Can The Crew Still Make the Playoffs?

Any team can have a 3 game winning or 3 game losing streak at any time. So, sure, it's possible. ESPN has the brewers with a 25% chance of making the playoffs; that's about right. But those chances can change considerably every day the teams play.

Any team can have a 3 game winning or 3 game losing streak at any time. So, sure, it's possible. ESPN has the brewers with a 25% chance of making the playoffs; that's about right. But those chances can change considerably every day the teams play.

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary?  Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500.  Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis.  But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food.  And that's how you miss the playoffs.

Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half.  But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary?  Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500.  Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis.  But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food.  And that's how you miss the playoffs.

Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half.  But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

2 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary?  Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500.  Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis.  But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food.  And that's how you miss the playoffs.

Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half.  But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

Bingo. There was a lot of talk on here about "not being able to beat the good teams", but it's that mark of consistency that has been missing. It's fueled by the "run prevention" which has kept them from the extended bad stretches in past years. When you have that you win more than your share regardless of who you're playing. When you don't, well, here we are.

That, and feeling the need to feel sorry for ourselves for a week after the trade deadline.

2 hours ago, HarveysWBs said:

The saddest thing about this scenario being necessary?  Among NL teams, the Brewers have the third-best record against teams that are currently above .500.  Better than any of the wild card contenders, and better than even St. Louis.  But the Cards, Braves, Phillies, and Padres have beat the ever living snot out of the bad teams, while the Brewers have just played with their food.  And that's how you miss the playoffs.

Of course, the Crew can partially make up for that with a very strong finish over the last week and a half.  But it should never have been necessary in the first place.

Bingo. There was a lot of talk on here about "not being able to beat the good teams", but it's that mark of consistency that has been missing. It's fueled by the "run prevention" which has kept them from the extended bad stretches in past years. When you have that you win more than your share regardless of who you're playing. When you don't, well, here we are.

That, and feeling the need to feel sorry for ourselves for a week after the trade deadline.

ESPN increased the brewers' chances of the playoffs to 30.7% after our win and PHL loss. What's odd is that they give PHL a higher chance than SD, in spite of being a half game back. I guess SD has he harder schedule?

ESPN increased the brewers' chances of the playoffs to 30.7% after our win and PHL loss. What's odd is that they give PHL a higher chance than SD, in spite of being a half game back. I guess SD has he harder schedule?

38 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

ESPN increased the brewers' chances of the playoffs to 30.7% after our win and PHL loss. What's odd is that they give PHL a higher chance than SD, in spite of being a half game back. I guess SD has he harder schedule?

 

Yeah SD has the 7th most difficult schedule remaining (1 more at Coors then 3 against the Dodgers, Giants and White Sox). Philly is 20th (1 more against Atlanta then 4 against the Nats and 3 against the Cubs and Astros). We are 23rd (1 more against the Reds then 2 vs St. Louis, 4 vs Miami and 3 vs Arizona).

A super hopeful 8-2 finish for the Brewers would still require either San Diego to close the year 5-5 or Philly close the year 6-5. It still doesn't look great for us. 

Well, unless the Braves comeback after their rain delay ends, that should just about wrap up the season.

Well, unless the Braves comeback after their rain delay ends, that should just about wrap up the season.

It all comes down to 3 and 4.  For the Brewers to pass either the Phillies or Padres they have to lose 3 less than the Phillies and 4 less than the Padres.

That leaves us with the following possibilities:

I don't think the Brewers will do better than 6-3 over the last 9, but they could go 7-2.  That leaves the Phillies as the likely team to pass and they have to go 5-5 or worse. The Phillies are 12-2 vs the Nats this year so the 4 game series may be the key if the Phillies take 2 from the Cubs  (Wheeler and Nola will be pitching against the Cubs) then the Phillies could easily take 3 of 4 from the Nats and have the 5 wins that requires the Brewers to go 7-2.  Even if the Brewers go 7-2 the Phillies need to win 1 against the Astros (if they go 5-2 against the Cubs/Nats).  If the Brewers go 7-2 the Padres only have to win 4 of their last 9 and with the Giants and White Sox in town to end the season I think even if the Dodgers sweep the Padres, they pick up the 4 wins at home to finish the season. Still a glimmer of hope.  Just don't lose bad to Mikolas on Tuesday and they likely could beat Quintana on Wednesday. 

It all comes down to 3 and 4.  For the Brewers to pass either the Phillies or Padres they have to lose 3 less than the Phillies and 4 less than the Padres.

That leaves us with the following possibilities:

I don't think the Brewers will do better than 6-3 over the last 9, but they could go 7-2.  That leaves the Phillies as the likely team to pass and they have to go 5-5 or worse. The Phillies are 12-2 vs the Nats this year so the 4 game series may be the key if the Phillies take 2 from the Cubs  (Wheeler and Nola will be pitching against the Cubs) then the Phillies could easily take 3 of 4 from the Nats and have the 5 wins that requires the Brewers to go 7-2.  Even if the Brewers go 7-2 the Phillies need to win 1 against the Astros (if they go 5-2 against the Cubs/Nats).  If the Brewers go 7-2 the Padres only have to win 4 of their last 9 and with the Giants and White Sox in town to end the season I think even if the Dodgers sweep the Padres, they pick up the 4 wins at home to finish the season. Still a glimmer of hope.  Just don't lose bad to Mikolas on Tuesday and they likely could beat Quintana on Wednesday. 

After Sunday's games, ESPN has our chances down to 21%. Now SD does have a better chance than PHL.

After Sunday's games, ESPN has our chances down to 21%. Now SD does have a better chance than PHL.

The Brewers really blew a golden opportunity yesterday. That was the last of the Phillies playing a team with anything to play for. Now they play total garbage teams and then face the Astros who will have the #1 seed clinched well beforehand and likely resting guys to some degree. 

HOWEVER:

1) The Brewers schedule is light too

2)The Brewers will be at home, where they have been better.

3) The Phillies, who have been stellar at home, will be entirely on the road. 

In my opinion, the Brewers blew their chance. Expecting the Phillies to go 5-5 against a bunch of teams that care nothing about winning regular season games and 2/3 are garbage on top of that...good luck. If that is what you are depending on, pack your bag for the offseason.

The Brewers really blew a golden opportunity yesterday. That was the last of the Phillies playing a team with anything to play for. Now they play total garbage teams and then face the Astros who will have the #1 seed clinched well beforehand and likely resting guys to some degree. 

HOWEVER:

1) The Brewers schedule is light too

2)The Brewers will be at home, where they have been better.

3) The Phillies, who have been stellar at home, will be entirely on the road. 

In my opinion, the Brewers blew their chance. Expecting the Phillies to go 5-5 against a bunch of teams that care nothing about winning regular season games and 2/3 are garbage on top of that...good luck. If that is what you are depending on, pack your bag for the offseason.

Philly is not playing well though. 10 games is enough to blow this. I'd think the Brewers have to go 7-2 though. Opponent quality matters least of all in baseball. The bad teams left on the schedules are probably more energized honestly at the end of the year when they have a chance to impact results. That's more exciting than slogging through July 20 games under .500.

Philly is not playing well though. 10 games is enough to blow this. I'd think the Brewers have to go 7-2 though. Opponent quality matters least of all in baseball. The bad teams left on the schedules are probably more energized honestly at the end of the year when they have a chance to impact results. That's more exciting than slogging through July 20 games under .500.

If the Brewers had the tie-breaker I would feel better, obviously.  It feels like the Brewers need to win 7 or 8 of the rest of the games to make it in.

I keep thinking back to some of the brutal losses they've had the last month or 2.  Feels like this team should have 5 more wins - but that's the way it goes.

If the Brewers had the tie-breaker I would feel better, obviously.  It feels like the Brewers need to win 7 or 8 of the rest of the games to make it in.

I keep thinking back to some of the brutal losses they've had the last month or 2.  Feels like this team should have 5 more wins - but that's the way it goes.

32 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Philly is not playing well though. 10 games is enough to blow this. I'd think the Brewers have to go 7-2 though. Opponent quality matters least of all in baseball. The bad teams left on the schedules are probably more energized honestly at the end of the year when they have a chance to impact results. That's more exciting than slogging through July 20 games under .500.

The Phillies just got done playing a likely 90+ win team for two games and what is possibly a 100+ win team the Braves. Now they get to go play crummy teams. 

Honestly, we should not even be in this situation. We could have used bullpen help before we traded Hader...then we traded him and didn't really do much to replace him. The last month the bullpen has really let us down on numerous occasions, some of which they were handed the ball with a decent lead. 

32 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Philly is not playing well though. 10 games is enough to blow this. I'd think the Brewers have to go 7-2 though. Opponent quality matters least of all in baseball. The bad teams left on the schedules are probably more energized honestly at the end of the year when they have a chance to impact results. That's more exciting than slogging through July 20 games under .500.

The Phillies just got done playing a likely 90+ win team for two games and what is possibly a 100+ win team the Braves. Now they get to go play crummy teams. 

Honestly, we should not even be in this situation. We could have used bullpen help before we traded Hader...then we traded him and didn't really do much to replace him. The last month the bullpen has really let us down on numerous occasions, some of which they were handed the ball with a decent lead.