Disappointing Phillies Provide Brewers a Chance to Bounce Back

To this point, Dave Dombrowski’s strategy to buy Philly’s next ring has appeared rudderless, with a team four games under .500 and a historically bad defense. Adding insult to injury is that the two major free agent acquisitions in former Cub Kyle Schwarber and former Red Nick Castellanos have combined for an uninspiring 0.2 WAR this season. With win-now expectations and a losing record entering June, the seat got too hot for bygone manager Joe Girardi, who was replaced by long-time MLB coach Rob Thomson.

If the Phillies aren’t going to be sellers come July the time to turn the ship around is now. The Brewers, struggling with attrition and the natural fatigue that comes with almost three consecutive weeks of games played, spent Monday enjoying a much needed day off. Will the Crew emerge refreshed, re-focused and ready to feast on a struggling Philadelphia team, or will the Phils storm into Cream City with a new manager and an even bigger chip on their already gritty shoulders? Let’s break down the match-ups.

Tuesday June 7th

Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (4-3 4.69 ERA)

Milwaukee: Jason Alexander (0-0 2.57 ERA)

Of the three forthcoming games this is the most difficult to predict. Ranger Suarez is somehow already in his fifth year in the majors, but only the second where he’s seen real innings. Last year he was ace adjacent, pitching to a ridiculous 1.36 ERA over 106 innings pitched. This wipeout slider that saw him dominant in 2021 hasn’t returned to this point and it’s manifested in a 4.69 ERA (4.45 FIP), realities that don’t pair well with an ungainly defense. 

On the other hand the Brewers have 29-year-old undrafted rookie Jason Alexander on the mound. Strung together these words may look pejorative, but really they are just a series of adjectives painting an unlikely story for the Brewers right-hander. Alexander looked downright convincing in his major league debut against the Cubs, surrendering two earned runs over seven innings in what was ultimately a loss for the Crew. 

Wednesday June 8th

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (3-4 3.92 ERA)

Milwaukee: Adrian Houser (3-5 3.51 ERA) 

Two pitchers with fairly similar numbers square off here. Aaron Nola is an interesting character as he’s perennially discussed as this ace-in-waiting, and while he has had a few glimmers of objective dominance, he hasn't meaningfully approached Cy Young contention since 2018. Dominant or not, is he still capable of dicing up a streaky-to-weak offense? Affirmative, and if the Brewers need to focus in on one pitcher in this series, I’d say it’s Nola. 

The Phillies definitely have their work cut out for them though, with a more than competent pitcher in Adrian Houser pitching for Milwaukee. It’s been a rough stretch circumstantially for Houser. A tough luck loss a few weeks ago was followed by an in-season arbitration loss (a result of the labor dispute), which was followed further by an uncharacteristic loss to the Cardinals, who were previously dominated by Houser. Still, circumstantial issues are exactly that, and with a little run support it seems like a pretty even match-up. 

Thursday June 9th

Philadelphia: Zach Eflin (2-4 3.88 ERA)

Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (3-3 2.50 ERA)

An ERA pushing four makes it difficult to call this year a “breakout” for Zach Eflin, but (if for no other reason than that he’s been predictable) it would definitely be fair to say that he’s quietly been a bright spot on a struggling team. In a contract year, Eflin’s sturdy arm has provided a few morale boosting moments, chief among then 12 K’s against the Los Angeles Dodgers. With a comparably punchless offense in the Brewers, Eflin poses a very real threat.

Real threat or not, it has to do something to steady the Brewers nerves knowing that opposing Eflin will be reigning Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, who is two months into a campaign that looks every bit as nasty as his 2021 campaign. When Corbin Burnes is throwing there’s very little concise analysis that needs to be done. A victory for him relies on two words: run support. 

Predictions

I think Milwaukee wins the series, two low offense games to one. There are too many narrow variables to feel confident in an outright sweep, and while the Phillies are disappointing they aren’t bad, and the Brewers are still beaten up and not exactly possessing the hottest bats in the league. They key to victory will be barreling balls and challenging the Phillies defense, working counts and getting into the Phillies bullpen. If the Crew can put up a few runs in each game, they are likely to sweep, but that’s a bit of an if.