Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

  • Can The Crew Still Make the Playoffs?

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    While not mathematically eliminated quite yet, the Brewers are 7 1/2 games behind the Cardinals in the NL's Central Division. They are left to compete for one of three Wild Card spots in the playoffs. Can they do it? 

    Image courtesy of Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

    Brewers Video

     

    As play begins on Saturday, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves on the outside looking in.  The Cardinals are very likely to win the NL Central. They have a 7 1/2 game lead over the Brewers. The New York Mets have a 2 1/2 game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. The Dodgers have already clinched the NL West title. 

    As of this moment, the Atlanta Braves have clinched a playoff berth. They will have the #4 playoff spot unless they are able to pass the Mets and win the division. Here is a quick look at the Wild Card positioning in the National League heading into Saturday's games. 

    image.png

    As you can see, if the season were to end today, the Brewers would not find themselves in the playoffs. Right now, they are 2 1/2 games behind the Phillies and two games behind the Padres. 

    Here is a quick look at the remaining schedules for those three teams: 

    Milwaukee Brewers (11 games remaining)
    at Cincinnati (2 games)
    Day Off Monday
    Home vs St. Louis (2 games)
    Home vs Miami (4 games)
    Home vs Arizona (3 games) 

    After finishing their series this weekend in Cincinnati, the Brewers will head back to American Family Field for the final nine games of their season. With ace Corbin Burnes on the mound Saturday, the team could use him three times in the final 11 games, which is certainly a positive we can agree. The Cardinals will want to clinch, so I would expect them to continue playing hard in those two games. Miami is well out of contention, but with their young pitchers, especially Sandy Alcantara, they have a good chance to play "spoiler" over the season's final weeks. Finally, the Brewers will end the season with three games against the Diamondbacks. They have been out of contention for a long time, but with Zac Gallen and some young talent such as Corbin Carroll, they will not go down without some fight. 

    San Diego Padres (11 games remaining) 
    at Colorado (2 games) 
    Day Off Monday
    Home vs Dodgers (3 games)
    Home vs White Sox (3 games)
    Home vs Giants (3 games)

    Like the Brewers, the Padres will finish their current series on the road and get a day off on Monday before playing nine games at their home ballpark to end the season. The Padres could theoretically get three more starts from Yu Darvish, and pitchers like Mike Clevinger an d Blake Snell are certainly guys who have pitched in many big games before. The Dodgers have clinched, but they have had a 20+ game lead in the NL West for most of the second half of the season, so they are going to keep playing. The White Sox have been a mess, but they certainly have the talent to test the Padres for three games. Finally, while the Giants had a disappointing 2022 season, they have a solid pitching staff and would likely enjoy playing spoiler to Juan Soto, Manny Machado and the Padres. 

    Philadelphia Phillies (12 games) 
    Home vs Braves (2 games)
    Day off Monday 
    at Cubs (3)
    at Nationals (4)
    at Astros (3) 

    The Phillies have the opposite schedule as they have two more home games before ending the season with ten games on the road, including a doubleheader next Saturday. Atlanta has been great again this year, and the Phillies will face Kyle Wright, who will be making an attempt to win his 20th game of the year, and Charlie Morton. The Cubs aren't a good team, but Wrigley in September can often create its own challenges The Nationals will put up a fight with some of the players acquired the last couple of years in trades of Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and Juan Soto. And ending the season at Houston will also be tough. The Astros will be setting their playoff roster and rotation, but their talent is tremendous. 

    The Path for The Crew
    Let's start with the obvious; the Brewers need to do their part and win games. So, let's say that they win the final two games in Cincinnati, split their series against the Cardinals, win three of four games against the Marlins and end the season with at least two wins against the Diamondbacks. If they are able to do that, they will finish the season by going 8-3. 

    This season, there will be no Game 163s to break ties. Instead, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head matchups between the teams. This year, the Brewers were 3-4 against the Padres and 2-4 against the Phillies. In other words, if they tie for the final Wild Card spot with either team, they will not make the playoffs. They will have to pass them which makes it significantly more challenging. 

    If the Brewers go 8-3 the rest of the way, they would need either the Padres to go 5-6 or the Phillies to go 5-7 to pass them.

    The Brewers can help themselves. If they go 9-2 over the season's final 11 games, then they would pass the Padres if San Diego went 6-5 or if the Phillies went 6-6. 

    Of course, that goes the other way too. If the Brewers go 7-4 the rest of the season, then they would need the Padres to go 4-7 or the Phillies to go 4-8. Not impossible in either case, but much less likely to happen. 

    So what do you think? The Brewers have put themselves in a position where they not only need to win, but they need help too. Do you think the Brewers will pass either the Padres or Phillies and make the playoffs? 

     

     

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily, Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects.
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: SethTweets

    Think you could write a story like this? Brewer Fanatic wants you to develop your voice, find an audience, and we'll pay you to do it. Just fill out this form.

    MORE FROM BREWER FANATIC
    — Latest Brewers coverage from our writers
    — Recent Brewers discussion in our forums
    — Follow Brewer Fanatic via Twitter, Facebook or email

     Share
     Share
    Go to articles

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    OldSchoolSnapper

    OldSchoolSnapper 100

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    OldSchoolSnapper

    OldSchoolSnapper 100

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    sveumrules

    sveumrules 1,325

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    13 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip.

    We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots.

    This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out.

    That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    sveumrules

    sveumrules 1,325

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    13 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip.

    We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots.

    This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out.

    That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    NBBrewFan

    NBBrewFan 543

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    I do look at as a missed opportunity.  There really were only 8 teams in the NL with realistic chances at 6 playoff spots (the current 6 qualifiers plus the Brewers and Giants).  That's pretty good odds coming off a 95 win season. I think more teams in the rebuild/don't care to compete group are going to look at what it did take to make that last playoff spot this year and invest more to get within striking distance of the playoffs. The last offseason with the lockout and delayed Spring Training gave those teams little time to do much and they weren't sure how the new playoff structure would play out.  Now they have the time and the idea and with attendance down in multiple cities I think that means more competition from some of those teams and increasing cost to add those bargain FA like Wong and McCutcheon (and lest we all forget, JBJ), it will also likely drive up costs for mid-level pitching and players like Jace Peterson may be getting starting offers vs. 75% Utility man slots. Our budget and circumstances likely change going forward with being much harder to add a bargain through free agency.  Any economics that increases cost of players disproportionately impacts the smallest market in baseball.  I could be wrong and many of the current owners that are happy just walking away with $30-40M in profit fielding a horrible team will keep doing it, but if attendance keeps going down and it's clear that many of these organizations aren't making any progress there may be more friction among owners about the current welfare system in baseball (revenue sharing) and a push to start investing the revenue sharing. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    NBBrewFan

    NBBrewFan 543

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

    I am content with the season. Maybe not the right word, but, they are not that good. It doesn't feel like a missed opportunity to me. I don't think they are better than any of the 6 ahead of them. If they get in, someone blew it, basically. We are not bad, but not what I'd call good. 

    I do look at as a missed opportunity.  There really were only 8 teams in the NL with realistic chances at 6 playoff spots (the current 6 qualifiers plus the Brewers and Giants).  That's pretty good odds coming off a 95 win season. I think more teams in the rebuild/don't care to compete group are going to look at what it did take to make that last playoff spot this year and invest more to get within striking distance of the playoffs. The last offseason with the lockout and delayed Spring Training gave those teams little time to do much and they weren't sure how the new playoff structure would play out.  Now they have the time and the idea and with attendance down in multiple cities I think that means more competition from some of those teams and increasing cost to add those bargain FA like Wong and McCutcheon (and lest we all forget, JBJ), it will also likely drive up costs for mid-level pitching and players like Jace Peterson may be getting starting offers vs. 75% Utility man slots. Our budget and circumstances likely change going forward with being much harder to add a bargain through free agency.  Any economics that increases cost of players disproportionately impacts the smallest market in baseball.  I could be wrong and many of the current owners that are happy just walking away with $30-40M in profit fielding a horrible team will keep doing it, but if attendance keeps going down and it's clear that many of these organizations aren't making any progress there may be more friction among owners about the current welfare system in baseball (revenue sharing) and a push to start investing the revenue sharing. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    OldSchoolSnapper

    OldSchoolSnapper 100

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    IMO, about 5 of those teams are clearly superior this year. I thought we were a bubble team for most of the season. Padres, without some of their injuries, would be even more comfortably ahead.

    Even if the Brewers make it, I do not think they have a team like 2011, 2018 or even 2019 or 2021. IMO, last season was more of a missed opportunity than this one, just having a bad week against an ATL team they were good enough to play with.

    It's baseball though. Anything can happen.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    OldSchoolSnapper

    OldSchoolSnapper 100

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    IMO, about 5 of those teams are clearly superior this year. I thought we were a bubble team for most of the season. Padres, without some of their injuries, would be even more comfortably ahead.

    Even if the Brewers make it, I do not think they have a team like 2011, 2018 or even 2019 or 2021. IMO, last season was more of a missed opportunity than this one, just having a bad week against an ATL team they were good enough to play with.

    It's baseball though. Anything can happen.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    wiguy94

    wiguy94 392

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

    ESPN now has the Brewers' chances as 33.5%.  SD almost guaranteed to get in the P.O.s.

    538 has us at 47% and Philly at 56%. They project both of us to end at 87-75. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites
    wiguy94

    wiguy94 392

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

    ESPN now has the Brewers' chances as 33.5%.  SD almost guaranteed to get in the P.O.s.

    538 has us at 47% and Philly at 56%. They project both of us to end at 87-75. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites


    Join the conversation

    You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
    Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

    Guest
    Add a comment...

    ×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

      Only 75 emoji are allowed.

    ×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

    ×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

    ×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

    ×

×
×
  • Create New...