022.
Chourio, who won't turn 19 until after the 2023 season begins, started his season in Extended Spring Training. Less than a month into the season, he was promoted to Low-A Carolina. In 62 games, he hit .324/.373/.600 (.973) with 23 doubles, five triples, and 12 home runs. He moved up to High-A Wisconsin and played in 31 games. He hit .252/.317/.488 (.805) with six doubles and eight homers. He even ended the season by getting a week (six games) with Double-A Biloxi. He had just two hits in 23 at-bats (.087), but one was a double. He was 16-for-20 in stolen base attempts.
Chourio certainly isn't ready to join the Brewers quite yet, but at this stage, it's hard to put too many limitations on what the top prospect can do by the end of the 2023 season. Frelick and Wiemer are at least close to being ready to join Mitchell in the Brewers outfield. Will they be able to match the production of Yelich and Renfroe? Probably not, but it may be close. The defense in the outfield would certainly be strong.
As important, at least in this conversation and discussion, those three outfield spots would all cost the league minimum or slightly more than it for 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons before arbitration would hit. That is significant to a team trying to lock up their two aces and potentially their franchise shortstop.
A quick glance at the Brewer Fanatic End-of-Season Prospect Rankings show:
- Jackson Chourio
- Sal Frelick
- Joey Wiemer
- Garrett Mitchell
The Return for Yelich
This is where things kind of get difficult. Would any team be interested in a 30-year-old former MVP who hasn't hit for average or power the past three seasons, but at least does have a great eye at the plate and solid defense, but is owed another $156 over the next six years?
I can't imagine that any team would be interested in acquiring Yelich's contract in a straight trade. If they did, the return might be less than the team received for Hunter Renfroe last week. If the Brewers are willing to eat a large chunk of the remaining contract, maybe up to $40-50 million, they might receive a decent prospect in return. It's also possible any team acquiring Yelich would insist that the Brewers take on a contract or two that they don't want. That's the give-and-take, the negotiations that would make such a deal really difficult to predict or even imagine.
What's Going to Happen?
Alright, I intentionally wrote the above without having a definitive answer for how this situation could or even should play out. Here is where the discussions and conversations really begin.
The reality is that Christian Yelich is not a bad player. He is a solid contributor to a big-league team. He plays good defense. He is solid near the top of the order because he does have good on-base skills. He is capable of hitting doubles and the occasional homer. He runs the bases well. He plays solid defense in left field.
The 'problem' is that after arguably being grossly underpaid during the first seven seasons of his big-league career, he has been a big overpaid the past three seasons. FanGraphs says that he was worth 2.3 fWAR in 2022, or about $18.1 million. In 2021, he was at 1.6 fWAR, or $12 million. If I'm a team that is interested in a good player but maybe would prefer to only pay him about $16 million per year, the Brewers might have to throw in about $60 million in a potential trade.
I think Matt Arnold and his staff should, and certainly will, have some initial conversations with teams about Yelich just to gauge interest and maybe even get some sense of what a trade might look like. It is hard to imagine that something can get done this offseason. If it can be, then Arnold deserves another promotion and raise.
And I don't think that it is necessarily a bad thing to have Christian Yelich and his contract return in 2023. First, he will still be just 31 and he can do a lot of good things on the field. In addition, the three outfield prospects (plus the very young Mitchell) are not necessarily ready to jump into the team's lineup on opening day. Having the stability of the generally-healthy Yelich at the top of the order and in left field can be a positive and allow the youngsters a little more time to develop.
In addition, even if Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames all stick around and get pay bumps via arbitration or contract extension, their 2023 numbers won't be as big as they will certainly be in 2024 and beyond. And so they can absorb Yelich's contract and still maintain a reasonable budget and have a competitive team in 2023. In addition, just because we may want the Brewers to reach long-term agreements to keep The Big Three around for a long time does not mean that they will be able to do that. The players may want to experience free agency, or their contract demands might be too much. Those decisions may also determine whether or not the Brewers decide to trade Kolten Wong, or even Eric Lauer?
So I would conclude by saying that the Brewers should have a dialogue with other organizations regarding Yelich, but they shouldn't feel like it is mandatory to do this offseason. If they can, and it helps them lock up their aces, great. If not, they still have the talent to make another run in 2023.
Your Turn
Feel free to share your thoughts in the Comments below.
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