Brewers Winter Meetings Preview

4 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

On Sunday, the eyes of the baseball world will be upon San Diego and the Winter Meetings. Let’s take a look at what the Milwaukee Brewers need to accomplish this offseason. Obviously not all of it will be completed over the next week, but it is an opportunity to get all parties in one location, able to have discussions. 

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Image courtesy of Angela Peterson / USA TODAY NETWORK

Here we are in the first days of December, and the Brewers have been quite busy. They have made the standard end-of-season roster clean up moves. Brent Suter was claimed by the Rockies. Three other players were non-tendered. Hunter Renfroe was traded to the Angels for three pitchers. Last week, Kolten Wong was sent to Seattle in exchange for Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro. There is much more to do.

The week will be filled with rumors, some legitimate, others may be silly. It is also important to note that the annual Winter Meetings are set up for league meetings, rules meetings, minor-league meetings and more. It is also a place where people will bring their resumes and meet with teams, hoping to get jobs or internships. Those looking for jobs in baseball will be dressed in suits and ties. GMs and media are often seen in business casual, if not shorts and a beach button down shirt. 

If the season started today… 
I think that it is always important to know the current status. That way, we are able to look at where the roster stands, and see where there are weaknesses and strengths. This is all stuff that the front office does, though much more in-depth and thoroughly than any of us. But for us, it’s where we’re starting. If the season started today, what would the roster look like? 

 

C: Victor Caratini, 
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Brice Turang  
3B: Luis Urias  
SS: Willy Adames  
LF: Christian Yelich  
CF: Garrett Mitchell
RF: Jesse Winker 
DH: Keston Hiura 

More 40-Man Options: Mario Feliciano, Payton Henry, Jon Singleton, Mike Brosseau, Abraham Toro, Blake Perkins, Esteury Ruiz, Tyrone Taylor
Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: Alex Jackson, Cam Devanney, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Jackson Chourio, Weston Wilson, Thomas Dillard, Zavier Warren, 

SP: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Freddy Peralta, Aaron Ashby, 
RP: Devin Williams, Matt Bush, Jake Cousins, Hoby Milner, Peter Strzelecki, Javy Guerra, Justin Topa, Trevor Kelley 

More 40-Man Options: Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, Tyson Miller, Elvis Peguero, Cam Robinson, Ethan Small, Abner Uribe
Upper-Level, Non-40-Man Roster: Robert Gasser, Adam Seminaris, Victor Castaneda, Pablo Garabitos, Lucas Erceg, Nick Bennett, Brandon Knarr

Roster Needs 
Based on the current roster, the 40-man roster or others who are nearly big-league ready, the Brewers have several needs to work on this offseason. 

The Brewers lineup could be adequate if it was left alone at this point. However, they should consider adding a catcher. Victor Caratini is a solid veteran who hit .199 in 272 plate appearances in 2022. There is depth on the 40-man roster. Former Brewer farmhand Payton Henry was acquired, and Mario Feliciano hit .274 as a 23-year-old in Nashville. Alex Jackson was outrighted late last week. Jeferson Quero is likely a year or more away, but the 20-year-old went to the Arizona Fall League and held his own.  

The Brewers should primarily be focusing on adding to their bullpen. Josh Hader was traded, and Taylor Rogers, Brent Boxberger, Brent Suter, Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, and Luis Perdomo are no longer in the organization. If you were to take an honest look at the ‘current’ bullpen listed above, how many would you feel comfortable handing the ball to in the sixth or seventh inning, much less in late, high-leverage situations? Recent roster additions such as Elvis Peguero, Abner Uribe, and Cam Robinson certainly have big upside and good stuff, but will they be reliable if needed in 2023? 

Long-Term Deals, or Trades? 
We have heard and read a lot about the Brewers Big Three. The front office has said that they plan to have Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames on the roster in 2023. 

Will they be able to  agree to terms on long-term contract extensions with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and/or Willy Adames? 

The reality is that with two years of arbitration remaining and so many teams looking for an ace pitcher, the Brewers could get a ton for Brandon Woodruff, and several tons for Corbin Burnes. While saying neither will be traded is the right thing to do publicly, the Brewers need to gauge the interest in both pitchers. It would be irresponsible not to. 

Other Things to Consider

• There was a lot of talk during the season about needing an upgrade at third base, but after an injury and a slow start to the season, Luis Urias ended the season. He’s also just 25 and has plenty of room for continued growth. Because of the economics, it probably doesn’t make sense to go after Justin Turner or Evan Longoria. But maybe a deal with a Joey Wendle type to platoon with Urias might make a lot of sense and provide depth around the infield. 

• Could the Brewers realistically consider asking Christian Yelich to waive his no trade clause? Should they? 

• Is Eric Lauer more likely to be traded? 

• The answer to that question might just be determined by how ready they feel their outfield prospects are. Garrett Mitchell showed well in the season’s final month. Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer finished the year at Triple-A. Could Jackson Chourio really contribute to the Brewers as an 18-year-old sometime in 2023?  

• Will the Brewers make a Rule 5 draft pick? Could they potentially lose players in the Rule 5 draft? 

• What will the payroll be for 2023 and beyond? That might be the biggest question that fans won’t know, but we might be able to try to guess. 

The Brewers have had a busy offseason already, but there is still more work to be done. Matt Arnold is taking over as President of Baseball Operations in an important offseason that is filled with big decisions. What will he decide to do? What would you want them to do? 

Some of that work will continue in San Diego this week, and we’ll want to pay close attention.

 

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Jesse Winker is not going to be our everyday right fielder under any scenario. They may try to put him in the OF from time to time to give Yelich the opportunity to DH, but even then, he would be limited to LF. He's literally the worst defensive outfielder in the major leagues. 

Am I the only one who thinks Turang starts the season in triple-A?

 C: TBA/Caratini

1B: Tellez/TBA Righty

2B: Urias

SS: Adames

3B: Toro/Brosseau

OF: Yelich/Mitchell/Frelick/Taylor

DH: Winker

32 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Am I the only one who thinks Turang starts the season in triple-A?

 C: TBA/Caratini

1B: Tellez/TBA Righty

2B: Urias

SS: Adames

3B: Toro/Brosseau

OF: Yelich/Mitchell/Frelick/Taylor

DH: Winker

I think it's likely Turang starts in AAA. Considering he's unlikely to be a top 100 guy the upside to him starting in the Bigs is limited as opposed to keeping him in AAA for a few weeks to get another year of control 

30 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

 

Turang could end up the odd man out of the IF mix (or traded for an upgrade elsewhere if Adames is extended) for sure.

Despite his lack of MLB success to this point, Toro is projected for a 103 wRC+ by Steamer (vs a 95 for Turang) & I’d guess the Brewers internal projections have something similar.

Potential lineup before any moves with Steamer projected wRC+ 

Yelich (119)
Frelick (111)
Adames (111)
Winker (122)
Rowdy (123)
Urias (111)
Toro (103)
Caratini (95)
Mitchell (99)

Other Steamers of note include Taylor (99), Ruiz (104), Hiura (99) and Wiemer (102).

Upgrade catcher and I'll be quite happy with where we're at lineup-wise.

I personally think Turang is going to end up on the opening day roster. He's already spent a year and a half in AAA and has finally begun to show some signs of real power. Above all, though, he would be a huge upgrade over Wong on defense. With how heavily our team is built on run prevention, that could really prove to be the deciding factor. It seems to me like the FO's effort to trade Wong is more of an indication of the confidence they have in Turang to take over. 

Seth great article on winter meetings, but you forgot Adrian Houser. I feel he could be an important piece to the bullpen if we don't sign a 7th- 8th inning guy.

Do you think that the Winter Meetings will become a thing of the past? With the convenience of many free online video communication platforms available it would seem teams would look to move away from on-site meetings and conferences to save money and time. More and more companies have moved on to this business model. Over the past few years more transactions have occurred later during the hot stove season and the Winter Meetings have become just a way to keep MLB in the public eye.

17 hours ago, brewerralph said:

Seth great article on winter meetings, but you forgot Adrian Houser. I feel he could be an important piece to the bullpen if we don't sign a 7th- 8th inning guy.

Should we be counting on Cousins & Topa for bullpen in 2023? It seems injuries this year kept them from contributing. Hopefully both are healthy & able to add value next season. 

Man I would love to acquire Sean Murphy... We would give us a legit lineup!

Center deal around Mitchell + and I'm good with it... We need to hold onto Frelick and Wiemer.

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think Tellez is a terrible 1B, and supposedly Singleton is actually pretty good over there.

Singleton seems redundant. He would make sense if we trade Tellez for a RH hitting 1B … otherwise, I believe he will lose his spot on the 40-man roster. 

Just now, edfunderburk said:

Should we be counting on Cousins & Topa for bullpen in 2023? It seems injuries this year kept them from contributing. Hopefully both are healthy & able to add value next season. 

I believe Cousins makes OD bullpen... Bring back Rogers and I think the pen is done.

Rogers is no way as bad as he was with us last year.

5 hours ago, DR28 said:

Man I would love to acquire Sean Murphy... We would give us a legit lineup!

Center deal around Mitchell + and I'm good with it... We need to hold onto Frelick and Wiemer.

Sean Murphy would be an excellent pick-up at catcher and really strengthen our catcher position. However, I would rather trade Frelick rather than Mitchell. He has much greater defensive skills ( arm strength and speed) and power over Frelick.  This is much more important in the run prevention model the Brewers have embraced. And with Yelich at the top of the order we have the lead-off position covered for many years.

15 minutes ago, Sixtolezcano said:

Sean Murphy would be an excellent pick-up at catcher and really strengthen our catcher position. However, I would rather trade Frelick rather than Mitchell. He has much greater defensive skills ( arm strength and speed) and power over Frelick.  This is much more important in the run prevention model the Brewers have embraced. And with Yelich at the top of the order we have the lead-off position covered for many years.

Mitchell may have more raw power than Frelick, but Frelick has actually demonstrated more in game power than Mitchell in the minor leagues. And that's unlikely to change barring a complete swing alteration from Mitchell.

Frelick is more than just a leadoff hitter. He's one of the best minor league hitters period. There's a reason why Frelick is a consensus top 100 prospect and Mitchell is not. 

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Mitchell may have more raw power than Frelick, but Frelick has actually demonstrated more in game power than Mitchell in the minor leagues. And that's unlikely to change barring a complete swing alteration from Mitchell.

Frelick is more than just a leadoff hitter. He's one of the best minor league hitters period. There's a reason why Frelick is a consensus top 100 prospect and Mitchell is not. 

Frelick is untradable. You don’t trade the best hitter in all of minor league ball. He’s also strong as heck and imo, will eventually develop 20 HR power.

Burnes and Woodruff are at their apex of value. If Arnold is going to trade them, he needs to do it now/at the Winter Meetings. I don’t think we should horde these two pitchers and not support them with a viable offense via trade/free agency. Basically, don’t play the middle. Either tear down and trade them and get a haul OR go “all in” for 2023+ and support them, otherwise we’ll be wasting their starts and potentially “waiting” for them to get injured and be useless as trade bait. My 2 cents.