Cardinals Preview: Time for a Showdown

The bounceback series against the Cincinnati Reds has to be a tremendous relief for a Brewers team, but they didn’t emerge from the weekend unscathed. A player as emblematic as any as to what it means to be Brewer, the venerable Lorenzo Cain, was designated for assignment. The move, while not unwarranted, still felt a little jarring to the Milwaukee faithful who all appreciated Cain for what has been an impressive career. 

Meanwhile the Cardinals were beaten by a beloved former member of their own. Michael Wacha bested Adam Wainwright in a battle of Cardinal aces past and present in the opening game of their series versus the Boston Red Sox. That game was followed with vengeance in a routing of Boston in front of their home crowd. Vengeance didn’t last though, and the Cardinals fell 6-4 on Sunday.

What does a series loss against Boston say for Milwaukee, fresh off sweeping the Reds, which culminated in a tie at the top of the NL Central? Anything that could be said will be said on the field. Let’s get to the match-ups.

Monday June 20th
Miles Mikolas (5-4 2.62 ERA)
Corbin Burnes (4-4 2.52 ERA)
Miles Mikolas was one of two pitchers in the last week to make it into the ninth inning with a no hitter. Notably and impressively for Mikolas, it was down to the last strike before Pirates outfield Cal Mitchell laced a ball into center field and ended the bid. Granted it was against a fairly ineffectual Pirates offense, but this performance was reflective of what has been an exceptionally strong campaign by Mikolas so far.

Corbin Burnes continues to serve as the bonafide ace of a young and impressive rotation. After a couple of rocky starts to begin June he gave up two runs in six innings against a leviathan Mets team. Corbin Burnes' win also gave manager Craig Counsell his record breaking 564th win, making him the winningest manager in Milwaukee’s history. 

Tuesday June 21st
Jack Flaherty (0-0 6.00 ERA)
Aaron Ashby (1-5 4.25 ERA)
This should be an interesting game to watch. Facing Flaherty over the last half a decade was an imposing proposition, but in his return from the 60 day IL list he was limited to sixty pitches against the Pirates, and it didn’t exactly go well. Two earned runs over three innings, three hits, two walks and three K’s. What should be authoritatively gleaned from this? Literally nothing, especially given Jack Flaherty’s sparkling career to this point. It does beg the question as to which Flaherty hits the mound on Tuesday, though.

It seems possible that the league may have figured Aaron Ashby out. Either that or the forearm tightness that took him out of the game after 4 ⅓ innings against the Mets last Thursday was hampering his performance aggressively enough to affect his performance. Either way, Ashby’s been roughed up lately, with an ERA jumping from 2.70 two weeks ago, to 4.25 now. 

Wednesday June 22nd
Adam Wainwright (5-5 3.06 ERA)
Eric Lauer (6-2 3.57 ERA)
At the age of 40, Adam Wainwright will almost definitely surpass 300 career innings pitched against the Milwaukee Brewers in this start. It should be said that Adam Wainwright isn’t putting up a solid year for a 40-year-old pitcher, he’s putting up a stellar year for any pitcher of any year. It’s not fair to say that he’s in the running for the Cy Young (which stunningly has eluded him to this point in his career) but that is more thanks to freakishly good pitching in the National League this year. Adam Wainwright has always been a thorn in Milwaukee’s side, pitching to a 2.73 in 296 IP. It’s hard to imagine that he plans on making things easy on the Crew now that they are in the thick of a contentious race to the top of the NL Central.

Eric Lauer hasn’t exactly dazzled in June, and despite a recent W over the Reds (a spurious achievement unto itself) where he surrendered three home runs, it doesn’t seem that Lauer is back to his peak condition. Making matters more optimistic for a pitcher who only weeks ago compelled conversations of ace hood is his 4.75 FIP and gnarly 2.9 BB9. If Lauer wants to get past the dreaded and perennially crafty Cardinals, he’ll need to return to his old form.

Thursday June 23rd
Dakota Hudson (5-3 3.31 ERA)
Jason Alexander (1-0 2.42 ERA)
Dakota Hudson defied all of the odds in his most recent start, but that isn’t always a good thing. Dominance at home and against the Reds have both been hallmarks in Hudson’s career, but the 6-0 record turned to 6-1 after giving up six runs in seven innings. It was wildness that bit him. Despite giving up only two walks, he threw only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes, uncharacteristic for the 27-year-old.

The first three innings were solid for Jason Alexander this Saturday against the Reds, but after seeing him once through the rotation it seems whatever was mystifying Reds batters dissipated. All told the composition of what would ultimately be his first win was built on eight hits, two earned runs, one walk and two K’s. 

Players to Watch

1. Tommy Edman: Other than in brief spurts I’ve heard almost no one talk about this guy, but if you’re looking for a reason as to why the Cardinals are so formidable this year it might be worth examining the player who leads the entire National League in WAR. 

2. Albert Pujols: Don’t be fooled by the highlight reel. His numbers are wretched this year, so sit back and breathe in the last few months of a baseball titan and take comfort in the fact that he can’t hurt you anymore. 

3. Hunter Renfroe: I don’t know if Renfroe has endeared himself to the Milwaukee faithful as much as I’d have expected given his numbers and consistency. The player who we almost inexplicably acquired in exchange for a historically bad Jackie Bradley Jr. has setuple his trade-mates WAR this year. He also homered in each game against the Reds in the last series.

Predictions
The Cardinals are fierce and that rotation is nasty. I know the Brewers hit well against the Reds, but the Reds are not the Cardinals. My heart wants the Brewers to win this series, but my brain has me on guard. I’ll say, with the utmost uncertainty, that the Brewers fight hard and take the series 2-1.